Can San Diego Find Success At Home?

Let’s check out the Brewers vs Padres MLB odds for the four games between the Brewers and Padres.

The San Diego Padres will look to get back on track with a four-game home series against the Milwaukee Brewers. The Padres had previously been on a road trip on the East Coast and have gone 4-6 in their last ten games.

That pushed them to below .500 on the season, where they’re 38-40.

The Brewers are 44-30 and have gone 6-4 in their last ten games. Milwaukee leads the MLB NL Central by 7.5 games.

They’ll look to keep it that way in the Milwaukee Brewers standings throughout the four games this weekend.

• That said, the first game between the Brewers and Padres is projected to be close. The Brewers are -109 on the moneyline, while the Padres are -101. Meanwhile, the total is at 8.5, but the over is juiced to -115.

Milwaukee’s Joey Ortiz

The Milwaukee Brewers traded Corbin Burnes to the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for a package that included infielder Joey Ortiz.

Burnes has been consistently good for the Orioles. However, Joey Ortiz has also played really well in his first season with the Brewers. Milwaukee starter Bryse Wilson told reporters he thought Baltimore messed up by trading away Ortiz. Wilson went on to talk about how Ortiz hits and plays elite defense.

This isn’t a total surprise from Ortiz. He was a top-30 prospect in the Orioles’ system when drafted in 2019. Ultimately, Baltimore has a lot of young talent and didn’t have a spot for Ortiz. Instead, they got an elite arm that has put them at the top of the American League.

But ultimately, the Brewers took advantage and got a great package between DL Hall and Ortiz. This could be a win-win trade, after all.

Manny Machado Struggling At The Plate

On Tuesday, Manny Machado got real with reports after a 4-3 loss to the Phillies. Machado was asked about missing some pitches and told reporters he was “pissed” at himself. Machado talked about how Tylor Megill also threw two pitches down the middle that he fouled off in a series against the Mets earlier over the weekend.

Machado knows he’s behind the eight-ball a little bit.

Brewers vs Padres MLB Odds For Game 1:

RL: Brewers -1.5 (+150) ML: Brewers -109, O/U: 8.5 -115/-105

The Brewers will give Bryse Wilson the ball to begin the series. He’s a right-handed pitcher who has allowed a .283 ISO and wOBA of .500 to his last 51 lefties. Wilson has been much better against righties but has struggled against lefties all season long.

Lucky for Wilson, the Padres’ projected lineup has hit a .143 ISO and wOBA of .327 over the last 30 days against righties. The lineup has five lefties, but those lefties have hit a .097 ISO against righties in the previous 30 days.

Adam Mazur will start for San Diego. The rookie pitcher has also allowed a .227 ISO and wOBA of .528 to his first 32 lefties faced in his career. Like the Padres, Milwaukee will have four lefties, but those four lefties have hit a .084 ISO and wOBA of .323 against righties in the last month.

While Wilson and Mazur both struggle against lefties, neither lineup has lefties that have hit consistently against righties. These teams certainly don’t have any MLB MVP odds candidates. We’d back the Under 8.5 (-105) in Game 1.

In Game 2, it’ll be Colin Rea for the Brewers. Rea has only earned 17.4% of strikeouts and has allowed a .216 ISO to his last 58 lefties. But again, the Padres don’t have many threats from the left-handed side regarding power.

Meanwhile, Dylan Cease will pitch for the Padres. He’s supposed to be the ace of the staff. However, he’s allowed a .225 ISO and wOBA of .361 to his last 121 batters.

Cease is still getting high strikeouts and limiting walks, but he’s also allowed 35% of fly balls with only 31.2% of ground balls induced over the last month.

Analytically, Rea has pitched better. Consider an upset from the Brewers in Game 2.

Carlos Rodriguez will head to the mound for the Brewers on Saturday. He’s also a righty who has allowed a .171 ISO and wOBA of .377 to his first 40 batters this season. Rodriguez has struck out 8.7% of righties while walking 13%.

Fernando Tatis and Ha Seeong-Kim are two batters that could thrive against Rodriguez in this game.

Conversly, it’ll be Randy Vasquez for the Padres. Vasquez has allowed a .267 ISO and wOBA of .421 to his last 95 batters. He’s given up much power to both sides of the plate and has allowed a wOBA of .539 to 44 lefties over the last 30 days.

Batters like Willy Adames and Jackson Chourio have good matchups and would be worthy of MLB player props wagers. Back the Over in Game 3.

Finally, it’ll be Tobias Myers for the Brewers in the finale. Myers has held teams to a .105 ISO and wOBA of .258 over the last 30 days. He’s not racking up strikeouts, but he’s pitching consistently better than anyone else in the rotation who’s not named Freddy Peralta.

Meanwhile, Michael King will take the mound for the Padres. Like Myers, King has been incredible over the last 30 days, limiting teams to a .098 ISO and wOBA of .263 in the previous month. This should be a fun pitcher’s duel to finish out the series. Back the Under when the Brewers vs Padres MLB odds come out for this game.

For MLB betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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