Can Seattle Continue To Lead In The AL West?

Mariners vs Nationals Prediction: More Great Pitching From Seattle

The Seattle Mariners are only three games above .500. However, they still lead the AL West by three games.

Now that we’re a third of the way into the season, it’s surprising to see the AL West having such a down year. The Texas Rangers won the World Series last year and are 24-27. Meanwhile, the typically consistent Houston Astros are 22-28 on the season.

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The Mariners have it easy right now. It’ll also likely be easy, even on the road, against the Washington Nationals this weekend.

The Nationals have cooled off over the last ten MLB games, going 2-8. They’re also on a three-game losing streak.

  • Therefore, the Mariners are -150 favorites, and the total is currently at 7.5. Still, the Over is juiced to -120 for tonight’s showdown.

We’ll provide our Mariners vs Nationals prediction for the entire three-game series below.

Mariners logo Mariners vs Nationals Nationals logo

Records: Mariners (27-24)/Nationals (21-27)
Location: Nationals Park, Washington, D.C.
Streaming: MASN, ROOTNW

Seattle Claimed Eduardo Salazar

The Mariners have added Eduardo Salazar off waivers from the Dodgers. However, he won’t be on the MLB roster yet. Instead, he’ll take his talents to Triple-A Tacoma after the Mariners sent Sammy Peralta for assignment.

Salazar signed a minor league deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers in the offseason and even made a big league appearance. In seven starts for Oklahoma City (Triple-A), he’s had a 4.61 ERA in 33.2 innings.
Don’t be surprised if Salazar makes an appearance for Seattle at some point this season.

Could Keibert Ruiz Lose His Starting Job?

The Nationals hoped Keibert Ruiz would be the franchise’s catcher for a decade. Some thought he’d be in the MLB MVP odds discussion throughout his career.

But this season, it doesn’t look like that’ll be the case. Ruiz was added from the Dodgers in a package deal that sent Trea Turner to Los Angeles.

Ruiz was a stud in Triple-A and hit above .310 through 52 games in 2022. There are rumblings that he’ll eventually be replaced by Drew Millas, who is tearing it up in Washington’s minor league system.

Mariners vs Nationals Prediction & Odds For Game 1:

RL: Mariners -1.5 (+115) ML: Mariners -150, O/U 7.5 -120/+100

⚾ Game 1 ⚾

  • Friday, 6:40 pm ET
  • George Kirby vs MacKenzie Gore

Although not confirmed, the Washington Nationals’ media believes MacKenzie Gore will pitch for the Nationals. Gore is a lefty who has struck out 27% of batters.

However, he’s also allowed a .326 wOBA, thanks to a 33.3% line drive rate and a 37.3% ground ball rate. Still, he’s held ISO numbers to .128 and has been consistent against both sides regarding limiting power.

He’ll go up against a Mariners lineup that has hit a .173 ISO and wOBA of .315 with 24.8% of strikeouts. Gore should rack up Ks, going up against five hitters that have struck out at least 28.2% of the time against lefties this season.

On the other hand, George Kirby will get the ball for Game 1 of the series. He’s got a 3.99 ERA and has allowed a .211 ISO and wOBA of .319 to his first 118 lefties. Kirby is excellent at keeping walks down, but he’s not getting many ground balls and giving up too many fly balls and line drives this season.

However, Kirby will likely improve after looking at last year’s stats. He’s also facing a Washington lineup that has hit a wOBA of just .297 against righties this year.

Ultimately, the MLB schedule today is loaded with great pitching. Therefore, the Under 7.5 (+100) is the appealing play in this one.

⚾ Game 2 ⚾

  • Saturday, 4:05 pm ET
  • Logan Gilbert vs Trevor Williams

In the second game, Trevor Williams will likely get the ball. He’s a veteran righty who has held MLB teams to a .055 ISO and wOBA of .250 to begin the year. His strikeout rate isn’t high, but his ground ball rate has reached 45.5%, and he’s limited walks to 7.7%. Analytically, Williams is one of the more underrated pitchers in the league.

That said, the Mariners typically strike out even more against righties and have less power against righties too. Luckily for Seattle, they’re only facing one lefty in this three-game series.

Meanwhile, it’ll be Logan Gilbert for the Mariners. The right-handed ace has a 3.20 ERA after allowing a .135 ISO and wOBA of .266 to his first 249 batters. He’s not adding a ton of strikeouts against righties, but he’s doing everything else very well.

Our Mariners vs Nationals prediction for Game 2 is that the game will go Under.

⚾ Game 3 ⚾

  • Sunday, 1:35 pm ET
  • Bryan Woo vs Mitchell Parker

In the finale, rookie lefty Mitchell Parker will likely be penciled in as the starter for Washington. Parker also doesn’t have high strikeouts, but he’s limited teams to a .119 ISO and wOBA of .290 with nearly 48% of grounders and just 5.2% of walks.

Parker won’t add as many strikeouts as Gore likely will tonight, but Parker is still pitching at a high level and should have success against an inconsistent Mariners lineup.

On the other hand, Bryan Woo will get the ball for the Mariners. He’s only faced 55 batters but has a 2-0 record with a .57 ERA on the season. Unlike Parker, Woo has struck out 27.3% of batters and has added 36.4% of strikeouts against righties. It’s a small sample size, but it’s hard to ignore these numbers.

With Woo back, we don’t have to worry about the Seattle Mariners Wild Card standings.

Back the Mariners for Sunday’s game.

For MLB betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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