Can the Guardians Out-Pitch Brewers In Weekend Series?

The Cleveland Guardians will take their five-game winning streak to Milwaukee for a three-game series over the weekend.

That five-game winning streak has given the Guardians a four-game lead in the AL Central, where they’re now 72-49 on the season. Oddly enough, Cleveland has a run differential of only 83 runs.

The Royals, who are third in the AL Central, have an 84-run differential but six fewer wins than the Guardians.

Meanwhile, the Brewers are in control of the NL Central. Milwaukee leads the second-place Cincinnati Reds by nine games.

A few more series wins, and the Brewers will likely have their division locked up before any other team in the MLB.

That said, this weekend is a heavyweight battle between two squads with elite pitching. The oddsmakers can’t even decide on the better MLB team for tonight’s game.

The Guardians and Brewers are both -108 on the moneyline, and the total is currently at 8, with both sides at -110. That’s how tight the series will be this weekend.

Let’s dive deeper into our Guardians vs Brewers series preview below.

Will Sam Hentges Ever Return?

Cleveland has produced some really good pitchers this season.

They won’t have anyone near the top of the Cy Young odds 2024, but they’ve collectively had success. One of their main contributors in the bullpen, Sam Hentges, went down on July 12 with shoulder inflammation.

The left-hander was expected to appear on August 4 but was removed from his rehab assignment as his shoulder was still ailing.

Hentges had a 3.04 ERA and a .972 WHIP before being added to the shelf. The Guardians are hopeful he’ll return for the playoffs but don’t know if he’ll be healthy enough to return.

Christian Yelich Opts for Season-Ending Surgery

Despite the Brewers in a MLB playoff race, Christian Yelich has decided to end his season early and get surgery for his back injury.

The former National League MVP led the National League in batting average and on-base percentage before being placed on the Injured List in late July.

With his injury, the World Series Odds 2024 have the Brewers 11th on the board.

He’ll be missed, but the Brewers have played well without him over the last couple of weeks and will likely continue to down the stretch.

The Guardians vs Brewers Series Preview & Odds For Game 1:

RL: Guardians -1.5 (+152) ML: Orioles -108, O/U: 8 -110/-110

Guardians vs Brewers Series Preview

⚾ Game 1 ⚾

• Friday, 8:10 pm ET
• Gavin Williams vs Aaron Civale

Gavin Williams will take the hill for the Guardians in Game 1. He’s a righty who has struck out 30% of his last 110 batters.

He’s also held those same opponents to a .141 ISO and has allowed only 6.4% of walks. Williams has struggled slightly with lefties, allowing 36.8% of line drives.

• But the Brewers have hit just 17.4% of line drives against righties as a projected lineup over the last month.

Meanwhile, the Brewers will counter with Aaron Civale. Civale is another right-handed pitcher who has struggled against both sides of the plate over the last month.

He’s allowed a .256 ISO and wOBA of .390 to his last 87 batters. In addition, he’s struck out only 17.2% of batters in the last month and has allowed 48.4% of hard contact with a 10.9% barrel percentage.

The Guardians haven’t dominated offensively against righties. But they’ve got four bats that can take Civale deep, including Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor.

A couple of mistakes from Civale are all we’ll need. Grab the Guardians at -108 to win Game 1 of this series.

José evens it up! 🤩#ForTheLand pic.twitter.com/8vneSaJr1z

— Cleveland Guardians (@CleGuardians) August 11, 2024

⚾ Game 2 ⚾

• Saturday, 7:15 pm ET
• Tanner Bibee vs Freddy Peralta

It’ll be Tanner Bibee for the series’ second game. Bibee is 10-4 with a 3.39 ERA this season. He’s also held his last 85 batters to a .123 ISO and wOBA of .257.

Bibee has walked below 5% of batters over the previous month but has still allowed 35.8% of fly balls in that time.

Beyond that, he has only struck out 16.5%. Eventually, his high fly ball rate and low ground ball rate will get to him.

• On the other hand, Milwaukee will pitch its ace, Freddy Peralta. Peralta has struck out 24.2% of batters over the last month but has actually allowed a .305 ISO and wOBA of .383 to his previous 65 righties.

Lucky for Peralta, he’ll only face two righties in the Cleveland lineup. That’ll save him from disaster. Peralta needs to limit walks against lefties better, and he’ll be good to go.

Let’s grab the Brewers in the second game of this series.

⚾ Game 3 ⚾

• Sunday, 2:10 pm ET
• Ben Lively vs. Colin Rea

Per our Guardians vs Brewers series preview, Game 3 could be a rubber match.

• The Guardians will throw righty Ben Lively, who has struggled badly against lefties over the last month. Lively has allowed a .333 ISO and wOBA of .391 to his previous 70 lefties.

Milwaukee’s projected lineup has four lefties who have combined to hit just a .067 ISO and wOBA of .244 over the last month.

Milwaukee will pitch Colin Rea, who has also struggled with righties over the last month, allowing a .259 ISO and wOBA of .360. This is despite earning 25.8% of strikeouts against righties over the previous month.

In the Cleveland lineup, the Guardians will likely feature only two righties who have combined to hit a .150 ISO and wOBA of .292 over the last 30 days.

Lively and Rea don’t lead in any MLB rankings, but their matchups are solid. Let’s take the Under in Game 3.

For MLB betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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