Cardinals vs Nationals Prediction: Gray Big Favorite Friday
St. Louis Visits Washington For Weekend Series
The St. Louis Cardinals (45-41) visit the Washington Nationals (41-46) for a three-game series starting Friday. The Cardinals have been playing better recently, going 18-13 since June 1. That’s allowed St. Louis to move into second place in the NL Central and into a wild card spot. St. Louis still has a run differential of -37, which gives them a X-W/L record of 39-47. The Nationals are in fourth place in the NL East and 4.5 games out of a wild card spot. The Nationals were on a 1-7 slide before winning the last two games against the Mets. Sonny Gray and Patrick Corbin are the scheduled starters Friday. The Cardinals vs Nationals prediction sees Gray -180 over Corbin and the total is 8.5-over (-120).
St. Louis is averaging 4.0 runs per game and 3.9 runs against left-handers. The Cardinals don’t show much difference between home and away scoring. St. Louis is No. 17 in team batting with a .240 average. The Cardinals are No. 24 in home runs.
The pitching staff has been a little better than average. The Cardinals are No. 12 in team ERA and have converted 34 of 46 save opportunities. The relief pitching is one reason why St. Louis is in the middle of the MLB playoffs picture.
Washington is scoring 4.2 runs per game and is No. 21 in team batting average and No. 29 in home runs. The Nationals are No. 3 in stolen bases, which helps manufacture some runs.
The Nationals have done a fair job on the mound. Washington ranks No. 14 in team ERA and have converted 24 of 37 save attempts.
Cardinals vs Nationals
Date & Time: Friday, July 5th, 6:45 p.m. ET
Friday’s Game
Gray is having another nice season. He’ll enter the game with a 9-5 record and 2.95 ERA. St. Louis has won 10 of his 15 starts and are 4-2 when he starts on the road. The Cardinals have won two of those road starts by 7-6 scores, so Gray hasn’t been as strong away from home.
Corbin is having a rough go of things so far. He’s 1-8 with an ERA of 5.49 and the Nationals are 5-12 when he starts. Washington is 2-5 when Corbin starts at home and 4-3 in totals in those games. He hasn’t gotten a ton of run support, as the Nationals average 3.2 runs per game with Corbin on the mound.
St. Louis is just 6-6 as a road favorite this season. The Nationals are 14-18 as a home underdog and 4-4 when getting +150 or more. Washington is also 1-7 in totals in those eight games. The price on Gray is simply too high to take in this game, especially with him pitching better at home. The under 8.5 looks to offer the best value in this game.
Saturday’s Game
The Cardinals vs Nationals prediction for Saturday is essentially calling this one a toss-up. Lance Lynn gets the start for the Cardinals. He’s been solid for the most part this season. Lynn is 4-3 with a 3.59 ERA and the Cardinals are 10-7 when he starts. St. Louis is just 3-5 when Lynn starts on the road, where the Cardinals allow 5.6 runs per game. St. Louis allows 4.4 runs per game when Lynn starts at home.
MacKenzie Gore gets the ball for Washington and he’s 6-7 with a 3.47 ERA. The Nationals have gone 7-10 when he starts and 5-7 when he starts at home.
The total here is likely to be 8 or 8.5. Both starters have pretty solid ERAs, which should be enough to keep the game from hitting 9. You MLB predictions today like this one to go over the total.
Sunday’s Game
The Cardinals vs Nationals prediction for Sunday’s game sees Kyle Gibson and DJ Herz as the starting pitchers. Gibson is having a pretty solid season with a 6-3 record and 3.88 ERA. St. Louis is 5-3 when Gibson starts on the road and 8-8 when he starts overall. The Cardinals allow just 3.0 runs per game on the road when Gibson takes the mound away from home.
Like most young pitchers, Herz is having some ups and downs. He’s 1-2 with a 4.67 ERA and has had a couple of brilliant starts and a few bad ones. When Herz is on his game, he’s pretty dominating. When he isn’t, things can get ugly. There’s no real way of knowing which Herz you’re going to get on the mound. He has fanned 27 batters in 21 1/3 innings, so he has decent stuff. The Nationals are 3-3 when he starts.
This is a tough game to call. It certainly shouldn’t be in one of your best MLB bets today. The unpredictability of Herz almost ensures that. The safest way to play this one is the under.
