Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Reds Series Preview and Odds

Reds Have Been On Fire

For much of this season, the Cincinnati Reds have been playing well below the lofty expectations many had for them after a breakout 2023 campaign.

Their play over the past few weeks has done a lot to change that narrative, though, as Cincinnati has won 12 of 16 and just had a seven-game winning streak snapped on Sunday. They’ll try to start a new one on Tuesday night against the Cleveland Guardians, who are 20 games over .500.

  • The Guardians vs Reds trends favor Cincinnati, but the Vegas odds have Cleveland as -125 moneyline favorites and as +128 favorites on the runline. The total is nine runs.

Late in May, the Reds were 20-30 and looked poised to completely fall out of both the MLB NL Wild Card picture and the MLB NL Central race.

However, thanks to a string of wins against the Chicago Cubs—who have fallen from first in the division to last—Cincinnati is right in the mix. The Reds can thank both a resurgent offense, led by Elly De La Cruz, and the starting rotation, which has redeemed itself after a brutal start.

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The Guardians shouldn’t be overlooked even though they’re playing .500 ball over the past two weeks. Cleveland has been one of the best teams in baseball all season, with a top-ten offense and probably the best bullpen in the Majors.

The offense can be up-and-down but José Ramírez is playing like a MVP candidate, Josh Naylor has been one of the best run producers in the Majors and David Fry came from nowhere to post a 1.046 OPS. This is a very good team.

Guardians logo Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds Reds logo

📅Day/Time: Tuesday, June 11th, 7:10 p.m. ET
📍Location: Great American Ball Park; Cincinnati, Ohio

Pitching Matchups Are Great

Both teams have good starters lined up for each of the two games in this abbreviated in-state rivalry series. Cincinnati has Nick Martinez and Nick Lodolo set to throw while Cleveland will use Triston McKenzie and Tanner Bibee. Based on the Guardians vs Reds trends.

Cleveland may have a slight edge regarding the starter matchups but Martinez has been a solid swingman and Lodolo looks like someone who could garner Cy Young votes at the end of the season.

For the Guardians, McKenzie is walking over five batters per nine innings yet still has been able to keep runs from scoring at a decent rate. Bibee, on the other hand, has been Cleveland’s top starter with a sub-four ERA and impressive peripherals.

The MLB betting odds for his start opposite Lodolo on Wednesday could be close to a toss-up.

Based on McKenzie’s track record and Martinez’ underwhelming strikeout numbers, the Guardians are the favorite for Tuesday’s game. Even with reduced fastball velocity and relatively high home run totals, McKenzie has great offspeed stuff and is able to keep Cleveland in games when he toes the rubber.

Reds Have Advantage On The Bases

While the Guardians do steal plenty of bases — they’re 8th in baseball — even they don’t hold a candle to the No. 2 Reds, who have stolen 96 bases thus far.

Of course, many of those are courtesy of Elly De La Cruz and his MLB-leading 34 swipes. He is a terror on the basepaths and while he also leads the Majors with 87 strikeouts, when he does reach base, you can be pretty sure that he’ll try to go.

His Cincinnati teammates also do a lot of stealing and it’s a huge part of the Reds’ offensive gameplan because they don’t hit many home runs or have a high team OPS. So, they need to push the envelope based on how the Guardians vs Reds trends have gone all season. Lately, the Reds’ aggressive style has translated into wins.

Cleveland’s pitchers will have their hands full not only dealing with the Reds’ batters at the dish but also their baserunners around the diamond. That may not be as big a problem for the Guardians’ relievers while it could cause some issues for McKenzie and Bibee.

Roll With Cleveland In Game 1

  • Today’s MLB odds have the Guardians as -125 moneyline favorites and while that may not be great value, Cleveland is the side to back here.

The Guardians are a very good defensive team that does just enough offensively to build a lead for its shutdown ‘pen, which is No. 1 in MLB in pretty much every major category.

In order to have a chance, the Reds need to strike very early against McKenzie on Tuesday and Bibee on Wednesday and that’s much easier said than done.

Consider also taking the under nine runs. Neither team is a particular offensive powerhouse and both projected starters are having good seasons. Even in Cincinnati’s bandbox ballpark, scoring could be low.

For MLB predictions today,  betting analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine


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