Orioles’ Burnes Make First Start Against Former Team

Many baseball fans will be watching this series between the Milwaukee Brewers and Baltimore Orioles. There are plenty of different storylines heading into this one. The Brewers vs Orioles odds have the latter favored at -205 to win the three-game series.

The first storyline is Jackson Holliday’s at-bats for the Orioles. This guy has the potential to break many MLB records in his career. Meanwhile, DL Hall, the former Orioles prospect, will take the mound on Saturday for the Brewers. Then, we’ll get to see Corbin Burnes, the former Brewers’ ace, on the mound for the Orioles on Sunday.

This will be a fun series. Check out our full breakdown of the Brewers vs Orioles odds for this weekend-long series.

Jeferson Quero’s Opening Day Injury

Milwaukee’s third-best prospect, according to MLB Pipeline, is underdog surgery.

Jeferson Queto, a catching prospect in Triple-A, injured his shoulder on a first-base pickoff attempt. He received imaging, which showed a subluxed shoulder. Once the inflammation went down, however, the injury was worse than expected. Quero suffered a torn labrum on his throwing shoulder and won’t be able to play in 2024.

Quero had the potential to play in the big leagues this season.

Jackson Holliday’s Call Up

The No. 1 overall pick in the MLB Draft in 2022 was just called up into the big leagues.

Jackson Holliday, the son of MLB great Matt Holliday, recorded his first career RBI in his MLB Debut. There was talk that he would make the MLB out of Spring Training, but the Orioles wanted to ensure he was truly ready. Once he had success in Triple-A, the 20-year-old phenom got the call.

Although he hasn’t done anything special for the Orioles yet, Holliday is batting in the nine-spot to keep the pressure off his shoulders. He’ll eventually start to hit.

Brewers vs Orioles Odds For Game 1: RL: Brewers -1.5 (+164) ML: Orioles -120, O/U 8 -110/-110.

The Brewers will try and get out to a fast start in this interleague series against the Orioles. Milwaukee will send out Freddy Peralta, who has been magnificent to start the year. Peralta has a 3.09 ERA and has held teams to a .105 ISO and wOBA of .206. He’s also earned nearly 35% of strikeouts and has walked only 4.7% of batters.

Since last season, the Orioles’ projected lineup has only hit a .291 wOBA against righties. The lineup has also struck out 25.8% of the time and has five batters who have struck out at least 23.4% of the time against righties. The Orioles certainly don’t match up well against Peralta.

Meanwhile, the Orioles will roll with Tyler Wells. To begin the year, Wells has struck out only 20.8% of batters and has allowed a .258 ISO to righties. This was his problem last year, too. Wells gave up a .257 ISO and 39.4% of fly balls to right-handed batters, and he even has a right-handed thrower.

On the other hand, Wells has only earned 5.9% of strikeouts against lefties to begin the year. That will likely get higher as the season progresses. He struck out 30.3% of lefties last season.

With Milwaukee’s projected lineup, the Brewers have seven guys hitting a wOBA of at least .313 against righties. The Brewers have the edge on the road. Milwaukee is one of our best baseball bets today.

In Game 2 of the series, DL Hall will get the call. He’s a former Orioles prospect who was traded in a package deal that sent Corbin Burnes to Baltimore. Hall has limited his ISO to .075 and has only walked 8.9% of batters to begin the season. Still, righties have hit a .391 wOBA against Hall, who is a left-handed pitcher. Hall has also struggled to earn high strikeouts against righties, earning only 10.8% of strikeouts.

Hall has much potential, but it will take him some time to put it all together.

But while there’s been so much talk about the Orioles’ lineup, it’s probably overhyped. Baltimore has Ryan Mountcastle and Adley Rutschman hitting solid power numbers, but overall, the lineup has hit under a .300 wOBA against lefties dating back to last season.

Conversely, the Orioles will pitch Dean Kremer, who has put up decent stats to begin the year. Kremer has a 2.19 ERA and 11 strikeouts in two starts. While he’s pitched well against lefties, righties have hit a .269 ISO and woBA of .334. This is the opposite of what happened last year when Kremer was terrible against lefties and finished righties easily. Therefore, it’s also unlikely Kremer will sustain this type of success despite striking out 22.9% of batters and only walking 2.1%.

Based on our MLB expert picks, this game has the potential to go over the total when the lines come out.

In the series finale, Colin Rea will take the mound. While he has only five strikeouts against 47 batters this season, Rea still has a 1.64 ERA and a 2-0 record. Rea has done some good things against lefties, but he has ultimately allowed a .419 wOBA to righties to begin the year.

His successful start has been due to his success against lefties as a right-handed pitcher. But it’s hard to imagine that continues. Last year, Rea gave up an ISO of .251 and wOBA of .351 to 247 lefties. Therefore, we’re not buying his early success.

Rea will take on Corbin Burnes, who will make his first career start against the Brewers. Burnes had always pitched for the Brewers until this year, so there will be some emotion there. However, the Orioles are home, so it’s not like Burnes will pitch in front of many Milwaukee fans.

That said, Burnes has been almost unhittable. He’s given up a 1.93 ERA with 20 strikeouts. He’s also walked just 2.9% of batters and has allowed a wOAB of .218 with 47.9% of strikeouts. Baltimore knew they needed an ace to compete this season and made a tremendous deal with the Brewers. So far, it’s worked out well.

While Rea likely won’t sustain his success, Burnes should. We’d back the Orioles in Game 3, which could be the rubber match of the three-game series. The Orioles should also be favorites when the Brewers vs Orioles odds come out for this game.

Brewers vs Orioles Lines

For MLB picks, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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