Could Houston Be Upset In Another Series?

The Houston Astros and Los Angeles Angels will begin a three-game series over the weekend. While the Astros have been dealing with a bunch of injuries to their starting rotation, Houston still has a fighting chance of getting into the MLB Playoffs.

Meanwhile, the Angels are 24-38, and there are no signs of Mike Trout coming back anytime soon. It looks like another wash for the Angels, who have struggled to find success since Trout came up for the big league roster.

Therefore, the Astros are still -195 favorites on the road in Game 1 of this three-game series.

Here’s an Astros vs Angels preview for the weekend-long series in the American League West.

Urquidy, Javier Done For The Season

The Astros announced earlier this week that Jose Urquidy and Christian Javier will miss the rest of the season due to elbow surgery.

The starting rotation has been hit with countless injuries to their starters, including Lance McCullers, Luis Garcia, and now Urquidy and Javier.

Anthony Rendon is Returning Soon

The Angels have been without Anthony Rendon since late April with a partial left hamstring tear. However, he’s ramping up his rehab work and will eventually return by the end of the month if all goes well.

Astros vs Angels Preview & Odds For Game 1:

ML: Angels +160, O/U 8.5 +105/-125

The Astros will give Framber Valdez another turn in the rotation. He holds a 3.95 ERA but has limited teams to a .116 ISO while inducing 66% of ground balls. The lefty doesn’t get many strikeouts, but he can keep the damage down by getting all those ground balls.

Meanwhile, the Angels have hit a .245 ISO and wOBA of .405 against lefties over the last 30 days. They’ll be in line for a good evening against Valdez in Game 1.

While Griffin Canning hasn’t been elite, holding a 4.69 ERA, he’s still held righties to a .097 ISO and wOBA of .267. He’ll be in line to face a bunch of righties in the Houston order.

Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman were unavailable for Wednesday’s game against the Cardinals due to minor issues, so we don’t even know if they’ll play.

That said, the Astros are only getting production from Yordan Alvarez and Jake Meyers against righties over the last 30 days. Therefore, six or seven batters in the Houston lineup have been below-average against righties in the previous month.

We’d consider backing the Angels in the series’ first game at the MLB betting lines of +160.

In the second game of the series, the Astros will give Hunter Brown the ball. Brown has allowed a .209 ISO and wOBA of .373 to his first 247 batters this season. While his strikeout rate is high, his walk rate is also high. That’s one of many reasons for his 6.18 ERA on the season.

However, maybe he’ll turn things around by going up against an Angels lineup with just a .297 wOBA against righties over the last 30 days.

Brown will take on Tyler Anderson of the Angels, who is a lefty holding a 2.37 ERA. That ERA probably won’t last as Anderson has struck out just 16.4% of batters with 10.2% of walks. In addition, Anderson has given up a .158 ISO. He’s kept teams off the bases, but a 2.37 ERA is elite, and his analytics aren’t.

Plus, the Astros are better against lefties. Jeremy Pena, Yanier Diaz, Mauricio Dubon, and Alex Bregman have all hit for power against lefties. Still, most of the lineup lacks consistency against lefties over the last month.

Our MLB picks will include the Astros on Saturday,

Justin Verlander is expected to pitch in the series finale. He’s allowed a .199 ISO and wOBA of .318 with only 22% of strikeouts. Yet, he’s managed to keep his ERA at 3.63 and has put together another decent season. Still, Verlander’s ERA could be in jeopardy soon. He’s allowed 33.6% of fly balls and 28.2% of line drives, with just 23.5% of ground balls induced. That’s a recipe for failure.

Verlander will go toe-to-toe with Patrick Sandoval of the Angels. Sandoval has a 5.00 ERA on the year but has held teams to a .128 ISO with 24% of strikeouts. Sandoval’s been a bit unlucky throughout the year, but if the analytics stay the same, Sandoval should surely finish the season with an ERA at least below 5.

Sandoval has earned 45% of grounders and has limited teams to 24.1% of fly balls. The lefty has even walked below 10% of batters.

Despite the ERA discrepancy, we’d side with the Angels in Game 3 of this Astros vs Angels preview.

For MLB predictions, betting analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine

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