Cubs Look to Close First Half Strong Against Cards
Cubs vs Cardinals MLB Predictions Reflect on Tight NL Wild Card Race
The Chicago Cubs conclude Major League Baseball’s first half with a four-game set against the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium. Kyle Hendricks will square off against Sonny Gray in Friday’s opener (8:15 p.m. ET).
This is already the third series between the National League Central rivals this season, with the Cardinals holding a 4-1 edge.
- St. Louis is -1.5 (+110) on the run line and -198 on the moneyline for the opener, with Chicago +1.5 (-130) and +164.
Meanwhile, the projected total is 8 with an edge to the Over at -120. Bettors can get the Under at +100. The Cardinals are also -165 favorites to win the series, compared to +145 for the Cubs.
What can bettors expect? We break down both MLB teams to help bettors make their Cubs vs Cardinals MLB predictions.
Cubs vs Cardinals 
⏰Day/Time: 📍Location: Busch Stadium in St. Louis, Missouri
📺Streaming: MLB.TV
Cubs vs Cardinals Betting Trends
The Chicago Cubs have covered in six of their last seven games to improve to 45-49 against the run line. As for the Over/Under, the Cubs are 40-50-4.
- The St. Louis Cardinals, meanwhile, are 46-46 against the run line. That includes 5-5 over their last 10 games. Their record against the Over/Under is 43-46-3.
Be sure to remember these betting trends when analyzing any Cubs vs Cardinals MLB predictions.
Cubs Fading Fast
Chicago is among baseball’s biggest disappointments this season, though its performance against Baltimore offers some hope. It swept the Orioles in three games at Camden Yards, outscoring the American League East leaders 21-2.
The Cubs, who have now tossed shutouts in three of the last four Chicago Cubs games, are 45-49 and tied for last place in the National League Central.
While the expanded wild card, there’s more room for opportunity for struggling teams like Chicago. But with the trade deadline approaching later this month, the Cubs need to quickly turn things around.
It certainly doesn’t help that Cody Bellinger, who’d hit nine homers with a .742 OPS, will spend the next few weeks on the injured list after fracturing his left middle finger. Bellinger was hit by a pitch on the hand in Wednesday’s 4-0 win.
The upcoming All-Star break reduces the number of games he’ll miss, but it’s unclear how long he will be out. Given their tenuous position, 3.0 games out of the third wild card, the Cubs can’t afford to be without Bellinger for long.
- Oddsmakers are skeptical, listing the Cubs +450 to make the playoffs. Their World Series odds have plummeted from +4100 to +13000 since Opening Day.
Redbirds Still in Playoff Mix
The Cardinals (48-44) are clinging to the second wild card after dropping back-to-back games to Kansas City. They are 6-4 in their last 10 games, averaging 5.2 runs over that span.
St. Louis’ biggest bats continue to struggle — perennial All-Stars Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado both have an OPS under .700 — but it’s gotten a lift from lesser-known contributors such as Alec Burleson (15 HR, .790 OPS) and Masyn Winn (30 RBI, .739 OPS).
Oddsmakers still aren’t entirely sold on the Cardinals, whose MLB playoff odds currently sit at +115. It certainly doesn’t help that they have a minus-38 run differential, third-worst in the NL ahead of only Colorado (-167) and Miami (-146). Their odds of winning the division have dropped to +500.
- The Cardinals, who trail the first-place Brewers by 5.0 games, rank 23rd in the majors in runs (378) and 25th in homers (90).
They have been difficult to peg from a betting perspective, covering the run line at a rate of exactly 50%. That includes 23-21 at home.
One of the main keys to winning the Central: Paul Goldschmidt
pic.twitter.com/xHprAHS9Fs— Gateway Grinders (@gatewaygrinders) July 8, 2024
Series Probables
Game 1
- Friday, 8:15 p.m. ET
- Kyle Hendricks vs Sonny Gray
Hendricks exited last Saturday’s start against the Angels after two innings (43 pitches) due to lower back tightness. The veteran right-hander, who is 1-7 with a 7.53 ERA, is expected to be good to go despite the MLB injury.
- The Cardinals counter with Gray, who is 9-5 with a 3.30 ERA. Gray last faced the Cubs on May 26, throwing five shutout innings in a 4-3 win.
That’s important to remember before making your Cubs vs Cardinals MLB predictions.
Games 2 and 3
- Saturday, 2:15 p.m. ET/8:15 p.m. ET
- Hayden Wesneski vs Lance Lynn
- TBA vs Kyle Gibson
The Cubs will open the day-night doubleheader with Wesneski, who has a 3.67 ERA in 23 appearances (six starts). Wesneski shifted to the rotation after opening the season in the bullpen, and in two starts this month, he’s allowed five runs in 11.1 innings.
- He faces Lynn, who is 4-4 with a 4.48 ERA. Lynn was hammered last Saturday against Washington, allowing a season-high 11 runs (10 earned) on nine hits over 2.2 innings in a 14-6 loss.
Gibson, who is 7-3 with a 3.96 ERA, is penciled in to start the nightcap for St. Louis. He faced the Cubs on June 14, tossing seven shutout innings in a 3-0 victory.
Game 4
- Sunday, 2:15 p.m. ET
- Jameson Taillon vs Miles Mikolas
The Cubs conclude the first half with Taillon, who is 6-4 and ranks amongst the MLB stats league leaders with a 2.99 ERA. He’s already faced Mikolas twice this season, combining to allow five runs in 11.2 innings.
- The Cubs lost both games, 7-6 on May 25 and 2-1 on June 16.
Mikolas, who is 7-7 with a 4.88 ERA, gave up four runs over 12.1 innings in those appearances.
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