Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners Series Preview and Odds

Tigers Are In A Tailspain

Whatever slim playoff hopes the Detroit Tigers were hanging onto when they were just under .500 after the All-Star break has since evaporated.

They’ve lost six of their last seven games and will try to play spoiler to the Seattle Mariners this week in the Pacific Northwest. Seattle is coming off an impressive series win over the Philadelphia Phillies, which gave the Mariners a slim one-game lead in the AL West over the Houston Astros.

If you’re making Tigers vs Mariners picks, Seattle is a -205 moneyline favorite and +105 runline favorite in Tuesday’s opener. The total is 7.5 runs.

Detroit lost three of four over the weekend against the Kansas City Royals and is starting to look like a team that is just playing out the string. The Tigers traded Jack Flaherty and Mark Canha at the deadline, and while they chose to hang onto ace Tarik Skubal, Detroit is very much in evaluation mode as opposed to win-now mode.

It doesn’t help that, as reflected in the MLB wagerline, the Tigers’ offense has nosedived lately, with two or fewer runs in five of their last seven games.

Seattle is locked in a very tight divisional battle with Houston so every game is critical for the Mariners. They made a ton of moves at the deadline and have a lot riding on this season. Plus, winning the division is their most likely route to the postseason because they would be four games off the pace in the Wild Card were they not ahead of the Astros in the AL West. Crunchtime is now for Seattle.

Tigers logo Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners Mariners logo

📊Records: Detroit Tigers (53-60), Seattle Mariners (59-54)
Day/Time: Tuesday, August 6th, 9:40 PM ET
📍Location: T-Mobile Park; Seattle, Washington
📺Streaming: MLB.TV

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Tigers’ Offense Is Anemic

Not much was expected of Detroit’s lineup entering the season but even the most pessimistic Tigers observers have to be a bit disappointed in how little A.J.

Hinch’s team has hit. Any Tigers vs Mariners picks need to factor in how Detroit is a bottom-ten team in baseball across all offensive categories. They’re 20th in runs, 27th in average, 28th in on-base percentage and 26th in OPS. They’ve also stolen the fourth-fewest bases in the Majors.

To sum things up, the Tigers don’t do much on offense. Former 1st round pick Spencer Torkelson was so bad he got demoted to Triple-A, top hitter Kerry Carpenter has been on the injured list for over two months with a back injury, All-Star Riley Greene is out with a strained hamstring, and Javier Báez continues to play despite being one of, if not the, worst position players in baseball.

No healthy Detroit regular has an OPS+ of 100 or better besides Justyn Henry-Malloy, who has only been in the Majors for a couple of months.

So, if you want free MLB picks for today, it would be wise to, at the minimum, take the Tigers’ team under in Tuesday’s opener game because it will not be easy for them to muster up much scoring against Seattle’s Luis Castillo who is having another trademark solid season.

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Seattle’s Rotation Is Awesome

The Mariners have had their own offensive issues, to be sure, but scoring the fourth-fewest runs in baseball with the third-worst OPS is a bit more palatable when your starting rotation is first in ERA, WHIP, walk rate and hit rate. The numbers are incredibly impressive and Seattle’s rotation’s dominance should factor into any Tigers vs Mariners picks.

Seattle will have Castillo start the opener to be followed by George Kirby and Bryan Woo who are actually the Mariners’ ERA leaders. The rotation is deep, and while it doesn’t strike out an eye-popping number of batters, all of the Mariners’ starters are very good at preventing baserunners and throwing strikes. Teams really have to earn their runs against Seattle, which, of course, doesn’t bode well for a Detroit squad that has enough trouble getting on base.

The issue with having the Mariners as one of the MLB best bets is that Seattle doesn’t give its starters much run support and that the bullpen — who decent on the whole — isn’t nearly as dominant as the rotation. Still, with the Tigers playing out the string with one of the worst lineup in MLB, this is a great matchup for the Mariners.

Go With Seattle On The Runline

The value for the Mariners to cover the -1.5 runline (+105) on Tuesday isn’t anything special, but getting them at that number with Castillo pitching against rookie Keider Montero, who has a 6.18 ERA in eight appearances (seven starts), is incredibly enticing.

Seattle’s bats have perked up a little since the Mariners picked up Randy Arozarena and Justin Turner at the deadline and they should be able to scratch some offense together with Montero on the mound.

Still, the under 7.5 runs (-115) is probably a good bet. That’s a low total but Castillo is a great pitcher and neither offense is particularly electric.


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