Dodgers Hope to Salvage Split Against Red-Hot Padres

The San Diego Padres’ mastery of the Los Angeles Dodgers continues. San Diego is now 6-3 against its National League West rival following Tuesday’s 7-6, 10-inning win at Petco Park. Donovan Solano’s pinch-hit, walk-off single off Alex Vesia capped a comeback from 5-0 down.

• The Dodgers will look to salvage a split of the two-game series on Wednesday (8:40 p.m. ET) when lefty Clayton Kershaw opposes right-hander Dylan Cease. San Diego is -1.5 (+164) on the run line and -135 on the moneyline, with Los Angeles +1.5 (-198) and +114 to win outright. The projected total is 7. Oddsmakers are giving a slight edge to the Over at -115.

What can bettors expect? Read on as we break down both teams and give our Dodgers vs Padres expert pick.

Dodgers vs Padres Betting Trends

The Los Angeles Dodgers are 53-55 against the run line, including 28-26 away from home. Four of the Dodgers’ last six games have gone Over the total, improving their record against the Over/Under to 55-52-1. That includes just 24-30 on the road.

The San Diego Padres, meanwhile, are 57-52 against the run line. San Diego has fared markedly better in this regard on the road compared to at home, where its cover rate is only 38.1%. As for the Over/Under, San Diego is 58-50-1.

It’s important to remember these betting trends when analyzing our Dodgers vs Padres expert pick.

Pitching Probables

Clayton Kershaw (0-0, 4.50 ERA) vs Dylan Cease (10-8, 3.50 ERA)

Kershaw returned from the injured list last Thursday and pitched four innings, allowing two runs on six hits in a 6-4 win over San Francisco. The three-time Cy Young winner — who hadn’t pitched Oct. 7, 2023, because of shoulder surgery — also struck out six. He threw 72 pitches, with his fastball topping out at 91.8 mph.

The Dodgers are likely to take it slow with Kershaw, wanting to preserve one of their most prized assets for the stretch run.

San Diego counters with Cease, who no-hit Washington last Thursday in a 3-0 victory. Cease extended his scoreless streak to 22 innings, during which he’s given up only two hits. He’s struck out 43 batters over 32.2 innings this month and has a 2.48 ERA. Per MLB stats, opponents are hitting only .191 against him overall.

Dodgers Still Not Whole

The Dodgers vs Padres expert pick shows the Dodgers’ lead atop the National League West is down to 5.5 games after Tuesday’s loss. They’ve dropped three of four to start their nine-game road trip through Houston, San Diego and Oakland and are 7-4 since the All-Star break. Despite their recent issues, the Dodgers (63-45) remain the team to beat with +330 World Series odds. Philadelphia, owners of the NL’s best record (65-42), own the second-best odds at +500.

It sure doesn’t help that Los Angeles remains without two of its biggest bats in first baseman Freddie Freeman and shortstop Mookie Betts. Freeman — who has 16 homers, 67 RBI and an .888 OPS — was placed on the family emergency list on Saturday to be with his 3-year-old son Max, who’s hospitalized with an illness.

Players can miss up to seven days on the family emergency list, though the Dodgers have no plans to rush him back. As it is, manager Dave Roberts has already said he doesn’t expect the eight-time All-Star to return before the end of the Padres series. Cavan Biggio started in Freeman’s place on Tuesday and homered for the second time in three games.

Los Angeles also continues to wait on Betts, who hasn’t played since May 16 because of a fractured left hand. While it’s possible that Betts — who is batting .304 with 10 homers and an .892 OPS — rejoins the club in early August, there is still no timetable for his return. At the very least, he’s begun swinging a bat and fielding grounders. Betts could soon be cleared to take batting practice.

The Dodgers rank fourth in the majors in runs (4.9 per game) and continue to lead the NL in homers, though they will ultimately need both Freeman and Betts to chase another World Series.

Playoff Push Grows for Padres

The Padres (58-51) continue their surge in the standings, having won eight of their last nine to move a season-high seven games above .500. In addition to pulling within 5.5 games of the first-place Dodgers, the Padres also now have a half-game lead on the third and final wild card. As such, their MLB playoff odds have improved to -160.

San Diego is 8-2 in the second half, matching its record against the run line. It has covered in only 38.1% of its home games, though recent trends are encouraging.

The Padres are averaging 5.5 runs since the All-Star break to improve their run differential to plus-35. They’ve gone Over the total in five of their last six.

Pitching was a big focus of their trade deadline plans, as the Padres added relievers Jason Adam (Rays) and Tanner Scott (Marlins). Both required significant prospect capital, though San Diego didn’t blink at the opportunity to bolster its staff. Left-handed reliever Wandy Peralta (shoulder) and starters Yu Darvish (personal) and Joe Musgrove (triceps) all remain on the IL, with no clear timetable as to when they might return.

The Padres are seventh in the majors with 45 quality starts but just 18th in ERA (4.07).

For 2024 MLB best bets, odds analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine

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