Dodgers Look to Stay Hot Against First-Place Astros

What should bettors expect? Read on as we break down both teams and assess the odds in our Dodgers vs Astros series preview.

The Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers, two of Major League Baseball’s top contenders, begin a three-game series Friday (8:10 p.m. ET) at Minute Maid Park. Right-hander Gavin Stone opposes lefty Framber Valdez in the opener, which can be seen on Apple TV+.

• Houston is -1.5 (+164) on the run line and -125 on the moneyline for the opener, with Los Angeles +1.5 (-198) and +105. The projected total is 8.5 with a slight edge to the Under at -115.

Dodgers vs Astros Betting Trends

The Los Angeles Dodgers are 51-53 against the run line, including 26-24 away from home. Los Angeles has fared slightly better for Over/Under bettors, going 53-50-1.

The Houston Astros, meanwhile, are 55-47 against the run line, covering at the fifth-highest rate (53.9%) in the majors. That includes 26-23 at home. As for the Over/Under, Houston is just 41-57-4.

That’s important to remember when analyzing the odds in our Dodgers vs Astros series preview.

Black and (Dodger) Blue

So far, so good for the Dodgers, who took three of four from rival San Francisco to improve to 6-1 since the All-Star break. Los Angeles (62-42) now has a 7.5-game lead on San Diego atop the National League West and trails only Philadelphia (64-38) for the league’s best record.

• The Dodgers remain favored to win not only the NL (+165) but also the World Series (+330), which they haven’t done since the COVID-shortened 2020 season.

Los Angeles is still far from complete, as its rotation has been battered by injuries. Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw both returned from the injured list against San Francisco, though the Dodgers continue to wait on Walker Buehler (right hip inflammation) and Bobby Miller (right shoulder inflammation).

Of the two, Miller, who threw five scoreless innings against Triple-A Round Rock on Saturday, appears to be a bit further along.

The Dodgers are much better off offensively. They’re averaging an MLB-best 4.9 runs per game and lead the NL in home runs, with 141. They also have the NL’s second-best run differential (plus-96).

• Designated hitter Shohei Ohtani has had a big hand in that, hitting .311 with 31 homers, 74 RBI and a 1.033 OPS. His odds of winning NL MVP have climbed from +200 to -400 over the last month.

Soaring into First

Houston has overcome a slow start (10-19 through April 30) to take over first place in the American League West, 53-49. Its 1.0 game ahead of Seattle and 2.5 in front of defending World Series champion Texas. The Astros have a significantly better run differential than both clubs (plus-49 compared to plus-9), indicating their success may be more sustainable in the 2024 MLB standings.

• Oddsmakers are bullish on the Astros, giving them a -145 edge to win the division. The Astros also have the fourth-best odds (+650) to grab the AL pennant.

Houston went 3-3 on its six-game road trip against Seattle and Oakland to begin the second half. It scored four or fewer runs in its first five games after the break before exploding for 11 hits in an 8-1 win over Oakland on Wednesday.

That allowed the Astros to cover the Over for the third time in four games, though they’re still just 41-57-4 against the Over/Under. Only two clubs have gone Under the total at a higher rate than Houston (58.2%).

Houston remains without outfielder Kyle Tucker (19 HR, 40 RBI, .979 OPS), who has been on the IL since June 3 with a right shin contusion.

Dodgers vs Astros series preview Series Probables

Stone, one of the few reliable arms in Los Angeles’ injury-plagued rotation, has nine wins and a 3.19 ERA. He’s had a tough July (6.39 ERA) but allowed only one run over five innings in his most recent appearance, a 4-1 win over Boston last Friday.

MLB props project Stone for 4.5 strikeouts.

Valdez, meanwhile, is 8-5 with a 3.63 ERA. The Astros have won his last five starts, including Saturday’s 4-2 victory over Seattle in which the left-hander gave up two runs in 5.2 innings.

Wrobleski had the best outing of his rookie season in his last start when he threw 4.1 shutout innings and struck out five on Saturday in a 7-6, 11-inning win over Boston. The left-hander threw 83 pitches, one shy of his season high.

He faces Blanco, who has nine wins and ranks top 10 in baseball in both ERA (2.75, ninth) and WHIP (0.99, tied for ninth). Blanco lost his last two starts, though his ERA is still a respectable 3.70 in July.

Keep that in mind when analyzing the odds in our Dodgers vs Astros series preview.

Arrighetti has been more good than bad lately, allowing three or fewer runs in four of his last six starts dating to June 20. The rookie right-hander has a 6.13 ERA this month, though it’s inflated by one particularly poor outing against Toronto in which he gave up seven runs (six earned) over four innings.

Los Angeles has yet to name a starter opposite him. Be sure to monitor that, as it affect the odds.

For MLB score predictions, betting analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine

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