Dodgers vs Reds Preview: Gonsolin Big Favorite in Series Opener

Dodgers Bring the Big Guns, Does it Matter?

The Dodgers vs Reds preview shows L.A.’s Tony Gonsolin a solid -188 favorite over Cincinnati’s Luke Weaver. The total on the game is 10-over (-115). Los Angeles is -125 on the run line.

The Dodgers enter the game after losing the last two games of a three-game series to the Yankees. One reason the Dodgers are tied for first place in the NL West is their ability to bounce back. The Dodgers are 17-7 after a loss this season.

The Reds defeated the Brewers 2-0 on Monday and have gone 12-14 after a victory. Cincinnati is 22-29 when playing the day after their previous game. The MLB schedule gave the Dodgers an extra day to rest, but the team did have to travel across the country.

Dodgers logo Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers are 4-3 when Gonsolin starts, but all three losses have come on the road, where L.A. is 1-3 in Gonsolin’s starts. The Los Angeles bullpen has been pretty bad on the road this season. The Dodgers’ relievers sport a 5.73 ERA on the road this season. Surprisingly, the Dodgers are a perfect 8 for 8 in save opportunities away from home this year. But the once proud Dodger pitching staff is No. 20 in team ERA at 4.45.

Los Angeles has been a better team at home this season. The Dodgers are 20-10 in front of the home fans and just 15-15 on the road. L.A. is just 11-10 as a road favorite this season. The Dodgers are laying an average of -145, so they’ve lost their backers money in those games.

While the arms haven’t been up to expectations, the Dodger bats have carried the team. The Dodgers aren’t hitting much for average, hitting just .242, but L.A. is No. 4 in slugging percentage. Los Angeles is second in home runs and No. 3 in runs scored.

The Dodgers vs Reds preview notes the Dodgers are at their best facing right-handed pitchers. L.A. is 26-16 facing a RHP and is averaging 5.86 runs per game.

Reds logo Cincinnati Reds

The Reds have gone 3-5 in the eight games Luke Weaver has started. Cincinnati is scoring 3.88 runs and allowing 5.0 runs in those games. The Reds have gone 2-2 in his home starts.

The Reds are No. 27 in team ERA with a 4.96 mark. Cincinnati closers have converted 18 of 26 save opportunities. The bullpen has been solid at home, pitching to a 2.82 ERA. But it’s getting the ball in their hands that has been a problem for the Reds.

Cincinnati’s offense hasn’t been bad, with the Reds sitting No. 12 in team batting at .252 and No. 13 in runs scored. The Reds don’t have a lot of power, ranking No. 27 in home runs. The Reds will have to string together hits to get on the scoreboard. That’s not easy against Gonsolin, who keeps the opposition off the bases pretty well.

Handicapping the Game

The MLB odds on this one are a bit high. Gonsolin is obviously a much better starting pitcher. But he doesn’t give you many innings very often. His longest start of the year is just six innings. That means the Dodgers’ bullpen is going to get involved.

The Dodgers vs Reds preview has to mention the Dodgers are a terrible big favorite this season. Los Angeles is 5-8 when favored -175 or more. That’s practically unheard of. The Dodgers are 0-2 on the road in that situation, so L.A. is far from a sure thing in this spot.

The Reds are 7-8 when getting +150 or more, which isn’t bad at all. Anything above a 40% winning percentage will show a profit and the Reds are winning at a 46.7% clip. It’s worth noting the Reds are 10-5 in totals in those games. Cincinnati is scoring some runs, but also allowing plenty.

You have to like the Dodgers to be in the lead early. Gonsolin vs Weaver is a bit of a pitching mismatch. But the Reds relief pitchers have been better than those Los Angeles is throwing out there. The Dodgers’ poor record as a large favorite is also a cause for concern.

This could be one of those games where it’s best to go outside the box a little bit and look at the Dodgers for the first five innings. The line is reasonable at L.A. -.5 (-130) and you won’t have to worry about the Dodgers bullpen in the late innings of the game.
Follow us on Twitter


Can’t get enough? Here’s more!

Back to top button

pointspreads

WHO WILL WIN?

March Madness
gonzaga
Gonzaga
Purdue
Purdue
Friday, March 29, 2024
50%
50%
March Madness
creighton
Creighton
Tennessee
Tennessee
Friday, March 29, 2024
50%
50%
Serie A
napoli
Napoli
Atalanta
Atalanta
Saturday, March 30, 2024
50%
50%
Bundesliga
bayern munich
Bayern Munich
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund
Saturday, March 30, 2024
50%
50%
Submit your vote and view the results
Hey Again

vote all you can

pointspreads

PS-email

PS-email

pointspreads

pointspreads-email

Bet like a PRO!

pointspreads-email

Subscribe now and get Weekly Expert Free Picks