Fade The Miami Marlins This Week!

The Detroit Tigers are 20-20 on the season. But they might finally escape .500 as they’ll begin the week with a three-game series against the Miami Marlins. That’ll help the Detroit Tigers standings in the AL Central.

The Marlins have only won 11 games on the season and will throw three pitchers in this series with an ERA of at least 4.54.

The MLB odds for Game 1 of the series have already been released. With Matt Manning on the bump for the Tigers, Detroit is currently -160 on the moneyline. Meanwhile, the total is currently at 8.5, with the under juiced to -120, with Sixto Sanchez on the bump for the Marlins.

We’ve got three games to go, so here’s our Marlins vs Tigers series preview for the three-game interleague series.

Should Bruce Sherman Sell The Team?

Although injuries have decimated the Marlins, many Miami fans were unhappy with the team’s decision to trade away Luis Arraez to the Padres.

Arraez won the NL Batting Title last season but was traded to the Padres in early May after the Marlins started the season with minimal wins in April.

Miami made the playoffs last season. So, while the Marlins’ situation looks bad right now, they aren’t in terrible hands compared to a team like Oakland.

Once the pitching staff gets healthy and the Marlins add a bat or two that can hit with consistency, the Marlins will be a difficult out each night. Bruce Sherman likely won’t sell the team and probably shouldn’t in the first place.

Spencer Torkelson Finally Hit a Homer

The Tigers have been waiting for Spencer Torkelson to wake up. The young right-handed power bat has struggled at the plate this season. But he finally hit his first home run of the season for Detroit in the ninth inning with two outs.

He was up in a non-pressure situation, with Detroit already getting smacked by the Astros. Maybe that “garbage time” home run will get Torkelson back on track and give him confidence for the rest of the season.

The MLB schedule today favors Torkelson and the rest of the Detroit bats as they take on the NL’s worst, Miami Marlins.

Marlins vs Tigers Series Preview and Odds For Game 1:

RL: Tigers -1.5 (+130) ML: Tigers -160, O/U 8.5 +100/-120

Sixto Sanchez will head to the mound for the Marlins with his 7.50 ERA on the season. He’s only faced 85 batters this season. However, those 85 batters have hit a .361 wOBA with nearly 25% of line drives.

As a right-handed pitcher, Sanchez has struggled way more against lefties, allowing his first 34 lefties to hit a .172 ISO and wOBA of .448. He’s also struck out just 12.9% of batters this season.

While the bottom portion of the Detroit lineup hasn’t produced, the top of the lineup has done enough to score runs against righties. Detroit’s top-of-the-lineup has five guys with a wOBA of at least .316 and four batters with at least a .194 ISO against righties.

The Tigers strike out at a high rate, but that’s not an issue against Sanchez.

Meanwhile, Sanchez will take on Matt Manning of the Tigers. Manning has struck out more batters, with a 23.9% rate. But he’s also allowed an ISO of .250 and wOBA of .325 to his first 41 lefties this season.

The projected order for the Marlins has hit a .164 ISO and wOBA of .308 against righties this season. The lineup has limited strikeouts to under 21% but added only 6.5% of walks against righties. Bryan De La Cruz, Jake Burger, and Otto Lopez are the three bats that can do damage. The rest have been quiet analytically against righties this season.

We’ll likely get some offense out of the lefties in both lineups. Consider the Over 8.5 at +100.

The Marlins will send out their first of two lefties in this series in Game 2. It’ll be Ryan Weathers, who probably gives the Marlins their best chance at winning games this season.

Weathers has allowed a .213 ISO and wOBA of .366 to righties. He’s also struck out only 15.8% of righties this season. But beyond all that, he’s still earned 45.7% of grounders and has held teams to 21.7% of fly balls.

Meanwhile, the Tigers only have four batters that look good against lefties. The bottom portion of the order against lefties has a low wOBA and low ISO with a limited amount of walks. For example, Matt Vierling and Colt Keith don’t even have a single walk against lefties this season.

On the other hand, Reese Olson will get the call for the Tigers. The right-hander has been really good. Except, he’s 0-4 with a 2.52 ERA this season. The Tigers don’t score when he’s on the mound. Either way, Olson has limited teams to a .043 ISO and wOBA of .249 with 53.6% ground balls.

With Olson and Weathers on the mound, the Under will likely be the play in this one. Check the MLB scoreboard for this matchup!

In the finale, the Marlins will ride with Trevor Rogers. The lefty has a 6.57 ERA and an 0-6 record to begin the year. He’s been bad against lefties and righties but has at least struck out 27.9% of lefties. The bad news is that he’s struck out only 14.1% of righties, and as a lefty, he typically faces more righties.

In addition, Rogers has allowed a .217 ISO and wOBA of .394 to his first 178 batters this year. That won’t get the job done at this level. He’s one of the many reasons the Miami Marlins standings are in last place in the NL.

Finally, we’ll have Casey Mize in for the Tigers in the finale of the series. Mize has a 3.58 ERA and has also looked really good for Detroit. The right-hander has held teams to a 092 ISO and wOBA of .297 after facing 162 batters this season.

Mize shouldn’t have problems getting through the Miami offense. On the other hand, Rogers has had trouble getting through all MLB lineups this season. Consider Detroit to close out Game 3 in our Marlins vs Tigers series preview.

Marlins vs Tigers Odds

For MLB picks, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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