Fish Frying: Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks Preview and Odds

It took almost a month and a half but the Miami Marlins finally look (somewhat) like the team that made the playoffs a season ago but has been one of the worst teams in baseball this season. Skip Schumaker’s team has won six of its last eight games as it heads west for an important road trip. They’ll start off with the Arizona Diamondbacks who continue their up-and-down play after being in the World Series only seven months ago. The Marlins vs D’Backs MLB Odds like the Diamondbacks in Friday’s series opener as -185 moneyline favorites. The total is eight runs.

The Marlins are coming off an impressive series win over the Milwaukee Brewers, largely thanks to two really good starts from Ryan Weathers and Jesús Luzardo.

Miami’s bats have also woken up a bit after really struggling for pretty much the entire season. But, the Marlins’ strength is its young starting pitching so when guys like Weathers, Luzardo, Trevor Rogers and Braxton Garrett are showing, Miami can be a difficult team to play against.

Arizona is also coming off a big week as the Diamondbacks took two of three from the Los Angeles Dodgers on the road, including a 6-0 win on Wednesday night. The Diamondbacks continue to try and creep back toward .500 despite their pitching staff just not performing nearly as well as they expected it to before the season.

Injuries to Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodríguez haven’t helped and everyone other than ace Zach Gallen and Brandon Pfaadt have been underwhelming. Still, they’re one of the better MLB picks today considering who their opponent is.

Arizona’s Lineup Is Heating Up

One of the more confounding aspects of this season for the Diamondbacks has been the severe underperformance from several key pieces of their lineup, namely Corbin Carroll and Eugenio Suárez.

Ketel Marte, Christian Walker, Joc Pederson and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. have all stepped up to produce runs but Carroll and Suárez were expected to be offensive studs for Arizona. It hasn’t turned out that way but as the Marlins vs D’Backs MLB Odds indicate, they may be coming around.

The start of the season has been a complete disaster for Carroll after his breakout Rookie of the Year campaign in 2023. He’s batting under .200 with a sub-.600 OPS and just two home runs. However, he is on a five-game hitting streak with a couple of triples in that span, so he could be starting to break out of that funk.

The lack of home runs is concerning, though, but if/when Carroll returns to form, it would make the Arizona lineup one of the scarier MLB lineups to face.

Back-End of Marlins’ Rotation Is Iffy

For as good as the Marlins’ rotation can be at full strength, it is at far from full strength right now and some of the other intriguing options they have filling in for the injured guys aren’t performing up to par according to the MLB injuries report.

Garrett, Sixto Sánchez and Weathers are set to pitch for Miami this weekend and the Marlins vs D’Backs MLB Odds don’t love the Marlins’ chances of holding down Arizona with those guys.

Garrett and Sánchez — who is coming back from two shoulder surgeries and along absence from the Majors — have been bad this season and Sánchez had such a rough first inning in his last start against the Mets that his manager publicly called him out at a press conference.

Weathers has actually pitched great in his first full season with Miami and is coming off back-to-back gems against the Tigers and Brewers.

However, if the Miami Marlins baseball schedule tells us anything, it’s that Miami’s recent stretch of strong pitching could end this weekend. The Diamondbacks are a much better offensive team than the Mets and, at their best, should be better than the Brewers as well. Arizona should hit Garrett and Sánchez hard.

Diamondbacks Should Cruise

It also helps Arizona’s cause that the D’Backs will be throwing their top three guys — Gallen, Pfaadt and Jordan Montgomery — in this series and have a decided pitching advantage in all three matchups.

Gallen is one of the best pitchers in baseball, Pfaadt has great peripheral numbers and a WHIP close to 1.00 and Montgomery was a major reason why the Rangers won the World Series against the Diamondbacks in the fall.

When you put all of that together, it’s understandable why Arizona is such a big -185 moneyline favorite against Miami even with the Marlins’ better play as of late.

The Diamondbacks are just the better team and you could even consider taking them -1.5 runs on the runline for plus-value. You could also throw the Diamondbacks straight-up into a parlay to maximize the value you get from the pick.

Also, under eight runs (at +100) is a smart play with Gallen on the mound and considering that the Marlins’ offense (generally) isn’t very good despite how the last week or so has gone. Getting even-money for a relatively high under is a smart play.

Mood this morning. 😁 pic.twitter.com/BwSTjnApU5

— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) May 23, 2024

For Diamondbacks vs Marlins predictions, betting analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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