Guardians, Royals Look Like Real Deal in AL Central

Twins (+120) Still Favorites in AL Central Gambling Report

The Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Guardians unsurprisingly look like the MLB teams to beat in the American League Central.

But the division is shaping up to be deeper than many believed, as the oft-rebuilding Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals both sit above .500 through the first quarter of the Major League Baseball season.

What should bettors make of this? We give our impressions on the division race in our AL Central gambling report.

White Sox logo Chicago White Sox

  • Grade: F

Expectations were extremely low for Chicago. Only Oakland (56.5) and Colorado (60.5) were projected to win fewer games than Pedro Grifol’s club.

Despite that, it’s hard to encapsulate the level of futility the White Sox have seen.

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Chicago is an American League-worst 12-29 and has been outscored by 90 runs. That matches Miami for the poorest run differential in MLB, per MLB scores.

With Luis Robert hurt (hip flexor) and their best prospects still in the minors, there’s not much to look forward to this summer. The White Sox are predictably awful.

Guardians logo Cleveland Guardians

  • Grade: A+

Stephen Vogt has pushed all the right buttons in his first season as Cleveland’s manager. The Guardians are a division-best 26-16 to match their record against the spread, and they have the second-highest run differential (plus-49) in the AL.

As such, their MLB odds of winning the Central have improved from +350 to +185.

Cleveland’s lineup still has some holes, but its pitching has remained surprisingly among the MLB stat leaders despite Shane Bieber needing season-ending Tommy John surgery.

The Guardians are on pace to blow past their projected win total of 78.5 in our AL Central gambling report. However, time will tell if they are a legitimate World Series contender.

Tigers logo Detroit Tigers

  • Grade: B-

On the bright side, Tarik Skubal looks like the real deal. The 27-year-old left-hander is 5-0 with a 2.02 ERA, 0.86 WHIP through his first eight starts. He also has 60 strikeouts in 49 innings. In the process, he has surpassed Baltimore’s Corbin Burnes as a +250 favorite to win AL Cy Young.

As good as he’s been, however, the jury remains out on Detroit. The Tigers are 21-20, which is about where most expected them to be (projected 80.5 wins). That includes 3-7 over their last 10 games.

More will be needed from former No. 1 overall pick Spencer Torkelson (2 HR, .644 OPS) for the Detroit Tigers to stay above .500 and contend for a wild card.

Royals logo Kansas City Royals

  • Grade: A-

Kansas City has shown considerable progress on the heels of 106 losses, starting 25-18. Its 15 home wins are tied for the Major League lead.

Shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. (.304 AVG, 5 HR, 21 RBI, 15 SB) is one of baseball’s best young stars, and catcher Salvador Perez (.322 AVG, 8 HR, 33 RBI) is enjoying a renaissance at age 34.

Projected for 73.5 wins, the Kansas City Royals were treated with kid’s gloves this offseason. But it seems like they’re further along in their rebuild than most expected. They have covered the run line in 58.1% of their games, the third highest rate in baseball.

They are on pace to finish with a winning record for the first time since their 2015 World Series season.

Twins logo Minnesota Twins

  • Grade: B

Minnesota has heated up after a dismal start, going 17-3 over its last 20 games. At 24-16, the Twins trail the first-place Guardians by just one game in the AL Central standings.

While the Twins’ division odds have dropped from -115, they remain the favorites at +120.

Despite losing Sonny Gray in free agency, starting pitching has remained a strength. Minnesota’s 18 quality starts are tied for eighth most in MLB, thanks in large part to Pablo Lopez (3.89 ERA, 11.3 K/9) and Joe Ryan (3.21 ERA, 10.0 K/9).

Outlasting Cleveland will be tough, but this looks like a wild card team at worst. The Twins are plenty capable of surpassing 86.5 wins to beat expectations in our AL Central gambling report.

For MLB pitching matchups, betting analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.


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