Head-to-Head MLB Home Run Leader Odds: Top Players to Watch and Best Bets
When In Doubt, Take Trout

The MLB regular season is finally upon us. All 30 teams will be in action on Thursday’s Opening Day, a welcome change to MLB’s usual staggered schedule to kick off the new season. Optimism is in the air at the beginning of every new campaign, even for teams that aren’t expected to be particularly good. That’s the fun of baseball, though, and that’s the fun of betting on baseball because it feels like anything can happen. This is especially true when looking at the MLB home run leader odds.
While Aaron Judge ran away from the rest of the competition with his record-setting 2022 campaign, look for things to be much more competitive in 2023. Between Judge, a healthy Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout, Pete Alonso, Kyle Schwarber, Paul Goldschmidt and others, there are a lot of viable sluggers who should be in the mix for the home run crown.
But, if season-long leaderboard races aren’t for you, MLB preseason odds also feature some head-to-head home run prop bets that not only provide some interesting value but add a little more excitement. By taking one player to hit more long balls than another, you get to simultaneously have action on one guy while being incentivized to root against another. For sure, there aren’t a ton of different head-to-head matchups offered on the board but there are some particularly interesting ones available that are worth diving into:
Breaking Down the Top Head-to-Head Matchups
Aaron Judge (-140) vs Mike Trout (+115)
As you’d expect, Judge is the headliner of a lot of these bets. That’s understandable the season after you hit 62 home runs and set the single-season AL home run record. With that said, though, it’s going to be close to impossible for Judge to match his 2022 output in 2023. He was able to stay very healthy for the second-straight season and it felt like every time he put the ball in the air it went out of the park.
It wouldn’t be smart to doubt the MLB player statistics he’ll put up, particularly in the bandbox that is Yankee Stadium, yet getting Mike Trout at plus-value to eclipse Judge’s home run total is a worthwhile bet. Health is always the big question for Trout but he managed to hit 40 bombs in 2022 despite playing in just 119 games. If he can play 130+ games — especially with an improved Angels lineup around him — he could be looking at over 45 home runs which should be enough to challenge Judge.
Aaron Judge (-140) vs Pete Alonso (+115)
Pete Alonso is still trying to fully recaptured his magical rookie season in 2019 when he drilled 53 long balls to set the MLB rookie record. With that said, though, his 40 home runs last year somehow flew under the radar and he continues to be one of the best pure power hitters in baseball. It’s interesting that his MLB home run leader odds of beating Judge are the same as Trout’s considering that Pete has been more durable and has more lineup protection than Trout.
What Pete has going for him against Judge is that he doesn’t get walked (or pitched around) nearly as much. Also, Citi Field brought in its outfield fences a couple of feet over the offseason which should boost Pete’s chances as well.
Juan Soto (-120) vs George Springer (-105)
This is an interesting one. Soto’s career-high in home runs is the 34 he hit back in 2019 and he’s coming off a relatively low dinger year of 27 between the Washington Nationals and San Diego Padres. His power dipped appreciably after the trade as he only hit six home runs in 52 regular games as a Padre.
On the other side, Springer hit 25 home runs in 133 games for the Toronto Blue Jays. As always, he missed a decent chunk of time due to injury but seems to be healthy right now. When on the field, he’s a huge power threat yet he’s 33 years old now and hasn’t fully been himself in Toronto, in large due to injury.
Still, Springer might be the smart bet here because Soto draws so many walks and has to play half of his games in pitcher-friendly Petco Park. It helps that Springer’s home stadium, Rogers Centre, moved in the fences a bit this offseason.
Shohei Ohtani (-130) vs Kyle Tucker (-105)
The MLB home run leader odds favor Shohei in this matchup of AL West sluggers with beautiful lefty swings. Ohtani had a “down” power year in 2022 as he hit 34 home runs compared to 46 the year before while Tucker, for the second year in a row, mashed 30 longballs. In terms of past performance, Ohtani is the guy to take here because he has the better track record.
In terms of projection, though, Tucker is a good value play. He just turned 26 and is an extremely popular candidate to be one of those players that takes the lead from very good to bona fide star. He’s also aided by the short fences at Minute Maid Park.
Julio RodrÃguez (-115) vs Manny Machado (-110)
These guys shared the field at the World Baseball Classic as members of the Dominican Republic team but this matchup has them face off for home run supremacy. RodrÃguez exploded onto the scene in his rookie year, hitting 28 home runs despite missing 30 games due to injury. Machado is a bastion of consistency, hitting between 28 and 37 home runs in each of his non-COVID-shortened seasons since 2015.
RodrÃguez surely has the makings of a 35+ home run guy but it’s asking a lot of him to not expect any sophomore slump whatsoever as MLB pitchers figure him out a bit more. Machado is a safer pick.
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