July 24th Weekly MLB Home/Road Report

Hosts Were Profitable Last Week and Improve to +7.37 Units Overall

We were interrupted by the All-Star break but we’re back to smash bookmakers for the rest of the 2024 season, but we must continue to be disciplined with our money. We’ve also uncovered some trends that need to be in your handicapping arsenal. Enjoy our MLB July 24th weekly home/road report.

The public must analyze the current form and know how that will affect future results. In this report, we’ve combed through a week’s worth of results to give our readers the best chance to cash tickets.

Home Underdogs Thrive For Second Straight Week

We don’t see a run like this for long, so take advantage when the getting is good. Last week, home underdogs were 14-10 (+7.37 units).

That adds to a two-week total of 26-21, good for 11.06 units. This is a pocket of success that we’re not used to with underdog bettors knowing that their win/loss record will fall under .500 to grab the plus money throughout most seasons.

Home dogs are 238-297 (.445) for the season (-2.00 units) and have not turned a profit overall since 2020. Last week, home teams were profitable (+1.42) behind a record of 38-33. Road teams dropped 3.54 units.

  • The Los Angeles Dodgers led the way with a perfect 5-0 home mark (+3.96), followed by the Oakland Athletics at 4-1 (+3.11) and the Washington Nationals with a 3-1 mark (+2.05).

The most profitable road teams were the Milwaukee Brewers (3-1, +2.44), San Diego Padres (3-1, +1.98), and the Los Angeles Angels (3-2, +1.89).

  • Last week, road teams over .500 were 24-22 (+2.23) while chipping away at their season deficit of 13.20 units (317-409).

Meanwhile, home teams over .500 lost 4.16 units behind a 19-19 record, bringing their 2024 total to 379-362 (+2.18). Clubs under .500, but playing at home, stashed away 5.58 units of profit (19-14) but under .500 road teams were just 9-16 (-5.77).

Keep these trends handy when studying this week’s MLB scores and odds.

How Do Strikeouts Affect Cashing Tickets?

Yesterday, we wanted to know how power teams performed against the moneyline, today we’re going in the opposite direction as we evaluate how strikeouts or a lack of strikeouts hinder or support a bettor’s chance to cash tickets.

This season, the Seattle Mariners (1058), Oakland Athletics (978), Colorado Rockies (974), Boston Red Sox (968) and Pittsburgh Pirates (917) are the leaders in MLB team strikeouts.
Oakland Athletics

If we combine their 2024 performance, we would be in the red 6.65 units with a record of 236-273 (.464). That makes sense considering a team like the Mariners are erasing over three innings off their games averaging 10.27 strikeouts per game, which is why they’re 28th in baseball in run production (3.78 runs per game).

We expanded this study to the top 10 teams in K’s, giving us a clear picture of how important it is to keep strikeouts down.

In 2024, those teams are a combined 461-558 (.452) -56.42 units, but what about the flip side? The San Diego Padres (692), Kansas City Royals (697), Houston Astros (717), Toronto Blue Jays (736) Cleveland Guardians (737), and Washington Nationals (771) strikeout the least. Combined those teams are 313-294 (+3.77 units).

Not exactly the high mark we were looking for but keep in mind that the Blue Jays are -15.11 units this season, drastically reducing our profit.

It makes sense that striking out would have a larger impact on a team’s overall performance than clubs that put the ball in play because there still could be a negative outcome.

We conclude our July 24th weekly home/road report with another trend bettors may be glossing over.

Road National League Central Bettors Continue To Prosper

This season, only one division has turned a profit against the moneyline, the National League Central with 8.18 units (259-248).

The closest division is the American League East which is still in a 1.59-unit hole. Three of five teams in the NL Central have turned a profit led by the Milwaukee Brewers (+10.10 units).

    • Since June 26th, the NL Central is +10.26 units with the Pittsburgh Pirates winning 5.08 units of that profit.

Pittsburgh Pirates

The division’s strength comes from its performance on the road where they are 34-22 (+19.14) over the last four weeks. Again the Pittsburgh Pirates led the way with a 7-3 road mark (+5.00).

The American League West has struggled to cash tickets in 2024 with a 239-270 record resulting in 26.18 units lost.

Unlike the NL Central, AL West clubs are 103-149 (-25.45) on the road with the Houston Astros costing bettors 8.15 units away from home. We have plenty of the 2024 MLB schedule left, we wish you all the best with your MLB picks and parlays the rest of the way.

For MLB betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
Point Spreads


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