Major League Baseball Monday Recap: Division Leaders Producing Profit for Bettors

Rays keep Rolling Behind McClanahan, Shut Out Orioles 3-0

Our MLB Monday recap starts with the heaviest wagered-on game of the night between the Miami Marlins and the Arizona Diamondbacks. Over 48,000 tickets were written between our monitored sportsbooks. We’ll review where the money went on a match-up that had the Snakes as a -200 favorite. The MLB standings in 2023 continue to be interesting with three divisions separated by less than two games. We’ll dive into each division from a betting angle. Then we’ll end our MLB recap from yesterday with another betting angle you should apply to your Tuesday card.

Bettors Get Burned Going Against Tampa

Maybe the betting public hasn’t yet bought into the Tampa Bay Rays (29-7) when they’re on the road, but perhaps they will now after the Rays handed the Baltimore Orioles (22-13) a 3-0 loss. Over 55% of the total moneyline tickets written were on the Orioles and Kyle Gibson (4-2, 4.40).

Shane McClanahan ran his record to 7-0 with a brilliant six innings, allowing four hits and no earned runs. The left-hander lowered his era to 1.76. With the win, Tampa extended its lead in the American League East to 6 ½ games over the Orioles. As a favorite, Tampa is 28-6 (+867 units).

The two teams meet again today with the Rays opening as a -130 favorite, and once again, we see the majority of the early moneyline wagers coming in on Baltimore (65%). Another undefeated pitcher, Zach Eflin (4-0, 2.25era), gets the ball for Tampa against Grayson Rodriguez (1-0, 5.46).

Division Leaders Producing Profit for Bettors

Our MLB Monday recap shows that the players won 6 of the 11 games, and unlike most nights when the records are this even (6-5), it was the players who managed to take a small 95-unit moneyline profit home with them. The betting patterns were a little different than most nights with the public taking a shot with a couple of big dogs, Washington +190 and Detroit +165. Both games hit giving the players a massive boost despite taking a -180 loss with the Seattle Mariners (-180).

This season, teams getting more than 50.1% of the money (moneyline) are 308-213 (.591) but still are in the red by 793 units. Division leaders continue to sparkle overall. The Tampa Bay Rays (29-7, 864 units), Minnesota Twins (19-16, -249), Texas Rangers (21-13, +476), Pittsburgh Pirates (21-15, +725), Atlanta Braves (24-11, +460) and Los Angeles Dodgers (21-15, -72).

Combined they’re 138-74 (.651) +2901 units. To put a filter on those numbers, when each of those teams are favored by -150 or more they’re a combined 70-24 (.745) +1150 units. However, we have preached this many times, don’t bet games over -200 and preferably under -150.

Division winners favored by less than -150 are a less impressive 70-52 (.574) but own a profit of 1684 units, or 534 more units than a bettor would be betting the best teams when playing the role of large favorite. Let’s conclude our MLB Monday recap by looking the recent form betting angle.

Seasonal Numbers Tell When A Team Has Been, Not Where They’re Going

We talk a lot about numbers that reflect how a team has done over the course of the season, but in baseball more than any other sport, it’s about a team’s recent form that will guide your bankroll into the black. So what is ‘recent form’? That question has been debated for years, but we think for baseball that a 30-day window is the best long-form factor in determining how reliable a team is with your money.

Some think two weeks is a better barometer, but to us, a month is better because it factors in the smaller window while also keeping us from erratic betting patterns because we overreact to an injury. This way we can take into consideration a staff’s last five starts. Over the last 30 days, the Boston Red Sox are the top money makers (+834 units) behind a record of 17-11.

Boston is followed by the Detroit Tigers (14-12, +824 units), Washington Nationals (12-14, +690 units), Texas Rangers (17-9, +567 units), and the Tampa Bay Rays (21-7, +518 units). You can see that the oddsmakers are putting a premium on Rays games, limiting profits despite a .750 win percentage. It also tells us that the Nationals and the Tigers are live dogs.

The worst over the last 30 days is the Oakland Athletics (6-22, -1281), followed by the St. Louis Cardinals (9-19, -1234 units). Two teams to stay away from this week. That concludes our MLB Monday recap, we send you nothing but the best heading into a tricky 15-game Tuesday card that features eight games with lines under -150.
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