Major League Baseball Wednesday Recap

Massive Favorite Costs Bettors a Winning Night, Overall, Public Takes 8 of 15 Games

Our MLB Wednesday recap starts with another lesson that we’ve tried to give time and time again. Stay away from large favorites no matter how much of a sure thing you might think they are. Last night, the New York Mets (-220) cost the public an overall winning night after the Washington Nationals sent the Metropolitans to their fourth straight loss.

Instead of bettors coming away with a 277 unit profit, the books took a small profit despite losing the majority of the games on the card. This MLB season, favorites -210 or more are 42-22 (.656) but have lost 588 units. We continue our MLB Wednesday recap with a look at a couple of heavily bet games followed by a trend you can take into Thursday’s action.

Padres logo Padres Score Huge Win for Books

Of all the games on the Wednesday card, the San Diego Padres and the Chicago Cubs received the most attention with 51,767 wagers according to our monitored sportsbooks. It turned out to be a big win for the guys behind the counter with 54% of the moneyline cash and 65% of the overall tickets coming in on Chicago who were a -110 pick’em (consensus) against the Friars. The Cubs vs Padres game was a closely contested match, with both teams putting up a good fight, but ultimately the Cubs emerged victorious with a final score of 5-3.

With Michael Wacha on the mound, San Diego opened as a -108 favorite at one book but was moved to a -108 underdog by the time the first pitch was thrown by the Cubs’ Drew Smyly. The Padres offense has been struggling, but Fernando Tatis, Jr who is showing signs of breaking out of a slump after serving a suspension for violating the league PED policy, should give the Padres a major boost. San Diego is a -140 road favorite today in Chicago.

Angels logoBetting Public Not Scared Off -275 With Angels

With 44,837 wagers, the Oakland Athletics and Los Angeles Angels received the most attention after the Cubs and Angels. As we mentioned earlier, never get involved in a game where you’re being asked to lay this kind of number because at best it will take three more wins to climb out from underneath a loss. The Angels vs Athletics game was a test of wills between two talented teams, but in the end, it was the Angels who were able to outplay their opponents and secure a much-needed victory.

85% of the moneyline wagers were on the Angels and it paid off with Los Angeles spanking the Athletics, 11-3. 94% of the total tickets were on Los Angeles, but history will tell us this isn’t these bets are not worth the effort. This season, teams -270 or better are an incredible 20-4 (+281 units) but the devil is in the details. If we applied this filter to the last three seasons, a bettors record would be a sparkling 193-79 (.710). That should be good enough for thousands of dollars.

Unfortunately, that terrific record produced a loss of 1586 units since 2021. In 2019 and 2020, the public was able to finish in the black with a record of 120-35 (.774). That incredible record resulted in a profit of just 368 units. Having to win almost 78% of your games just to squeeze out a tiny profit seems like a clear message to stay away from mega favorites. Thursday’s MLB betting odds feature three games with favorites -200 or more. Take those games and throw them out immediately.

Bet The Best Team at The Right Price

To continue our theme of staying away from large favorites, we thought we’d revisit an old betting technique and give an update on how it’s going in 2023. The technique is simply to bet the teams with the top MLB record at a price under -200. So far we have the Tampa Bay Rays (20-5), Minnesota Twins (14-11), Texas Rangers (14-10), Pittsburgh Pirates (17-8), Atlanta Braves (17-8), and the Arizona Diamondbacks (14-12).

These teams have a combined record of 96-54 (.640). Let’s apply our -200 or less filter to see if that’s a profitable way to wager the rest of the week, and then let’s see what happens when a larger filter is applied. Maybe we’ll further the point of how important bankroll management is. Combined those teams are 76-51 (.598) when a favorite/underdog of less than -199, good for 1931 units of profit.

Now let’s add the -200 favorite or more filter, and we find that their combined record is 20-3 but good for a profit of just 442 units. Which way would you rather bet? That does it for our MLB Wednesday recap, we wish all of you a very profitable Thursday.

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