Mariners Seek to Regain Momentum Against Padres

Mariners vs Padres MLB Betting Odds Favor Seattle

Hoping to create more separation atop the American League West, the first-place Seattle Mariners open a two-game set Tuesday (9:40 p.m. ET) against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Logan Gilbert will oppose rookie Adam Mazur.

Seattle is -1.5 (+116) on the run line and -122 on the moneyline, with San Diego +1.5 (-142) and +120. Meanwhile, the projected total is 7.5 with a -122 edge to the Over. The Under is +100.

Who has the edge? Read on as we break down the odds in our Mariners vs Padres MLB betting preview.

Mariners logo Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres Padres logo

Day/Time:
Location: Petco Park

Mariners vs Padres Betting Trends

The Seattle Mariners have been the least profitable team for bettors, going an MLB-worst 39-53 against the run line. They have failed to cover in 11 of their last 13 games and are just 19-25 against the run line on the road. As for the Over/Under, Seattle is 38-49-5.

The San Diego Padres, meanwhile, have fared much better with a 48-46 mark against the run line. That’s despite covering in only 19 of their 49 home games. Their record against the Over/Under is 51-42-1, the fourth-highest cover rate (54.8%) in the majors.

That’s important to remember when assessing the Mariners vs Padres MLB betting odds.

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Leaders in the Clubhouse

Seattle has hit the skids, losing six of its last eight games to fall to 49-43. Despite those struggles, the Mariners enter the final week before the All-Star break sitting atop the American League West, 2.0 games ahead of the Houston Astros.

The Mariners went 3-6 during their recent homestand against the Twins, Orioles and Blue Jays, including a 5-4, 10-inning loss to Toronto on Sunday. They covered the run line just once in that nine-game stretch, continuing to perform as baseball’s worst team for bettors (42.4% cover rate).

Seattle is a -115 favorite to win the AL West, though Houston has slightly better odds to make the World Series. The Astros are +750 to win the pennant, ahead of Seattle (+850) but behind four other clubs, including the favored Yankees (+260).

The Mariners’ biggest asset remains their pitching, which sports the majors’ third-best ERA at 3.55. Thanks to a rotation headlined by Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Logan Gilbert, Tuesday’s projected starter, the Mariners have an MLB-leading 53 quality starts.

Unsurprisingly, 56.3% of Seattle’s games have hit the Under. That’s the fifth-highest rate behind Atlanta (63.1), Texas (59.8), Houston (59.3) and Kansas City (57.3).

When making MLB score predictions, bettors must monitor the status of outfielder Julio Rodriguez, who exited Saturday’s 5-4 loss with a sore quad. Rodriguez didn’t start Sunday but entered as a pinch runner and was hit by a pitch in his lone plate appearance. The Mariners are listing him as day-to-day.

Waiting on Tatis

San Diego’s National League West hopes may be slim, but it’s alive and well in the wild card race. At 49-45, the Padres hold a 2.0-game lead on Arizona and New York for the third and final playoff spot in the NL. As such, their MLB playoff odds are -115.

The Padres began their nine-game homestand by dropping two of three against the Diamondbacks. That includes a 9-1 loss on Sunday in which third baseman Eugenio Suarez homered and drove in five runs. The blowout defeat lowered San Diego’s run differential to plus-23.

San Diego failed to cover for the second straight game but is 7-4 against the run line over the last 11. It is one of seven NL teams with a cover rate above 50%.

The Padres — 7.5 games behind the first-place Dodgers — are +2000 longshots to win the NL, though they have the pieces to contend when healthy. Outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr., who has hit 14 homers with 36 RBI and an .821 OPS, will be out until after the All-Star Game due to a stress reaction in his right quad.

While Tatis could have kept playing with the injury, it wasn’t a risk he was willing to take. He hasn’t played since a 9-5 win over Milwaukee on June 21 and is on the 10-day injured list.

Without him, the Padres continue to rank second in the majors in batting average (.263) and eighth in both runs (437) and home runs (105). They have performed accordingly for Over/Under bettors, hitting the Over at a rate of 54.8%.

Series Probables

Game 1

Tuesday, 9:40 p.m. ET

Logan Gilbert vs Adam Mazur

Gilbert has been steady atop Seattle’s rotation, registering a 2.91 ERA and 0.92 WHIP, which ranks third in baseball behind Detroit’s Tarik Skubal (0.90) and Atlanta’s Chris Sale (0.91). He was especially strong in June, allowing only seven runs over 35.2 innings (1.51). The Mariners went 4-1 in those starts.

As such, Gilbert has the fourth-best AL Cy Young odds at +1500.

Mazur, meanwhile, has struggled. In five starts since his call-up from Triple-A El Paso, Mazur has an unsightly 7.52 ERA and 1.82 WHIP. The 23-year-old right-hander, San Diego’s No. 5 prospect per MLB Pipeline, has issued more walks (17) than strikeouts (15).

Be sure to keep that in mind when analyzing the Mariners vs Padres MLB betting odds.

Game 2

Wednesday, 6 :40 p.m. ET

Bryce Miller vs Randy Vazquez

Miller was terrific in April, recording a 1.19 ERA in five starts. However, he’s been a bit erratic since. The 25-year-old right-hander has gone fewer than six innings in five of his last six starts dating to June 7.

Despite that, Miller’s season ERA is a respectable 3.84.

He will face Vazquez, who is 2-4 with a 4.66 ERA. After a rough start in Philadelphia where he allowed 12 hits and six runs in 4.1 innings, Vazquez has bounced back in his last three appearances, giving up only three runs across 15.1 frames.

For MLB pitching matchups and odds, betting analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.


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