Marlins vs Braves MLB Betting: Atlanta Losing Grip on Wild Card Spot

Teams Meet in Atlanta For Four-Game Series

The Miami Marlins (40-68) visit the Atlanta Braves (58-49) for four games starting Thursday. Atlanta hopes the Marlins are just what the doctor ordered, as the Braves have seen their lead in the wild card race fall to 1.0 games.

The Braves were just 11-13 in the month of July, which didn’t help the playoff push. The Marlins were 10-14 in July, which isn’t good, but a little better than the team’s season winning percentage. Miami is expected to start Max Meyer, while the Braves will give the ball to Charlie Morton.

The Marlins vs Braves MLB betting odds see Atlanta favored -190 and the total on the game is 9. The Braves are Even on the run line -1.5 runs.

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The Marlins are weak offensively and the pitching isn’t very good, which is a poor combination. Miami is No. 21 in team batting average and No. 28 in home runs. As a result, the Marlins are scoring just 3.6 runs per game. The Major League average is 4.4 runs per game.

The pitching staff is No. 26 in team ERA and it would be worse if not for a decent bullpen. Miami is No. 11 in bullpen ERA, although it has just 20 saves in 39 attempts. The defense hasn’t helped, with the Marlins having allowed 56 unearned runs on the season.

Marlins logo Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Braves logo

Day/Time:
Location: Truist Park
Streaming: MLB
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Braves Struggling Offensively

Atlanta started the season out strong offensively, but the offense has gone south the past few months. The Braves are averaging 4.2 runs for the season, but scored 4.0 runs in June and July. Atlanta is No. 7 in home runs, so you would expect a bit more scoring from the Braves. Atlanta’s on-base percentage is No. 25, so they’re not getting runners on base.

Atlanta’s pitching has been strong, with the team No. 2 in team ERA. The Braves have 26 saves in 38 attempts, so they’re not getting the opportunities. The Braves bullpen is also No. 2 in bullpen ERA. Atlanta has seen a few injuries to pitchers, but it’s the offense that has the team fighting for the playoffs, something that looked to be in the bag a few months ago.

Thursday’s Game

Meyer has started four games for Miami and pitched well for the most part. His last outing at Milwaukee wasn’t his best, but he’s 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA. The Marlins are 3-1 when he starts and one of those wins was over Chris Sale and the Braves.

Morton is 5-6 for Atlanta and sporting a 4.13 ERA, so it’s not his best season so far. The Braves are just 8-11 when Morton takes the mound and 5-5 when he starts at home. The odds on the Braves game today don’t really reflect the trouble the team has had winning with Morton on the mound.

This is one of those cases where you can’t bet on Atlanta due to the odds, but are a little hesitant to pull the trigger on Miami. It’s not always easy betting a poor team even if the odds are pretty generous. If you have to bet this game, the under probably makes the most sense.

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Friday’s Game

The Marlins haven’t named a pitcher yet for this game. It would have been Trevor Rogers up in the rotation, but he was dealt to Baltimore on Tuesday. Miami could go with Shaun Anderson, but he’s been brutal in his two starts with the team. Kyle Tyler is slated to pitch Saturday, so it’s likely Anderson or a bullpen game.

The Braves have Spencer Schwellenbach slated to take the mound. While he hasn’t been great, he’s pitched better than his record indicates. Schwellenbach is 4-5 with a 4.06 ERA, but had a strong July going 3-1 with a 2.08 ERA.

The Braves are 4-6 when Schwellenbach starts, but haven’t given him much support. Atlanta is averaging just 2.8 runs per game when he starts and as a result are 1-9 in totals with him on the mound.

The line is going to be pretty high in this one and deservedly so. All three Atlanta wins in July were by at least four runs and if you want to back the Braves here, take them on the run line to lower the odds.

Saturday’s Game

Tyler and Reynaldo Lopez are the scheduled starters for Saturday and the the Marlins vs Braves MLB betting lines will see Atlanta as big favorites once again.

Lopez is considered “day-to-day,” but an MRI on his shoulder came back negative on Sunday and he’ll try to start here. He’s been one of Atlanta’s best pitchers this season and the Braves are 12-7 when he starts and 7-3 at home.

Tyler has an 0-2 record with a 4.74 ERA and the Marlins are 2-3 when he takes the mound. His last two starts have been a little bit rough, as he’s allowed 16 hits in 8 2/3 innings. His control hasn’t been the greatest, so too many runners are getting on base. He may have a little more success against an Atlanta team that doesn’t walk that often.

The under may be the way to go in this one. If Tyler can keep his walks down, he’ll be that much more effective on the mound. Atlanta is 4-13-2 in totals when Lopez is pitching, so the under could be one of the best MLB bets today.

Sunday’s Game

Edward Cabrera makes the start for Miami and the Marlins vs Braves MLB betting lines will have him a large underdog. Bryce Elder is a possibility to start for Atlanta, although he’ll have to be called back up from the minors. He did throw well his last game with Atlanta, allowing one run in 6 1/3 innings.

Cabrera has struggled this year, although the Marlins are 5-5 when he takes the mound despite his 6.65 ERA. Miami is 9-1 in totals when Cabrera starts and that’s probably going to be the safest wager here.

For MLB betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.


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