Marlins vs Braves Preview: Miami Closing the Gap?
Atlanta Emerges as +400 World Series Favorite

The Atlanta Braves are rolling along, seemingly headed to a sixth consecutive National League East championship. Most assumed that either New York or Philadelphia would be Atlanta’s biggest competitor within the division, but instead it’s the resurgent Miami Marlins. The Marlins entered Thursday 13 games above .500, good for second place behind Atlanta in the NL East.
With Atlanta set to host Miami for a three-game series starting Friday, we took a closer look at both clubs. Read on for our Marlins vs Braves preview.
‘Hot’lanta Braves
There isn’t a hotter team right now than Atlanta. The Braves have won five straight and are 9-1 over their last 10 games to improve to 53-27. Atlanta’s .663 winning percentage matches Tampa Bay for the best in baseball.
As such, Atlanta has overtaken Los Angeles as the NL favorite at +175. The Braves are also now the oddsmakers’ choice to win the World Series, priced at +400. The Rays (+550), Dodgers (+650) and Astros (+900) are next in line.
The Braves continue to bludgeon opponents, leading baseball in home runs while ranking second in hits and third in runs scored. Seven different Braves have already hit double-digit homers, led by first baseman Matt Olson, whose 26 longballs are second to Angels two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani.
Olson still isn’t getting much love in the NL MVP market (+5000), perhaps in part to the brilliance of fellow Brave Ronald Acuna Jr. The 25-year-old outfielder ranks top 10 in several categories, including average (.331), OPS (.993) and stolen bases (36). In doing so, he’s solidified himself as the MVP favorite at -200.
Marlins Surging
Miami certainly wasn’t on anyone’s radar to contend in the NL East. While most focused their attention on the Braves, Mets and Phillies, the Marlins were a mere afterthought, priced at +4400 to win the division. Although it still seems highly unlikely that Miami will be able to leapfrog Atlanta, which entered Thursday with a comfortable 6.5-game lead in the MLB 2023 standings, the Marlins still find themselves in the thick of the playoff race.
At 47-34, they currently hold the top Wild Card spot. The question is, can they stay there? It’s reasonable to be skeptical of their staying power, as their run differential is only minus-2. However, they’ve also spent a significant stretch of the season without one of their best hitters in outfielder Jazz Chisholm Jr.
The 2022 All-Star returned to the lineup this week after missing 39 games with a toe injury. Keep that in mind as you assess the odds in our Marlins vs Braves preview.
Second baseman Luis Arraez, acquired in an offseason trade with Minnesota, is hitting .396. He’s also posted an outstanding .447 on-base percentage and is way on his way to winning a second consecutive batting crown. He’s struck out just 16 times in 288 at-bats and is now +2000 on the MVP oddsboard.
Despite that, Miami entered its series finale against Boston ranked 24th in runs scored.
âš¾ Game 1 âš¾
TBD vs Bryan Hoeing
Friday, 7:20 p.m. ET
The 26-year-old Hoeing has been impressive as a spot starter for Miami. He threw five hitless innings in his last appearance, June 24 against Pittsburgh, and owns a 2.31 ERA across 18 appearances (four starts).
Hoeing hasn’t thrown more than 65 pitches since April, so Miami may plan to lean heavily on its bullpen. Atlanta has yet to name a starter, which could impact the line movement in our Marlins vs Braves preview.
Early markets still opened with the Braves as solid -185 favorites, with a total of 10 leaning to the under.
âš¾ Game 2 âš¾
Charlie Morton vs Eury Perez
Saturday, 4:10 p.m. ET
Morton limited Miami to one run over seven innings in a 7-4 victory on April 25 in the Marlins vs Braves matchup. The 39-year-old right-hander has been one of the few steady hands in Atlanta’s banged-up rotation, going 7-6 with a 3.81 ERA. He’s struck out 100 over 85 innings.
Miami will counter with the 20-year-old Perez, who has been spectacular since debuting in May. Perez has allowed just one run over his last six starts, lowering his ERA to 1.34. The Dominican right-hander’s NL Rookie of the Year odds have climbed to +4000, though Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll remains a runaway favorite at -450.
âš¾ Game 3 âš¾
Spencer Strider vs Sandy Alcantara
Sunday, 1:35 p.m. ET
Strider has stepped up in the absence of ace left-hander Max Fried, ranking first in MLB in strikeouts (146) and tied for third in wins (nine). He threw eight shutout innings while striking out 13 in an 11-0 victory over Miami on April 24. At +600, Strider currently owns the third-best odds for NL Cy Young behind Arizona’s Zac Gallen (+175) and Los Angeles’ Clayton Kershaw (+400).
Alcantara, the reigning NL Cy Young winner, has largely disappointed. He is 3-6 and owns a career-worst 4.82 ERA. In two starts against Atlanta this MLB season, Alcantara’s combined to allow five runs over 10.2 innings.
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