Marlins vs Phillies Preview: Philadelphia Falling
Phillies Look to Snap Three-Game Skid
The Philadelphia Phillies look to snap a three-game losing streak when the Miami Marlins visit Tuesday. The losing streak hasn’t hurt the Phillies much per the division race. It hurts the home-field advantage for the MLB playoffs, as Philadelphia has fallen behind the Dodgers. The Miami Marlins could be just what the Phillies need to return to the winning column. Miami is one-half game in front of Colorado for the worst record in the National League.
The Marlins vs Phillies preview will show Valente Bellozo and Taijuan Walker as the starters on Tuesday.
- The Phillies are -200 with a total of 9-under (-115).
Marlins vs Phillies 
Records: Miami Marlins (44-75), Philadelphia Phillies (69-49)
Day/Time:
Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Streaming: BSFL, NBCSP
The Marlins didn’t get to 44-75 by accident. Miami doesn’t hit the ball very well, ranking No. 21 in team batting average with a .237 mark. The Marlins don’t hit for power, ranking No. 27 with 109 home runs.
Miami has drawn the fewest walks of any team in MLB, which puts them at No. 29 in on-base percentage. The Marlins are scoring 3.7 runs per game, well below the MLB average of 4.44 runs per game.
Miami is No. 28 in team ERA and hasn’t helped itself by allowing 61 unearned runs. The Marlins are allowing opposing baseball teams to hit .256, the fourth-worst in baseball.
The relievers are No. 14 in bullpen ERA, but Miami is just 23 for 45 in save attempts. The 2024 MLB scores show Miami is allowing 5.05 runs per game.
The Marlins have been bad at home or on the road, but are a little worse as visitors. Miami is 20-36 on the road this season and 31-48 when playing a team above .500.
Philadelphia Bats Go Quiet
The Phillies are averaging 4.85 runs per game for the season, although that number has dropped to 4.47 runs since July 1. Philadelphia is just 14-20 in that period, as the pitching has also gone downhill.
The Phillies are still in the top 10 in nearly all major offensive categories. They’re no longer near the top in most of them, however. Philadelphia is No. 7 in team batting average and slugging percentage and No. 9 in home runs.
One reason for the Philadelphia struggles the past six weeks is the schedule. The Phillies have had 12 home games and 22 away baseball games.
The Marlins vs Phillies preview shows Philadelphia is a much better home team, going 38-21 at home and 31-28 on the road.
The Phillies are No. 2 in team ERA on the season, but the relievers are No. 21 in bullpen ERA. Still, the Phillies have converted 28 saves in 45 attempts, so they’re getting the job done. Philadelphia pitchers allow 4.08 runs per game on the season, but 5.38 runs since July 1.
Tuesday’s Pitchers
Bellozo hasn’t pitched badly for the Marlins, who are 1-3 when he starts. He has a 1-1 record with a 3.05 ERA, but the bullpen hasn’t done him any favors. Miami has allowed at least four runs in all of Bellozo’s starts, although he’s allowed two runs or fewer in three of them.
He hasn’t lasted six innings in any start, so you’ll see the Miami bullpen unless you play the first five innings for one of your MLB picks.
The Marlins vs Phillies preview shows Walker is 3-3 with a 5.60 ERA and the Phillies are 4-6 when he starts. He’ll be making his first start since June 21 after a blister sidelined him.
He made a rehab start at AA Reading and was effective, allowing one run in five innings. The Phillies lost his last five starts before he went to the MLB injured list.
Projected Starting Pitchers for the Miami Marlins series at Citizens Bank Park:
Tuesday 6:40pm:
Valente Bellozo vs. Taijuan WalkerWednesday 6:40pm:
Xzavion Curry vs. Tyler Phillipspic.twitter.com/s87y6Gf3D0— Phillies Tailgate (@PhilsTailgate) August 11, 2024
Who to Bet On?
This isn’t one of the better MLB games today, although it could be decent depending on Bellozo. He has 19 strikeouts in 20 2/3 innings, so he’s holding his own on the mound.
- The Phillies need to see more out of Walker than he’s shown this season.
- Philadelphia has allowed four or more runs in nine of his 10 stats on the year.
You’re not going to win a lot of games with pitching like that. If Walker can restore his confidence, he’ll help the team out down the stretch. The rehab start was a good place to begin.
This one is a tough call, but it’s a little easier to make a case for the under than the over in this one. Bellozo looks like the real deal and the Marlins could be what Walker needs to begin his road back.
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