Mets Have To Right Ship Facing Twins

Mets as Favorites

After an exciting five-game winning streak this week with wins over the Miami Marlins, New York Yankees and Atlanta Braves, the New York Mets had a rough weekend as they were outscored 13-2 by the Braves in a pair of ugly losses. The Twins vs Mets series odds open up with the Mets as -115 moneyline favorites and -190 with a +1.5 runline. The total is 8.5 runs.

New York tries to get back on track this week against the Minnesota Twins, who currently hold the second American League Wild Card spot.

The Mets offense is a top-ten group by most accounts right now even after the ugly showings on Saturday and Sunday. The Mets went 20 innings between runs from the 4th inning of Friday’s win to the 8th inning of Sunday’s loss.

They’ll try to return to form against their former prospect Simeon Woods Richardson, who will get the start for the Twins. Even though Woods Richardson has been great for Minnesota, the MLB scores and odds today favor New York.

Minnesota has won three of four as the Twins try to both remain in striking distance behind the AL Central-leading Cleveland Guardians and the AL Wild Card-leading New York Yankees as well as maintain a cushion over the likes of the Kansas City Royals, Boston Red Sox and Seattle Mariners.

They haven’t made any major trades yet but, with Royce Lewis and José Miranda recently returning from injuries, the lineup has gotten some reinforcements even with Alex Kirilloff and Carlos Correa currently on the IL. The Twins have one of baseball’s most well-rounded offenses.

Mets’ Offense Is In A Funk

After blitzing the Yankees at Yankee Stadium last week and beating up on the Braves on Thursday and Friday, the Mets’ offense — currently sixth in runs and fifth in home runs — was riding high before crashing back down to earth the last two days.

Since late May, the offense, as reflected in the Twins vs Mets series odds, has been one of, if not the, best in baseball so there isn’t much of a reason to expect this team-wide slump to continue. Plus, it’s not like the Mets aren’t hitting at all, they are just struggling with runners in scoring position.

Something to note with New York is that the Mets heavily rely on the home run ball. When you have a lot of home run hitters, as they do, that doesn’t seem to be a problem.

The best offensive teams tend to hit a lot of home runs because it’s a quick way to put up lots of runs without having to risk unfortunate batted-ball luck. Even with Pete Alonso having a so-so (by his standards) season, the Mets have swatted the second-most longballs in the National League and have five guys with 11+ dingers.

When they’re going well, it feels like everyone in the Mets’ lineup can go deep. But, when they aren’t, it can seem as if manufacturing runs are almost impossible.

So, if the Twins can keep New York in the yard, they could be in a good spot this series. But, their rotation is 26th in home runs allowed per nine innings which brings that into question. The MLB playoffs odds for the Mets hinge on whether this lineup can continue to outscore teams because the rotation and bullpen have been shaky.

Twins Need Back End Of Rotation To Shine

On a peripheral basis, the Minnesota rotation should be better than it has turned out to be. The Twins’ starters have the third-best WHIP, second-best walk rate, and best strikeout rate in the Majors but are 21st in ERA.

Much of that discontinuity is due to the high home run rate which is why so many of their relatively few baserunners can score. The Twins vs Mets series odds take that into account.

That high ERA is also due to the struggles of starters not named Bailey Ober or Joe Ryan. Woods Richardson has been good but Pablo López (Wednesday’s starter) has an ERA approaching 5.00 because he allows nearly 1.5 home runs per nine innings.

It doesn’t matter how many guys you strike out or how good you are at preventing baserunners if, when you do have traffic on the basepaths, it’s often brought home with an extra-base hit.

Also, while Minnesota has benefited from strong rotation health thus far, the injury to Chris Paddack means the inexperienced David Festa will start on Tuesday.

Festa has been roughed up in two of the three starts he has made this season even though he held the Phillies to one run over 4 1/3 innings on Wednesday. The Mets could beat up on him.

Side With New York And Quintana

For Monday’s game, take the Mets as slight home favorites at -115. Woods Richardson gives up a lot of flyball outs and doesn’t strike too many guys out so he could have issues with a powerful New York offense.

The MLB implied runs really like the Mets’ chances to bounce back, especially with José Quintana — who, other than a rough start right before the All-Star break — has been very good for the past month and a half. Even though these are two top-ten offenses, take the under 8.5 runs (-115) as well with two starters amid good stretches.

For MLB betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

Can’t get enough? Here’s more!

• Kansas City To Continue Dominating ChiSox
• Gilbert and Pivetta Set to Get It Going in Red Sox-Mariners Series
• Nationals vs Diamondbacks Series Betting: Key Pitching Duel
• Texas Tries To Turn Things Around In St. Louis
• Cleveland Looks To Reverse Losing Trend in Motor City

Subscribe to get

Thank you for subscribing