Mets vs Padres Series Odds: San Diego Favored in Showdown of Playoff Contenders

Carrasco and Snell to Square off in Mets-Padres Series Opener

Two of the Best Teams in the National League Ready to Collide

While it is still early June, it is hard not to get excited when two of the best teams in the National League get together for a three-game series. The  Mets have the best record in the National League while the Padres have recorded the third-best mark in the NL. The Mets vs Padres series odds slightly favor the host, San Diego.

The visiting New York Mets have a commanding 8 1/2 game lead in the NL East while the San Diego Padres are just two games behind the NL West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers. The Mets are third in the majors with a team batting average of .258 on the road and their OPS of .728 away from home ranks fifth.

The Padres are just three games over .500 at home. Much of that has to do with a team batting average of .222 at Petco Park. San Diego has 73 runs in 23 home games.

The Mets (+700) have the third-best odds to win the World Series while the Padres are tied for seventh at +1600. The series price favors the host Padres as the Moneyline is -125.

Series Information

  • Records: Mets 37-19 (first in the NL East) Padres 33-21 (second in the NL West)
  • Location: Petco Park
  • Day/Time: Monday, 9:40 p.m. ET (teams also play at 9:40 p.m. on Tuesday and Wednesday)
  • Television: The games on Monday and Wednesday are on MLB Network while all three games will be shown in the New York market on SNY.

Mets vs Padres Probable Starting Pitchers

  • Monday: Carlos Carrasco (Mets) Blake Snell (Padres)
  • Tuesday: Taijuan Walker (Mets) Yu Darvish (Padres)
  • Wednesday: Chris Bassitt (Mets) Manaea (Padres)

Mets, a Hitting Machine

For those expecting the bubble to burst and for the New York Mets to come back to the pack, that doesn’t seem to be happening. That will factor into the Mets vs Padres series odds.

While the pitching numbers may have fallen back a bit after a red-hot start, the Mets have the best team batting average (.298), on-base percentage (.357), and slugging percentage (.491) over the last 15 days. The Mets are 9-4 during that stretch as they moved by the Dodgers to post the best winning percentage in the National League heading into the series.

Pete Alonso has led the way with six homers and 17 RBIs in his last 13 games. He’s had plenty of help. J.D. Davis (.393), Tomas Nido (.391), Luis Guillorme (.364), Jeff McNeil (.333), Francisco Lindor (.327), and Mark Canha (.326) are all hitting over .300 during that stretch with 11 doubles and six home runs.

The starting pitching for the Mets has been a little shaky over those last 13 games, however, Adonis Medina, Colin Holderman, Stephen Nogosek, and Adam Ottavino are 2-0 with a 1.19 ERA out of the bullpen during that span.

Padres Vets Finding Groove

The San Diego Padres weren’t shy about making huge trades to improve its starting rotation. Some of those acquisitions got off to tough starts. Yu Darvish gave up five, and nine runs in two of his first seven starts. Sean Manaea allowed 11 hits, and 10 runs in 11 innings of work in his last two outings in April. Blake Snell didn’t make his first start until May 18 and it didn’t go well, with three hits and three runs surrendered in less than four innings.

All three are throwing better recently and that could play a key role in the Mets vs Padres series odds.

Snell has allowed three hits with 13 strikeouts in his last two starts, Darvish allowed two runs in 13.2 innings in back-to-back starts while one of Manaea’s best starts came the last time out.

They will need to be locating their pitches when facing a red-hot Mets lineup.

With the way Joe Musgrove and Mackenzie Gore are throwing this season, the Padres could be a tough out if Darvish, Manaea, and Snell display their form from previous seasons.

Who’s Hot

  • Edwin Diaz, Mets P: Diaz hasn’t allowed a hit and struck out three of the six batters he faced in his last two appearances.
  • Sean Manaea, Padres P: Manaea allowed one run and struck out eight in six innings during his last start.
  • Tomas Nido, Mets C: Nido is batting .462 with four RBIs in his last four games.
  • Luke Voit, Padres 1B: Voit has nine hits in his last 26 at-bats.

Who’s Not

  • Ha-seong Kim, Padres IF: Kim has two hits in his last 21 at-bats.
  • Seth Lugo, Mets P: Lugo has given up five hits over four innings in his last three outings.
  • Brandon Nimmo, Mets OF: Nimmo has two hits in his last 20 at-bats with no extra-base hits in his last six games.
  • Taylor Rogers, Padres P: The San Diego closer has given up three hits and six runs over 2.2 innings in his last two outings.

Injury Update

When it comes to New York Mets news, catcher James McCann and starting pitcher Tylor Megill aren’t expected back until late June while outfielder Travis Jankowski could be sidelined until late July.

The Padres are hoping to get infielder Fernando Tatis Jr. and outfielder Wil Myers back later this month. Their return will boast the San Diego Padres championship odds. The story is the same with relievers Austin Adams, and Adrian Morejon.

Mets vs Padres Betting Analysis

The Mets have won four of the last five games against the Padres, including the last two games played in San Diego.

Only two of the last 10 games have been decided by one run. The opening game of the series has a total of 7.5 runs and six of the last eight games between the teams would have fallen under that number.

The Padres held Mets slugger Pete Alonso in check-in 2021 as Alonso had no extra-base hits and a .217 average in seven games against San Diego in 2021.

Two of the top hitters for the Padres against the Mets in 2021 were Tatis and Myers who are both still sidelined. MVP candidate Manny Machado hit just .238 in six games against New York last season.

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