Mets vs Rays Betting Odds Favor For Opener

As Christian Scott Makes Big League Debut on Saturday

The New York Mets will travel to St. Petersburg for a three-game series over the weekend against the Rays. It’s an early interleague matchup against Tampa Bay on the MLB schedule. That said, while the Rays have been great for multiple seasons, they’ve hit a minor roadblock this season.

We’ve got an exciting matchup between the Mets and Rays on Friday. Lefty Jose Quintana will pitch for the Mets, and veteran righty Aaron Civale will pitch for the Rays. Civale currently has a 5.06 ERA, while Quintana has held teams to a 3.48 ERA. Despite this, the Rays are favorites at -138 with a run line of -1.5 (+160). The total currently sits at eight, leaning under (-114).

Tampa Bay is just 14-18 on the season and sitting in last place in the AL East. On the other hand, the Mets added a walk-off win against the Cubs to salvage their four-game series. New York is one game above .500 and just five games away from first place in the NL East despite an 0-5 start to the season.

If you removed that iffy start, the Mets would be in contention for first place in the division. However, New York only managed two wins against the Cubs at home in their most recent four-game series. The Mets had their opportunities but haven’t been consistent enough in hitting the ball.

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It’s unlikely to change against Tampa Bay’s pitching staff. However, the Rays haven’t had much success offensively, either.

Let’s dig deeper into the Mets vs Rays betting odds for this weekend-long series.

Mets logo Mets vs Rays Rays logo

Records: New York Mets (16-15), Tampa Bay Rays (14-18)
Day/Time
:
Location: Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL
Stream: SNY

Christian Scott Gets The Call

The Mets have decided to go with a six-man rotation in the meantime. They’ve finally called up Christian Scott from Triple-A. He is 3-0 with a 3.20 ERA in Triple-A. In 25.1 innings of work, he has accumulated 36 strikeouts and a WHIP of .71.

If Scott pitches well enough, the Mets will likely stay with a six-man rotation. If not, he’ll likely be sent back down, and the Mets will return to a five-man rotation. It was ultimately time to give the 24-year-old a shot with how he pitched in the minors this season.

Suspensions In Tampa Bay

On Tuesday, the Brewers and Rays got into a major brawl in the eighth inning that saw Jose Siri, ejected. The Rays’ outfielder was suspended for three games, but it was later reduced to two games after an appeal. Therefore, Siri won’t be available for the Rays to open up the series.

Mets vs Rays Betting Odds For Game 1:

RL: ML: Rays -128, O/U 8 -110/-110

Game 1

Friday, 6:40 pm ET
Jose Quintana vs. Aaron Civale

While Jose Quintana has an ERA of 3.48, he’s also held righties to a .093 ISO and wOBA of .292. Quintana’s walks are unusually high. He’s also only earned 16% of strikeouts. The starter struggles against lefties but likely won’t have to face many in the Tampa Bay lineup.

The Rays are much better against lefties than righties. Since last season, Yandy Diaz, Richie Palacios, Randy Arozarena, and Amed Rosario have hit high ISO numbers. Along with Niko Goodrum, Jose Caballero, and Curtis Mead, those four bats have also hit a high wOBA.

The Rays will pitch Aaron Civale for the series opener. Civale has dominated righties but has allowed a .208 ISO and wOBA of .387 to his first 52 lefties. Civale has also allowed 28.4% of line drives and 28.4% of fly balls, with only 36.8% of ground balls.

Civale will face a Mets lineup that hasn’t been elite against righties since last season. The Mets are getting power from Brandon Nimmo, D.J. Stewart, Pete Alonso, and Francisco Lindor. But that’s it for New York. However, the Mets have done well limiting strikeouts against righties.

With all that, the under in the total looks to be the play in this game. Many of the MLB scores today look like they’ll be low-scoring.

Game 2

Saturday, 7:15 pm ET
Christian Scott vs. Zack Littell

Christian Scott will make his major league debut as the New York Mets‘ starter on a nationally televised broadcast through FOX. Scott has developed in the Mets’ farm system for years and pitched well enough in the minors to get a shot. If all goes well, it’s expected the Mets will stay in that six-man rotation, as suggested above.

Against righties, the projected order has hit just a .121 ISO and wOBA of .289 against other righties. Only Richie Palacios has put up good numbers against righties since last season. Scott should have a successful first start.

The Rays will have Zack Littell on the mound in Game 2. Littell has limited walks to 3.5% and allowed just a .119 ISO. However, Littell has still given up a .348 wOBA due to low strikeouts and high line drives allowed to his first 80 righties of the year.

We’d recommend finding the best odds for the Mets in Game 2. They’ll be one of our top MLB betting picks of the day.

Game 3

Sunday, 1:40 pm ET
Luis Severino vs. Ryan Pepiot

With Scott getting the start on Saturday, Luis Severino was pushed to Sunday’s start. He’ll have an extra day of rest, which should only help him pitch well.

This season, Severino has held teams to a .078 ISO and wOBA of .260. He’s not getting high strikeout numbers, but he’s limited walks to 7.7% and has earned over 54% of ground balls.

Severino took a no-hitter into the 8th inning last time. After going pretty deep in his most recent start, he’ll have an extra day of rest before starting.

Again, the Tampa Bay Rays don’t hit righties very well, so this should be another solid start for Severino.

On the other hand, it’ll be Ryan Pepiot for the Rays. He’s a righty, who has struck out more than 29% of batters. He’s also held teams to a .242 wOBA, despite allowing more fly balls than ground balls this season. Last season, Pepiot struggled a bit more against righties, allowing a .241 ISO and wOBA of .332. However, this season, righties have a wOBA of .207 against Pepiot.

New York’s lineup should have more potential in this game. Once the Mets vs. Rays betting odds come out for Game 3, we’d back the Mets in Sunday’s series finale.

For MLB betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.


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