Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Series Preview and Odds
New York Is Looking Better
Two of the most disappointing teams in MLB in 2024 reside in the NL East and they face off with each other for a three-game series this week as the last-place Miami Marlins visit the fourth-place New York Mets at Citi Field starting on Tuesday night.
Miami has lost six of seven while New York has actually been playing better as of late, winning four of five including a split of the two-game London Series with the Philadelphia Phillies. The Marlins vs Mets betting odds have the Mets as -133 moneyline favorites for the opener. The total is 7.5 runs.
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Expert Pick: Subscribe below to get our Premium Insights!Miami had gone on a 7-2 spurt a few weeks ago but has reverted back into a pattern of little offense and shaky starting pitching. The Marlins scored a total of six runs in this weekend series against the Cleveland Guardians — they lost the final two games — and have been shut out four times in their last 10 games.
Scoring has been an issue all year for the Marlins who have plated the second-fewest runs in the Majors and have the second-worst on-base percentage and OPS. Their MLB teams schedule hasn’t mattered; they struggle to push runs across against any opponent.
The month of May was brutal for the Mets but June has been a drop better. New York swept the Washington Nationals last week and beat the Phillies in spectacular fashion on Sunday, using some late-game offensive and defensive heroics. The Mets are still well under .500 but their lineup is starting to turn things around and the rotation is getting healthier.
The bullpen is a major concern, though, and New York hasn’t been able to put together long periods of capable play pretty much all season.
Miami Marlins vs New York Mets 
Day/Time:
Location: Citi Field, Queens, New York
Streaming: MLB
Marlins’ Rotation Is Shaky
It’s bad enough that the Marlins’ offense has been so subpar but the starting rotation — supposed to be a strength for Miami — has also been extremely disappointing. Miami’s starters have the third-worst ERA and second-worst WHIP in baseball, thanks in large part to major injury problems and ineffectiveness by the guys who have been able to stay healthy. That’s a main reason why the Marlins vs Mets betting odds favor New York so heavily.
Jesús Luzardo starts on Tuesday while Braxton Garrett goes Wednesday and Roddery Muñoz is Thursday’s projected starter. Luzardo has had some impressive outings — including six scoreless innings he tossed against the Mets in May — but he has also put together a few clunkers, notably the nine runs he gave up to the Rays last Tuesday. His stuff seems to change radically from start to start.
Garrett has a 5.81 ERA with peripheral numbers that suggest he has been a bit unlucky. He too is capable of big things, such as the complete game shutout he had against the Arizona Diamondbacks a few starts ago, but too often gives up big chunks of runs in a hurry. Any Muñoz start in the Miami Marlins baseball schedule is a wild card, owing to his issues with walks (five per nine innings) and home runs (nearly four per nine innings through his first four starts of the year).
Mets’ Bats Are Waking Up
The New York Mets are far from being out of the woods in terms of their up-and-down offense but the Mets’ lineup — filled with stars — could be on the verge of officially breaking out. Starting catcher Francisco Álvarez is set to return on Tuesday after a long absence due to thumb surgery,
Francisco Lindor has been red hot over the past two weeks, veterans Starling Marte and J.D. Martinez have been productive, and Pete Alonso continues to be one of the game’s premier home run hitters. No wonder the Marlins vs. Mets betting odds like New York.
The Mets continue to struggle when they have runners in scoring position and that’s a major reason why they are only 17th in runs scored while being 11th in home runs and 12th in on-base percentage. At some point, though, you’d think that all those baserunners and home runs would be sequenced better and results in more run production.
Considering the state of the Marlins’ rotation and mediocre bullpen, New York should be able to continue its recent offensive improvement, highlighted by big outputs against the Nationals last week.
Go With New York
The MLB implied runs indicate that New York will score early and often against Luzardo, who has had success against the Mets but is so wildly inconsistent that it’s hard to trust him to perform well against a right-handed-heavy lineup. Also, Tylor Megill — New York’s starter on Tuesday — has looked good since coming back from injury. Take the Mets to win straight-up at -133 on the moneyline.
The total is a low 7.5 runs so you should strongly consider the over. The Mets’ bad bullpen makes that a good bet.
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