MLB All-Star Game Odds, Betting Trends, Storylines

The Midsummer Classic returns Tuesday (8 p.m. ET) at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas, with the American League facing the National League in the 94th Major League Baseball All-Star Game. Pirates rookie Paul Skenes (6-0, 1.90 ERA) was tabbed to start on the mound for the NL opposite Corbin Burnes (9-4, 2.43 ERA) of the Orioles.

The AL has won nine of the last 10 All-Star Games since 2013 (the game was canceled in 2020 because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The AL also leads the all-time series 47-44-2.

This year’s MLB odds are priced accordingly, with the AL a -122 favorite and +1.5 (-205) on the run line. Conversely, the NL is +102 on the moneyline and -1.5 (+170) on the run line. The projected total is 7.5 with a slight edge to the Under at -120. Bettors can get the Over at +100.

What can bettors expect? Ahead of the 2024 MLB All-Star Game, we break down some of the top storylines.

94th MLB All-Star Game

AL vs NL Odds

Scoring Historically at Premium

The All-Star Game is generally low-scoring, with the Under hitting in 13 of the last 17 instances. That, of course, includes the NL’s 3-2 victory last season at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, home of the Mariners.

That broke a nine-game losing streak by the NL, which now trails 44-47-2 all-time in the series.

Because this game has been largely one-sided over the last decade, the AL is a slight betting favorite at -122. It is also +1.5 (-205) on the run line. That said, four of the last six All-Star Games have been decided by a single run, with two ending in extra innings (2017, 2018), so there’s a bit of risk in taking the run line.

Even during those nine consecutive losses, the NL was outscored by only 18 total runs.

The last All-Star Game to feature more than 7.5 combined runs was in 2018, when the AL edged the NL 8-6 in 10 innings at Nationals Park in Washington, D.C. The only other instances on the MLB All-Star schedule in the last decade were in 2014 (5-3 AL) and 2015 (6-3 AL).

Phenom’s Grand Arrival

Skenes’ meteoric rise continues, with the Pirates phenom becoming just the fifth rookie pitcher to start the All-Star Game following Dave Stenhouse (1962), Mark Fidrych (1976), Fernando Valenzuela (1981), and Hideo Nomo (1995). Skenes has been arguably baseball’s best pitcher since getting promoted in May, going 6-0 with a 1.90 ERA over his first 11 starts.

Skenes, who was drafted first overall barely over a year ago, has struck out 89 batters in 66.2 innings while walking 13. He is likely to pitch only an inning, making it unlikely he has much of an impact on the 2024 MLB All-Star Game’s final outcome. Nevertheless, Skenes has the best MLB odds of any pitcher to win MVP (+3500). Only two pitchers since 2000 have taken home the award: Mariano Rivera (2013) and Shane Bieber (2019).

Given the quality of hitters atop the AL MLB All-Star roster, Skenes faces a tough assignment. Guardians outfielder Steven Kwan, who leads the majors with a .352 batting average, will lead off and be followed by Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson and Yankees outfielder Juan Soto.

Skenes is -350 to record at least one strikeout.

Star of the ‘Sho’

Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani, the current betting favorite to win the NL MVP award, ranks near the top of baseball in every major offensive category including home runs (29, 2nd), RBI (69, 6th), and OPS (1.036). Starters generally play only a few innings, and that will be no different with Ohtani.

Despite that, Ohtani is also the oddsmakers’ choice for All-Star Game MVP (+900). Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge has the next-best odds at +1000, followed by Phillies first baseman Bryce Harper (+1200), Henderson (+1300), and Soto (+1400).

Rockies catcher Elias Diaz became an unlikely winner last year after slugging a go-ahead, two-run homer in the eighth inning of the NL’s 3-2 win. Diaz, who was not selected for this year’s game, was proof that one swing can tilt the odds.

Diaz became the third straight position player to win MVP (Vladimir Guerrero Jr in 2021, Giancarlo Stanton in 2022), each of whom homered. That’s important when analyzing the MLB best bets today.

For 2024 MLB All-Star Game odds, betting analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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