MLB: Aug. 6th Weekly Faves/Dogs Report

Favorites rebound with 60% winners last week; road favorites +4.83 units

We are less than two months from the start of the Major League Baseball postseason. With every passing week, it becomes more important that we zero in on a team’s current form because what happened in April has nothing to do with cashing a ticket today.

Our Aug. 6th Weekly Faves/Dogs Report includes last week’s results and an update on how betting baseball’s best in a losing proposition. Then, we’ll finish it off with a handicapping tip that you should add to your arsenal as the heat rolls in.

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Five-Week Winning Streak Comes To An End

The trade deadline has come and gone and like clockwork, favorites ended a long streak of profit. The reasons are clear.

The deadline is like a declaration of whether teams are going for an MLB playoff birth or are looking forward to the following season.

This is when you see teams separate from a win/loss perspective. Keep in mind the oddsmakers will adjust by inflating moneylines down the stretch.

Last week, favorites were 53-35 (60.23%) +3.89 units. It broke a 5-week run where underdogs shoved 27.57 units in our bankrolls behind a record of 198-226 (46.70%).

  • Road favorites led the way with 4.83 units won after putting together a mark of 23-14 (62.16%) +4.83 units. Home favorites were 30-21 (58.82%) but that wasn’t enough to overcome large moneylines (-0.94 units).

The Arizona Diamondbacks smashed bookmakers with five winners in six games (+3.42), followed by the Miami Marlins (3-4, +2.65), and the Boston Red Sox (4-2, +2.61).

The Chicago White Sox drew bettors further into the red with a 0-6 record last week, losing six units. The Philadelphia Phillies were 1-5 (-4.04) with the Milwaukee Brewers next with 3.04 units lost behind a 1-4 record.

As a favorite, the Minnesota Twins took all five games (+3.23) while the Diamondbacks won all four games as a favorite (+2.96) followed by the Cleveland Guardians with two winners (+1.74).

The Marlins dropped four of their seven games as an underdog but that was enough to profit 2.65 units. The Red Sox were next up at 3-1 as a dog (+2.62), while their biggest rival won both of their games in the underdog role when the New York Yankees were 2.43 into the black last week.

Updated MLB futures show the Los Angeles Dodgers as the favorite (+320) while the Philadelphia Phillies (+500) and the New York Yankees (+550).

As we get closer to the postseason, check our weekly updates because future wagering success will come from which club has the best recent form.

Following Top Teams a Losing Long-Term Battle

To begin every season we may look at MLB division odds to get an idea of what teams we should get behind when we make our daily MLB predictions in 2024.

We’re always looking for a blanket way to bet on Major League Baseball but the truth is we should take each game as a separate entity while putting little emphasis on past results to predict the future.

The New York Yankees, Cleveland Guardians, Houston Astros, Atlanta Braves, St. Louis Cardinals, and the Los Angeles Dodgers were expected to win their divisions, making them safe wagers in the minds of most.

Unfortunately, if you would have bet these six MLB teams all season your bankroll would be down 5.46 units despite a combined record of 374-300 (.555).

  • Our Aug. 6th Weekly Faves/Dogs Report breakdown shows these teams were just 21-20 last week (-2.57 units) and 39-40 (-5.69) over the previous two weeks.

Most of your losses would come when these teams were favored (-5.11) while -0.58 units (14-17) as an underdog. Now, we know these are good teams and there must be a time when we can rely on these teams and that would be correct.

When these six teams are between -105 and -119 they’ve produced a record of 53-39 (.576) +8.08 units. Again, betting large moneylines doesn’t pay.

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Turning Up The Heat On Bookmakers

As we fall deeper into the Summer, we’re always curious about how the higher temperatures affect cashing tickets and what teams do the best and worst in these conditions.

  • Last week, favorites were 22-16 (.579, -0.06 units) when temperatures were 85 degrees or more with road favorites 11-7 (+2.28).

Favorites in the heat are 141-102 (.580), producing a small -0.49 loss, while dogs are -9.50 into the red. Interestingly, there is very little difference between home (90-68) and road (51-34) success in 2024.

We broke it down further and discovered that small favorites (-110 to -130) were the best teams to bet on in the heat, with a record of 53-38 (.582, +6.27 units).

The Boston Red Sox 94-0) and Cleveland Guardians (3-0) are a combined 7-0 when favored between -110 and -130 in temperatures above 85 degrees.

The New York Mets (2-5, -3.39), Houston Astros (1-3, -2.15) and the New York Yankees (0-2, -2.00) are the worst. All the bets with your picks and parlays this week.

For MLB betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.


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