MLB: August 13th Weekly Favorite / Dog Report
Underdogs Smash Bookmakers, Road Teams Doing Most of The Damage
Our August 13th weekly favorite/underdog report shows the underdogs are at it again with another 7.06 units won behind a 43-52 record. It continues an incredible stretch of six of seven weeks where blindly betting on the plus money has been profitable.
- Since June 25th, underdogs are 276-331 (.455) +28.52 units. That eats more of their season deficit of -16.75 units (768-1015).
That beats putting a blanket bet over the favorites who have won 57% of the games this season but are buried in a 55.47 unit hole. Let’s further investigate the numbers as we move closer to the start of postseason baseball.
Betting On Teams On Underdog Streaks
Putting our money on MLB teams comfortable in their roles as an underdog was extremely profitable last week, but first, let’s clarify what that means.
We examined the records of favorites or underdogs in today’s MLB match-ups and while in that same role in the prior game.
Betting on underdogs when they were an underdog the game before would have netted the public a profit of 7.24 units, proving once again that baseball is a game of streaks.
- Since July 2nd, if you bet every underdog that was a dog in their previous game, your bankroll would enjoy a 29-unit deposit behind a record of 254-264.
That’s an incredible turnaround for a trend that featured a 532-688 (.436) -71.74 units record between April 11th and July 11th.
In 2024, betting teams in back-to-back underdog situations are 808-971 (-34.09) while the public is -38.30 units when betting back-to-back favorites.
Like most baseball betting tips, we suggest continuing to pound the dogs, but as you can see, MLB trends can go South quickly.
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— Gamechangermarket (@GameChangerMkt) August 12, 2024
How Much Should A Minor League System Mean to Bettors?
We hear the term MLB pipeline thrown around when speaking about a team’s minor league system. We’re sure there will be a day when we get to wager on the minors consistently, although some books already book those games.
Until then, we wondered how much a deep system means to an organization. After the trade deadline, here are the top five minor league systems in the majors.
The List starts with the Tampa Bay Rays (59-59, -3.17), followed by the Baltimore Orioles (70-49, +5.59), Chicago White Sox (29-91, -46.46), Los Angeles Dodgers (70-49, -3.82), and the Washington Nationals (54-65, +6.38).
Combined these teams are -41.48 units but that’s due to the 46.46 units lost by the White Sox.
The teams with the worst systems are the Los Angeles Angels (52-67, +0.42), Houston Astros (63-55, -5.36), Kansas City Royals (65-54, +4.16), San Diego Padres (67-53, +8.94), and the Oakland Athletics (50-69, -1.58).
- These teams combine for 6.58 units of profit. The reason why these studies are important to gamblers is because we need to have an idea of how MLB injuries will affect a team’s chances of winning.
A decent system will allow bettors to continue treating teams as they would when healthy. Looking at the seasonal number we don’t see a clear effect on a team based on their organizational depth.
Using this filter, it’s really about the individual replacement more than it is about depth. So then let’s go back a few years and see how depth since 2022 has impacted wagering today.
The best minor league systems two years ago were the Baltimore Orioles (+5.59), Cleveland Guardians (+13.81), Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.57), Tampa Bay Rays (-3.17) and the Chicago Cubs (-2.57).
These teams are a combined +11.08 units (314-280) while the worst organizations were the Atlanta Braves (-14.62), Seattle Mariners (-2.08), Houston Astros (-5.36), Chicago White Sox (-46.36), and the San Diego Padres (+8.94).who are in the hole -59.58 units.
Atlanta Braves
This where we see a massive difference in clubs with a top farm system in 2022 and what it means to win today. We know it’s far out, but remember what the top systems are now and what it could mean to your MLB picks and parlays in 2026.
Bettors can’t Afford to Get Comfortable
Most baseball bettors will tell you they’re focused on finding streaks, but that brings up the question of when you should look to go against a streak knowing that every streak comes to an end.
We wondered how favorites perform when starting their second straight series on the road. Last week, the favorites were just 2-5 in their next outing after playing three previous games on the road.
- Over the last 30 days, favorites were just 14-13 (-1.61 units). Notice how the loss was minimal even though favorites were just a game over .500.
It seems oddsmakers don’t want to get burned in game one with a road favorite in game one of a new series, because when we move the filter to a team fifth straight game on the road, favorites are 52-41 but still a small -1.72 loss in 2024.
Favorites have thrived when we’re dealing with a combination of sevens. Teams playing their eighth game at home or on the road are 67-35 .657) +12.33 units.
That does it for our August 13th weekly favorite/underdog report, next week we’ll examine how teams with players who have consistent MLB player prop success equates to team betting prosperity.
For MLB betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
