MLB: August 14th Weekly Home/Road Report

Road Teams Slam Books To Add To A Six-Week Run

Road teams add 33.53 units since July 3rd.
San Diego Padres 14-3, adding +10.60 units.
Betting new pitchers yields +3.81 units, 58-64 record.

4 weeks ago 34 4 minutes readMLB Picks & Parlays

MLB: August 14th Weekly Home/Road Report — Winslow Townson / GETTY IMAGES

Cutting Off The Top And Bottom For Winners
Catching Up With Playoff Team Betting
How To Attack Brand New Pitchers

August 14th Weekly Home/Road Report: Profitable MLB Road Teams

Betting on MLB road teams continues to be a winning endeavor after a 50-47 week that produced another 7.59 units of profit led by the Houston Astros who were 6-0 (+5.74), Oakland Athletics 3-1 (+3.58), and the Los Angeles Angels 3-3 (+2.98). Since the third of July, road teams have a record of 263-258, adding 33.53 units to our bankroll.

The Diamondbacks have been road warriors with a 13-4 mark (+10.70) just ahead of the San Diego Padres at 14-3 (+10.60) and the Oakland Athletics with 9.35 units won behind a 10-6 record. This run has inched bettors who like to jump on the road teams closer to profitability with just 8.93 units lost in 2024.

Only once since 2005 has betting strictly on road teams been profitable and that was in 2011 when the public grabbed 28.83 units. Let’s start our August 14th weekly home/road report.

Cutting Off The Top And Bottom For Winners

This is the time of year when we like to eliminate the top and bottom offensive teams from our MLB betting options. The rest are attractive wagers against because we’ve eliminated the elite teams that could send us down the path of a long losing streak and the teams that will force bettors to lay massive numbers to bet against them.

There are a few teams left over that could fit in either category but so far hasn’t damaged our bankroll long-term.

We’ve narrowed our go-against numbers to 3.95 and 4.25 runs per game. This cuts off six teams, three off the top and three off the bottom.

This past week using this system would have packed your bankroll with 10.19 units won with a record of 38-23 (.623). Both home and road teams prospered with home teams taking home 3.14 units (23-15) while road teams fared better with 7.04 units won with a record of 15-8.

Since July 31st, a bettor would be 75-52 (.591) +17.05 units. The San Diego Padres are a perfect 6-0 (+4.00) using this filter while the Los Angeles Angels are the only winless team at 0-3 with at least three decisions.

Overall in 2024, this system is 409-355 (.535) +8.55 units with road teams crushing bookmakers after adding 17.37 units while home teams are in the red with 7.82 units lost.

This season is on track to be the most profitable in the 20 years we’ve monitored this system.

Catching Up With Playoff Team Betting

You could easily, and some do, look at the MLB playoff odds and make a fairly rational decision to back those teams the rest of the way despite not being aware of the price you’ll pay, especially at home, to back baseball elite.

Right now the Los Angeles Dodgers (+310), Philadelphia Phillies (+500), New York Yankees (+500), Baltimore Orioles (+750), and Houston Astros (+1100) are the favorites to win the World Series.

Let’s put these MLB teams in the 2024 blender to see how much profit has been produced. The numbers have shown us that profit and reliability are two separate things. Combined these teams own a 344-253 (.576) record but that has only been good enough to squeeze out a +2.30 profit.

These clubs can be leaned on to give bettors more winners than losers but are barely profitable in the long run. They’ll have their moments when they appear unbeatable.

Last week, these five were 20-12 (+4.83 units), but if we pull back the curtain further, we’ll reveal that was just a microcosm of success. Since May 22nd, the power five were 193-161 (.545), digging our bankroll into a 13.37-unit hole.

However, we offer a ladder out of the abyss by suggesting putting your money behind the elite when their numbers are between -115 and +140. This season that filter has produced 29.18 units with a record of 98-74 (.570).

Again, road team betting was the most profitable under this umbrella with 24.50 units won behind a record of 76-56 (.576). Home teams are 22-18 (+4.68). Using these tools should be able to push you over the finish line when making your MLB predictions the rest of the way.

How To Attack Brand New Pitchers

Down the stretch, the distance between the contenders, pretenders, and the teams that don’t bother to pretend becomes larger by the day. Teams out of the race will prepare for the 2025 MLB season by bringing up never-seen-before talent from their system to get a taste of Major League Baseball.

This is a headache for bettors because not only are we dealing with starters most have never seen pitch but the moneylines and betting patterns never find a consistency that tells us when we should make a move on a number.

We break down the numbers to conclude our August 14th weekly home/road report. This season, betting on pitchers with zero innings thrown would produce a record of 169-164 (+10.51 units). We know this doesn’t help us because, in April, we get match-ups that will pad these numbers with every team trotting out starters who have yet to throw a pitch.

We eliminated this by taking April off the calendar to find that betting on band new starters has given our bankroll 3.81 units with a record of 58-64 with home teams in this spot being the smarter wager with a 34-28 record (+6.28 units).

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