MLB: Favorite / Underdog Report For July 23rd
Underdogs Turned a Profit Third Straight Week, 14.43 Units With a 106-122 Record

This week’s overview shows that plus-money bettors are making up some ground on their season losses, now down 28.01 units in 2024 behind an overall record of 643-862 (.427).
Last week, underdog bettors added 3.05 units to their bankroll with a 28-30 record, while favorites continue to eat at bankrolls with another 6.35 units lost despite a winning record (30-28).
We’re in the stretch run so we have just a few months to build that bankroll as we keep an eye on the MLB scoreboard heading toward the postseason. Let’s start our favorite/underdog report for July 23rd by looking back at the week that was.
Home Underdogs Shine
Bettors tend in every sport to look for home underdogs. If that describes your technique, last week was one of your best of 2024.
Usually, home dog bettors are looking to turn a profit without expecting a winning record, but last week home dogs were 12-8 (60%), handing the public 6.58 units of profit. It marked the second straight week that home dogs have been profitable with a 25-23 record (+7.32 units) since July 9th. In 2024, home underdogs are 236-295 (.444) -2.79 units.
Not a great record but it beats betting home favorites who are 564-405 (.582), but -26.06 units in the red. Before you start to think about how much betting home underdogs makes sense, we’d like to point out that since 2021, home underdogs are 1400-1901 (.424) -120.14 units.
The Colorado Rockies led the home underdog parade last week with a 3-1 mark (+2.97), followed by the Washington Nationals (2-0, +212) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (2-1, +180). This season, the Detroit Tigers are tops in the home dog role with an 11-7 mark (+5.60 units), closely followed by the Chicago Cubs (10-6, +5.44) and the Colorado Rockies (22-26, +4.98).
With the good comes the bad. If we eliminated the Chicago White Sox (12-32, -12.21), Toronto Blue Jays (2-10, -7.69), and Arizona Diamondbacks (4-11, -6.89 units), home underdogs would be 218-242 (.474) +24.10 units. These numbers should give you a head start on your free MLB picks for today.
Does Power Equal Winning Tickets
We get asked about various handicapping techniques and most make sense when speaking from a win/loss standpoint, although we know that the monster in the room is always the moneyline.
We continue our search for the trends that will give us consistent winners over the Summer and today we examine the MLB home run leaders and their significance on our bankroll.
This season, the Baltimore Orioles (157), New York Yankees (146), Los Angeles Dodgers (139), Oakland Athletics (127), and the New York Mets (126) are tops in homers. In 2024, these five teams are 271-232 (.539) good for 3.95 units.
Not bad but how many teams deep into the home run list can we go and still add to our bankroll? The Philadelphia Phillies are sixth with 123 homers followed by the Minnesota Twins with 123.
We can only add the Phillies (+5.74) because the Twins have lost 2.02 units. That makes our overall record a more impressive 334-269 (.554) +9.68 units.
Giving this trend more juice, we looked at those six teams on the road because that’s where their moneyline will be diluted enough to be in the range of bankroll friendly with a record of 154-139 (.526), profiting 10.49 units.
To give proper contrast, those six are an incredible 177-127 at home (.582) but not good enough to push bettors out of the red with 0.17 units lost.
We conclude our July 23rd weekly favorite/underdog report with another history lesson.
The Lessons That History Teaches
We know what happened a few years ago has very little to do with what will happen throughout the current season but it is fun to go down a historical rabbit hole to see what has worked over a long period.
Let’s analyze the last five years to reveal ways bettors could have made money in that span. It appears betting on certain teams has been the key to long-term success. Since 2020, the Baltimore Orioles (+37.87), Seattle Mariners (+37.30), Detroit Tigers (+23.36), Tampa Bay Rays (+22.05), and the Los Angeles Dodgers have led the way to combine for almost 133 units of profit behind a record of 1753-1471 (.544).
The best part is these five teams are 273-230 (-2.83 units) in 2024, meaning bettors could be in for a massive second half considering these teams have been profitable every season since 2020. We end today’s report by analyzing which numbers have been the most profitable and nothing comes close to betting teams when getting between +160 and +180.
The overall record isn’t great (412-610) but that plus money grouping has produced 85.50 units since 2020 (+14.78 in 2024). Sometimes it’s the numbers we should be betting on instead of the teams. All the best with your MLB picks and parlays this week.
For MLB betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
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