MLB: Favorites / Underdogs Report for July 9th
Underdogs Smashed Books Last Week With 9.00 Units Won Overall
It’s incredible how good the oddsmakers are. In 2024, betting favorites (784-577, .576) have cost the betting public 31.01 units banked on a one-unit wager, while underdogs have taken -34.84 units from our bankroll while winning just 42.4% of the time.
Betting favorites gives you the better team and a higher win percentage, but you’ll pay a price over time. Underdogs promise a little extra with a win but a low chance of consistently cashing out. Welcome to baseball-only wagering.
However, there is some hope as we break down betting patterns over the previous seven days to put you on the right track for the upcoming week. Baseball is all about streaks and current form and we have you covered. Here’s your MLB favorites/underdog report for July 9th.
Underdogs Bounce Back With a Massive Week
It’s been a rough few weeks for bettors looking for underdogs, but last week gave the public some relief with nine units won behind a 48-52 record. Unfortunately, it’s putting a small Band-Aid on the season-long bleeding of our bankroll.
The win broke a run of five straight weeks where the dogs failed to turn a profit with a record of 186-281 (.398) -41.04 units. If underdogs had a good week, that should mean that road teams followed suit and that’s exactly what happened. With a record of 55-45, road teams were on fire with 14.45 units won while home teams lost 15.20 units.
That was the first road team profit in six weeks, taking 54.44 units away from bettors behind a record of 245-313 (.439). To tie it all together, road underdogs were 30-27 (+13.18) while home dogs were 18-25 (-4.17). That broke another six-week losing run where road dogs were 108-188 (.365, -45.09 units).
The Detroit Tigers led the way last week with a 5-2 record (+4.18), followed by the Boston Red Sox at 5-1 (+3.46) and the Cincinnati Reds who were 4-3 but produced 2.65 units of profit behind winners as a dog.
Unfortunately, it wasn’t all good news for every team with the Los Angeles Angels (1-6, -4.64), New York Yankees (1-5, -4.41), and the Kansas City Royals (2-4, -2.37) doing their best to continue previous weeks MLB results.
Underdogs Winning Mean Bettors Start Losing
It’s been a good run over the public the last few weeks with a 170-111 (.605) record that produced 16.62 but that’s because the public likes to put their money behind favorites. With dogs getting a measure of revenge this week, the public was only 52-44 (-2.49 units).
This is measured by which teams get more than 50.1% of the dollars wagered. The public saw the most damage to their bankroll by betting teams that took in between 80-89.9% of the money (10-12, -4.57). The best were teams getting at least 90% with a 17-11 record (+1.32).
That’s not a surprise because when teams get that much support we’re usually looking at clubs that are much better than their opposition but laying a large moneyline which is why we see 61% winners but a small profit.
The Boston Red Sox were a perfect 3-0 (+2.09) when getting the majority of the money this week followed by the Oakland Athletics (2-0, +1.87) and the Houston Astros (4-2, +1.83). The New York Yankees (1-5, -4.41), Atlanta Braves (1-3, -2.50), and the Cincinnati Reds (1-3, -2.37) were a combined 3-11 (-9.28) when getting the public’s trust over the previous seven days, proving that the teams with the best MLB playoff odds are not always the smartest wagers.
Betting Proven Teams Is Best Plan of Attack
We already know that favorites have won 58% of the games this season but that’s not going to be good enough to turn a profit as is the case in most years. Favorites have not turned an overall profit since 2020 (542-353, +8.47).
That’s a 61% win percentage, to give you an idea of how much you’d have to win to sit in the black. Since 2021, favorites have slid deep into the red with 241.73 units lost even though favorites won 59% of the games. Home/road splits are separated by just 0.62 units in 2024.
Home teams are 719-634 (.531, -32.09) while road teams are -32.71 units. We suggest continuing to follow the Cleveland Guardians (+16.58), Baltimore Orioles (+11.74), and the Milwaukee Brewers (+10.36) who have combined for 38.67 units won in 2024 behind a record of 166-104 (.615). Over the last three seasons, those three organizations have been incredibly consistent with 86.60 units won, winning 56.1% of their games.
Our updated MLB power rankings have the Philadelphia Phillies (58-32) at the top followed by the Baltimore Orioles (57-33), Los Angeles Dodgers (55-36), New York Yankees (55-37) and the Cleveland Guardians (56-33). That does it for our July 9th MLB weekly favorite/underdog report, all the best with your wagers whis week.
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