MLB Home Run Derby Outright Betting Odds

Pete Alonso Looking to Repeat in Stacked Field

Even as many major sports leagues have struggled with keeping their All-Star-related festivities interesting, baseball has had the fortune of the annual MLB Home Run Derby being very appealing over the past few seasons. Pete Alonso dominated the event in 2019 and 2021 and will try to win a third-straight title against a very tough field. Alonso has taken outsized pride in the Derby since he entered the league and, in the midst of another very strong season for the first-place New York Mets, he’s the presumptive favorite.

Alonso has a tough opening-round matchup with division rival Ronald Acuña Jr. of the Atlanta Braves and he will also have to contend with Kyle Schwarber and Juan Soto, along with others… including Albert Pujols. Alonso is widely expected to be the Home Run Derby winner yet again, mostly thanks to how good his skill set is suited for this particular event but also due to his clear passion for the Derby itself.

Still, it should be another great event with a fascinating field. Let’s run through the candidates, their respective odds, and who is a good bet:

Pete Alonso: +175

It’s tough to bet against Alonso, especially when his Home Run Derby odds to win it all for the third-consecutive time provide such good value. There’s enough variability in an event like the Derby for Pete too, understandably, not be minus-money but, at +175, you can get great odds by taking the guy who has mastered the Derby format even though he first has to get through Acuña Jr.

Even though his preferred pitcher, Dave Jauss, works for the Washington Nationals organization now, he’ll be throwing to Alonso on Monday at Dodger Stadium which should help Pete significantly. One of the most important aspects of the Derby is the quality of the pitcher, particularly with the timed format. If a player isn’t getting good pitches, they don’t stand a chance. Alonso has a great rapport with Jauss who became famous last year for his consistent feeds. There’s a reason Alonso is going for a three-Pete.

Kyle Schwarber: +300

Schwarber is an interesting option at +300 and his chances are definitely helped by the fact that he is going up against Albert Pujols in the first round, which should be a relatively easy matchup for him. He’s also leading the NL with 29 home runs. While Schwarber’s power is undeniable, he hasn’t been in the MLB Home Run Derby since 2018 and his streakiness at the plate could work in his favor or could hurt him. He’s kind of a wild card.

Juan Soto: +550

Soto made his first Derby appearance last year and was just edged out by Alonso in a hard-fought second-round matchup. His patient and balanced approach at the plate during games might throw you off from taking him in this kind of setting but his all-fields power ability could help him at a place like Dodger Stadium. He has an underrated tough first-round opponent in José Ramírez and is in Schwarber’s part of the bracket, though, so the strength of schedule could hurt him. Still, at +550, Soto is a great value considering how good he was in 2021.

Ronald Acuña Jr.: +650

Acuña Jr. is in the Derby for the first time since 2019 when he, like Soto, lost to Alonso by a single home run in the second round. He’ll be back for revenge this time around against Alonso. Acuña Jr. isn’t having a particularly great season in terms of power so far but he is one of the most powerful players in baseball so he definitely has a shot to take down the two-time defending champ. The speed of the Derby format could hurt Acuña Jr. because his swing and follow-through can be a little long.

Julio Rodríguez: +800

If you want a high-value flier pick, Rodríguez is the way to go. His odds have jumped from +900 to +800 in the last day alone and he has a favorable opening-round matchup in Corey Seager. Rodríguez has tons of power and has been a major factor in the Seattle Mariners’ (still-active) 14-game winning streak. As with any new Derby participant, though, it’s tough to tell how he’ll fare in a situation so different from in-game action. Based on tools and ability, he is worth a bet at +800.

Corey Seager (+1000), José Ramírez (+1600), Albert Pujols (+2500)

Of this group of longshots, Ramírez is probably the best bet despite being the only one of the three who has never been in the MLB Home Run Derby before. But, none of them are really worth putting too much faith in because of how good the rest of the field is. It’ll be cool to see Pujols get another bite at the apple during his final MLB season but his best days are long behind him.

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