MLB: How Do Umpires Effect Totals? 

We Analyzed 2024 Umpire Walk and Strikeout Rates; Are We Cashing More?

We often forget about the impact that officials in all sports can make on the outcome of wagers; but we also often forget how much of a role they play when betting totals. Our July 4th umpire over/under report has uncovered a few strong trends you should add to your handicapping arsenal.

We took the top five umpires in strikeout rate and top three in walk rates to see if the numbers back up our suspicion because it’s sensible to think that a higher K rate should result in more unders while a higher walk rate could lead to more overs. We discover that MLB moneylines may not be the best way to attack baseball betting this Summer.

Mackay, Tosi, and Clemons Lead the Strikeout Parade

Before we get into it, we would like to direct you to a site called Swish Analytics to get daily umpiring information. We get asked about umpire sources more than just about any other statistic. This site will give you the number for all umpires for that day.

Keep in mind that umpires move counterclockwise so whoever was the first base umpire the night before will be the home plate umpire the next night in most cases. With a new series, most umpire sites will have that information 1 to 3 hours before the first pitch.

We will only deal with umpires who have at least 40 games behind home plate and have worked in 2024. Alex MacKay has a strikeout rate of 24% in his career to lead all umpires. That hasn’t equated to unders this season (3-3-2) but over his three-year career, the under is 17-13-5 (+2.71 units). Behind Mackay are Alex Tosi (23.7%) in 92 games and Paul Clemons with 40 behind home plate.

They each have a strikeout rate of 23.7%. The under is 8-2 this season when Tosi is behind home plate and 26-15 (+8.70) over the last two seasons. With Clemons, the under is 6-7-1 (-1.44 units). Jeramie Rehak is in the fourth spot with a 23.6% K rate in 166 games followed by Roberto Ortiz (23.4%) in 168 games. The under is 6-4-1 on 2024 with Rehak calling balls and strikes and 8-4-1 when Ortiz is behind home plate.

If we combined all five of these umpires the under is 31-20 (+8.52 units) in 2024 and 247-203 (.549) +24.41 units since 2016. As we can see there is a clear advantage for under bettors with umpires having a high strikeout rate.

Over Trends Stronger With Higher Walk Rates

We’re a little cheap so we didn’t pay for enough information to give us the top five umpires with large walk rates but we got three before the paywall showed up! Alfonzo Marquez (5-8 over record) and Mark Wegner (4-3) have a walk rate of 9% followed by Lance Barksdale (5-4) at 8.8%.

In 2024 these three have combined for an over record of 14-15 (-1.98 units) but if we dig deeper, when any of these umpires were behind home plate the over is 248-220 (.540), producing a profit of 21.32 units. Marquez has been the least profitable of the trio in 2024 but has been the third most profitable over umpire over the last six seasons with a 102-76 record for 19.13 units.

That means we should anticipate a sold run of over-winners with the 25-year veteran in the second half of the season. We conclude our July 4th umpire over/under report with a few overall numbers to aid your MLB picks and parlays.

Fletcher, Wendelstedt Crushing Bookmakers

Veteran umpire Hunter Wendelstedt is the only umpire in the Majors to produce double-digit wins with an 11-3 record to the under (+7.37 units). This has been a shocking turnaround after being known as an over umpire over the last two seasons with a 33-20 record. Wendelstadt precedes Ryan Addition who is 9-2 to the under (+6.37) followed by Scott Barry with a 7-1-1 record (+5.48).

Addition was 16-9 to the over last year while Barry continues a a 2-year under run of 14-3-2 with 9.90 units of profit. On the other side, Andy Fletcher is 8-1-1 to the over in 2024 (+6.42 units), followed by Adrian Johnson (9-3-1, +5.49) and Nick Mahrley (8-2, +5.41). Fletcher is 24-14-3 (+7.72) over the previous two seasons, while Johnson continues his reputation as an over umpire with a 57-37 record since 2021 (+15.72).

Mahrley is 36-20 (+12.97 units) to the over since 2020. That does it for your July 4th umpire over/under report, all the best with your wagers this week.

For MLB betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.


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