MLB: July 30th Weekly Favorite / Dog ReportĀ 

Underdogs Smashed Bookmakers Last Week With 10.28 Units WonĀ 

Underdogs continue to dominate betting in July after a 47-48 week that produced 10.28 units of profit. Since July 2nd, underdogs are 161-177 (+27.54 units).

Dogs continue to chip away at a 17.70 deficit in 2024 (690-910). Last week, the San Diego Padres led the way with a 5-1 (+4.38 units) record, followed by the Miami Marlins at 4-2 (+4.30) and the New York Mets, at 5-2 (+3.48).

We start our July 30th weekly favorite/dog report by examining how well the teams that have the lowest MLB World Series odds are doing against the moneyline.

Is It As Easy As Betting On World Series Hopefuls?

There are plenty of examples when we think we may be making baseball wagering more difficult than it has to be.

Could it be that betting on the best clubs in Major League Baseball to start the season leads to a big bankroll at the end of the year? Letā€™s test that theory out.

Itā€™s fair to say that in March we could make a case for the Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.08), Philadelphia Phillies +3.14), New York Yankees (+5.44), Baltimore Orioles (+5.45), and the Atlanta Braves (-11.96) as the top five teams in baseball with the Houston Astros (-8.38) in the sixth spot.

If you had wagered on each of these teams from game one through today, you would be in the hole of 2.01 units. Thatā€™s the bad news, the good MLB news is your record would be 310-223 (.582).

Thatā€™s a decent win percentage and with that must come a sweet spot where we can rely on the best teams to cash some tickets without having to lay -200+ and there is.

  • As an underdog, the fab five are a combined 49-45 (+9.72 units). Most of their losses have come as a favorite with almost 12.00 units lost.

Unfortunately, waiting for an underdog opportunity allows us one bet every day and a half. Letā€™s look inside the numbers to see where the public is getting beat and where we find some success.

The public was hammered when betting these teams as a favorite between -130 to -155 (57-55, -14.49), but an incredible 52-34 (.605) +13.12 units when the number was between -101 and -120.

Again, not many betting opportunities but it sure beats being in the red like so many are this time of year.

That Was Then, This Is Now

We know MLB playoff odds have changed since March 28th and we already looked at the five MLB teams who were favored to win the World Series to begin the season, but what about right now? As we speak, there are a few changes to the top five.

Letā€™s examine how these teams have done after the trade deadline in previous seasons to give us a sense of what will hopefully happen in 2024.

After August 1st, these five teams combined for a 166-114 (.593) record, good for 12.67 units. When the moneyline settled between -115 and +130, these teams combined for a 47-28 (.627) record, +20.96 units.

That filter continues to thrive in 2024 with these clubs combining for 22.66 units of profit behind a record of 138-122.

Combined weā€™re looking at a profit of 40.22 units behind a record of 213-181ā€”something to keep your eye on when figuring out your MLB best bets today or down the stretch.

Overs Smash Bookmakers Again

  • Last week, the over cashed in almost 61% of the games (+17.48 units), adding to an incredible month that saw 23.13 units won if bettors blindly bet the over in every game (182-149).

Leading the way in July were the Toronto Blue Jays at 19-5 to the over (+12.95), followed by the Arizona Diamondbacks (16-6, +9.58), Miami Marlins (15-5-2, +8.81 units, Detroit Tigers (15-8-1, +6.55 units, and the Minnesota Twins (14-7, +6.21).

Overall, the Baltimore Orioles are the top over team in MLB with 14.86 units won (58-39-10). Detroit is second with a 60-46 record, followed by the Miami Marlins (58-45-3) and the New York Yankees (58-45-5).

That concludes our July 30th weekly favorites/underdogs report with some totals sprinkled in, we wish you the best with your wagers this week.

For MLB betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.


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