MLB Over and Under: Early Unders Fade to Overs In Summer

There was a lot of unknown about how the season would go this year with the labor strike and a shortened preseason. Which teams would come out ready to go? Would it help the pitchers or hitters? Now that we are nearing mid-season, we have a much better idea of how the baseball season is shaping up and we can say for certain that betting the MLB over and under is a great way to bank some serious cash.

If you were betting MLB totals early in the season and we’re betting under across the board, you were rolling in the dough throughout April. In fact, $100 per game bettors who were betting on the under in every game through April 29 were up a whopping $4,250. That’s a large chunk of change, and many of the games were going far below the posted total. There was an abundance of 1-0 and 2-1 type games, which affected the MLB total standings.

What led to the decreased scoring in the first few weeks of the season? Some thought it was the shortened offseason that had the hitters timing off compared to other seasons. There are others who suggested that Major League Baseball had once again changed to a different baseball. They have done it before and it wouldn’t be much of a surprise if this baseball was unique again.

Does Summer vs Spring Make a Difference in Scoring?

The third reason suggested by some was the cooler weather was just suppressing runs. Bettors are a bit torn on this one. There is no doubt that cooler and damp weather tends to suppress scoring, but that isn’t unique to this season.

Remember, the season started one week late because of the labor strike in the offseason, so if anything the temperatures were a bit milder on the whole, at the start of the season this year compared to some other years.

While the under has done better than the over in the first month of the season in recent seasons, the split has never been as drastic as this season. Many different factors determine the best value when it comes to betting the MLB over and under.

Where’s the Value Now?

Finally, we need to remember that starting this year all baseball stadiums are using humidors for the baseballs. Before this year there were only ten parks that used the humidor. Some believe that humidors have led to the weather having a much larger effect on baseball.

For totals bettors, it couldn’t get any easier right? All you have to do is bet the under across the board for the season and you could get rich. It’s never that easy! The oddsmakers and the betting marketplace adjusted in a big way.

By May, it became commonplace for a contest with two subpar starting pitchers to have totals as low as 7 or 7.5. The oddsmakers would set the number low and public bettors still couldn’t get enough of the under. In the stock market, they would call it a crowded trade. In the same way, if it seems too easy and looks too obvious in the sports betting market, you should be cautious, knowing this will change the MLB total wins odds.

Remember how $100 per game bettors were up $4,250 through about three weeks of the season? Fast forward to June when most teams are done with about 55 games of the season, and now we can take a more thorough look at where the value lies with the MLB over and under odds.

There’s a Pile of Money Somewhere, Let’s Find it

Where would those $100 per game bettors be now if they had just kept betting the under every game? They would now be down $1,370 on the season. The under has hit 51.5% for the season, but as we all know that juice is the great equalizer. If you can’t win more than 52.38% of the time, you are losing money.

We’ve seen the betting markets flip completely of late. Most of the games are getting steamed to the upside after getting set at a lower number. The weather is warming up and the balls are flying much better. Some swear that the “magic baseball” from a couple of years ago is back.

The weather has warmed up again and that has certainly helped with the over trend. We’ve seen quite a few games where the winds blowing out and with the warm weather – has led to an increased amount of home runs.

A lot of people involved with baseball believe that the specific baseball they are using this season is just more affected by the temperature and barometric pressures. Of course, the fact that the betting markets adjusted so hard and there was a long period of time where the totals got so low had quite a bit to do with the overrun as well.

At the End of the Day, Have Fun Betting Over and Unders

What are the biggest takeaways here? First, playing it safe at the very beginning of the season to see what changes have been made isn’t a terrible idea. Baseball is a long grind, you don’t have to fire on everything right away. Second, you have to be willing to adjust.

Follow the trends and pay close attention to the betting markets. You can ride trends when betting on baseball, but those winning trends will not likely last an entire season. Adjustments will be made by both the oddsmakers and the players on the field. Are you willing to adjust with them?