MLB Player Props: Who Has a Chance to Hit Their Mark?

The Battle Lines are Drawn and MLB Player Prop Positioning is Heating Up

MLB player props bets is a great way to experience the ups and downs of a long baseball season. You ride out a player’s slumps and cheer on through the hot streaks, or vice versa if you took the under. Often there is a chance to relax down the stretch as the stat is on target, or there can be some down-to-the-wire drama.

Let’s take a look at some players who are crushing the preseason expectations, those right on target, and those with some work to do:

Home Runs

Easy Money: Aaron Judge, Yankees RF – Judge is already halfway, essentially, to his preseason expectation of 36.5 home runs, and he’s showing no sign of slowing down. The gargantuan slugger has nine homers in his last 20 games. One slight concern lies in the fact that Judge has tailed off in the second half of some past seasons.

Corey Seager, Rangers SS – Another blast Tuesday, his third in four games, gives Seager 11 on the year. Mindful of his injury history and lack of truly big power years since he hit 26 as a rookie, the oddsmakers had him down for just 24.5, so he’s well on his way. Seager also loves his new home ballpark; he’s slugged nine homers in just 23 games there.

Nail-biters: Pete Alonso, Mets 1B – The Polar Bear, who leads the National League in RBIs, has 13 home runs through his first 51 games. That puts him on pace for about 41.3 if he stays in the lineup on a consistent basis. The MLB player prop bets had him pegged for 41.5 dingers, so the two-time Home Run Derby champ is right on target.

Bryce Harper, Phillies RF/DH: An elbow issue is preventing him from throwing, but the installation of the DH in the National League has saved Harper’s season at the plate. The two-time MVP has hit all but one of his 10 blasts while in that role, putting him on pace for about 33 homers at his current game-playing pace. That puts him just a shade under his projected over/under the figure of 34.5.

Good luck: Joey Gallo, Yankees LF: Gallo finished last year with 38 homers between Texas and the Yankees and was ticketed for 39.5 in 2022 when MLB player props odds came out. He has just five so far and all came in a 15-game span between April and May. Since returning from the COVID list last week, he is 4-for-21 with a walk, eight strikeouts, and no homers. Not even close to the kind of hot stretch that would satisfy those that took the over on his home run total.

Marcus Semien, Rangers 2B: Seager’s fellow free-agent acquisition in Texas, Semien has disappointed at the plate, although he is showing some signs of heating up. After slugging 45 home runs a season ago with Toronto, he was slapped with a modest 31.5 target by the books, who must’ve known something. Semien’s first and only long ball came in his 44th game.

Runs Batted In

Easy Money: Trevor Story, Red Sox SS – After a slow start, Story had a scintillating stretch in late May in which he drove in 21 in only seven games, including seven in one game. That leaves him on pace for close to 120 RBI, comfortably ahead of the 81.5 oddsmakers put next to his name in April. The surge coincided roughly with his move from the top of the order to the middle, usually the fifth or sixth spot. That leaves him nestled in the center of one of the game’s top lineups that will produce plenty of big games this summer at Fenway.

Jose Ramirez, Indians 3B – The MLB leader with 51 RBI, essentially half of his preseason 102.5 expectation. With a cold spell or an injury, there could be some drama with this one, but Ramirez’s consistency makes it a pretty safe bet. He has 388 RBI in 540 games since the start of the 2018 season, a rate that would give him 116.4 in a full season.

Nail-biters: Josh Bell, Nationals 1B – Washington is a last-place team but it can score runs from time to time, and Bell is usually in the middle of it. His 28 RBI puts him on pace for around 90, just a fraction off the 93.5-RBI prediction the oddsmakers had in line. Bell once drove in 116 runs for a pretty bad Pittsburgh team. He’ll continue to produce behind Juan Soto.

Mike Trout, Angels CF – Trout has topped the 100-RBI mark three times and was pegged to finish just below it at 98.5 when MLB betting heated up before the season. He entered Thursday with 28, which sets him on course to fall short by a little bit. There could be some tense moments for those who took action on Trout. Those that took the over are likely sweating through his current slump (4-for-25, two RBIs in the last six games).

Good luck: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays 1B – A common name atop most lists on preseason MLB player props bets, Guerrero will be hard-pressed to come close to matching last season’s explosive campaign. He was ticketed for 114.5 RBI, second-most on the board behind Yordan Alvarez’s 118.5, but isn’t even first on his own team with only 24. He had driven in 45 at this same point last year.

Matt Olson, Braves 1B: After tying Guerrero for sixth in the majors with 111 RBI last year, Olson was expected to make a similar run. Oddsmakers had him over/under at 109.5, but he drove in just two runs in the first 14 games. A two-run homer and a two-run double in Tuesday’s loss at Arizona boosted Olson up to 21 RBI, on pace for about 68.

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