MLB Report: It’s That Time Of Year To Pay Attention To Weather
Think Twice: How Weather Impacts Betting Decisions
Typically, a handicapper’s day will focus on starting pitching, MLB stats leaders, or an early injury report that may clue us into potential omissions from that night’s lineup. That’s a solid start, but professionals will always start with weather and MLB umpires. Two elements that can have an immediate impact on a game before one pitch is thrown. Today, we’re diving deeper into weather patterns and how they impact the difference between your daily card turning a profit or finishing in the red.
Home Teams Heat Up With The Weather
The goal is to cash your June 18th MLB Prop Bets, straight bets, or totals. To do that consistently, you have to think like a professional, and we’ll do that by identifying significant weather patterns. We won’t have to deal with cold temperatures until October, but there have been eight games played with average temperatures between 30-39 degrees, with the home team winning five times, and 50 games with the temps between 40-49, with each team winning 25 times each (visitors +3.22 units). Road teams are 117-118 (+4.28 units) when temperatures fall between 50-59.
So far, we have established that road teams have had the betting advantage when the games are cooler. Combined home teams are just 148-145 with temps between 30-59 degrees. That continues a trend over the last three seasons, with home team bettors losing 57.36 units behind a record of 537-499 (.518). The last time home teams turned a profit at home in colder weather was 2021 (+0.91 units). You would have to go back to 2019 to see a significant profit when home teams were 161-118 (.577) +10.20 units. Let’s move on to what we’ll face for the rest of the season, and that’s scoring hot temps, a change that has given the home team a massive boost to begin the Summer months in 2024. It’s still not enough to turn a profit, but teams playing in familiar surroundings are 289-241 (.545) with temperatures between 70-79 degrees and 84-70 (.546) when the thermometer is between 80-89.
Then comes what we’ve all been waiting for. What happens when we’re staring at 90+ degrees? There’s nothing significant to report this season with a perfect split of 30 games, but history tells us that will bump up to advantage the home team before long. Since 2019, home clubs are 1021-822 (.554) when the temperature rises to 85 or more (+48.20 units). With this being said, who are the teams to focus on as we move through the MLB schedule 2024? The Tampa Bay Rays lead the list with an 81-34 mark (+19.36) since 2019, followed by the Kansas City Royals at 48-38 (+17.72) and the Atlanta Braves at 55-24 (+9.69).
When Humidity Rises, So Should Your Home Team Wagers
Our June 18th MLB prop bets card should be lathered with teams and players who smash the ball in warmer temps, but let’s not forget our friend humidity and its effect on our bankroll. Using the same 85-degree plus filter, let’s add some heavy air to the equation and spin that wheel to see what we come up with. Once again, we see a massive advantage over the home team. Since 2019, home teams playing in 55% humidity or more are 381-264 (.591), but let’s break that down. 55% to 59% humidity shows home teams at 111-74 (.600) and 189-141 (.573) between 60%-69%. Then, it starts to get sticky. 70%-79% presents our biggest betting advantage, with home teams cashing out 63% of the time (79-47).
Thank goodness for the ability to close roofs because there were just four games over the last five years that played in humidity above 80% with the temperature above 85 (2-2). We know what you’re asking, how does humidity affect totals? As in most cases, it’s not what we think because bookmakers make the adjustments. Throwing temperature out of our filter, games that have an average humidity of 75% or more favor the under with the under 1183-1119 (.514). Not enough to blindly bet the under but enough that should inspire bettors to think about how they approach totals this Summer.
Wind Speed Isn’t The Factor You Think It Is
We use wind speed and direction when betting totals a lot because a significant wind speed blowing out at Wrigley could signal a long day for pitchers, although that theory isn’t as sound as some think because the bookmakers are always making adjustments which is why we’re seeing 12’s in the Dodgers, Rockies series and we saw 10.5-11 when the Pirates were in Coors last weekend. Before getting into it, know that wind speed is measured as an average every hour. When a weather report says, the wind will be blowing out at 12 miles per hour, that only means that wind speeds will average that number. Some think it means a constant gale wind straight out to the center.
The over is just 272-284 (.489) when an average wind speed of 10-15 mph is heading straight out to the center and 16-20 when the average wind speed goes above 15. That does change when the average wind direction is blowing out to all fields with the over 771-751 (.507). Wrigley Field is one of those parks where the public loves to check wind conditions but the numbers tell us that the over is just 41-40 when the wind is blowing out 10 MPH or more since 2019. These numbers should give bettors something to ponder when filling out your June 18th MLB Prop Bets card. All the best with your picks and parlays MLB.
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