MLB Stats Worth Adding To Your Daily Handicapping

We Analyze Key Pitching Numbers to Determine What Stats Mean to The Bettor

There used to be a small room off the sportsbook at the old Stardust hotel in Las Vegas that would be filled with printouts hanging on the walls by a thumbtack presenting every statistic imaginable to assist bettors, or so many thought, in making a more educated wager.

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The truth is, the room was there to confuse, giving the bettors more information than they could properly process. Lucky for us, we have more information today and a quicker way to access it than bettors had years ago.

Let’s analyze 2024 MLB pitching stats and pick out which path gives us an easier journey to being on the right side of the MLB scoreboard.

These Starters Have Produced a 54-11 Record In 2024

Bettors have enjoyed 83% winners when backing the Washing National’s Trevor Williams (9-2, +11.33 units), Tanner Bibee (11-2, +7.60) of the Cleveland Guardians, Luis Gil (12-2, 7.560 with the New York Yankees, Ranger Suarez (12-1, +7.44) of the Philadelphia Phillies, and the Pittsburgh Pirates’ Mitch Keller (10-4, +7.09).

The question is, are there statistical bonds between each of these starters or is every situation unique? Let’s start with Williams (5-0, 2.22) who has been terrific this MLB season, mostly because he has cut down on the long ball, but his success has also come from run support.

When we put a filter on pitchers receiving four runs or more of support, Williams is a perfect 6-0 for bettors (+8.92) but he is joined by Bibee (+7.60) who has received at least four runs in every start, and Gil (+6.51 units) That’s a combined 28-4 (.875) with a profit of 23.03 units.

If you consider betting on every team averaging above 4.40 runs per game, you would be 507-423 (.545) +5.68 units). The conclusion is the run support theory is strong but when you add the best pitchers in the game to it, you giving your MLB predictions today a massive advantage.

ERA Not What You Think It Is

We thought this was going to be an easy breakdown because common sense will tell you that the lower the ERA of the starter the better chance you have of winning the game. What we found out was that’s just not true.

We narrowed it down to a fairly wide range to make sure we had a good sample size while giving bettors enough MLB games to bet if you choose to add starters ERA to your handicapping arsenal. Starters with an ERA of 3.90 to 5.35 are 203-193 (.513) this season but that’s enough to turn a profit of 4.83 units.

To add to it, favorites with this filter are an incredible +6.33 this season with home favorites 75-41 (+10.15). You may say ‘how can this be’ but the reasoning is simple. Most nights, you’ll be getting a fair price with the perception being that you’ll be taking the lesser of the two starters, especially when that starter is at home.

This is a more profitable range than betting on starters who bring in an ERA between 2.00 and 3.50 (-17.57). Bibee is a perfect 6-0 using this filter with Jordan Montgomery (Texas Rangers) at 4-0 and Minnesota Twins Chris Paddock at 4-0.

Using ERA in this manner will allow bettors to pair down their card faster while leaving MLB teams that won’t require a -200 wager to get a quality starter. Let’s end it with one more 2024 MLB pitching stat that’s producing winners.

Walks Will Take Your Money!

We all know that walks lead to runs so it’s important to be on a starter that has a low walk rate. We’ve narrowed it down to what seems like an impossible percentage to find using 10% to 12% as our filters. Surprisingly, this minuscule difference has given bettors a profit of 7.67 units in 2024 while giving us about four plays a day.

If you don’t know, a walk rate is measured by the percentage of batters who earn a walk per 100 at-bats. If we try to bump it up to 13%-15% the numbers fall dramatically with 13.59 units lost behind a 38-51 record.

We’ll get back to our sweet spot of 10%-12% where we’ve enjoyed a profit of 7.67 units with a 170-159 record, indicating that we’re getting our share of underdogs.

To close, we have found massive profits by simply using a few 2024 MLB pitching stats, but it’s extremely important to monitor recent form because with baseball being a marathon there will be dips that you’ll want to avoid. Remember, relying on MLB stat leaders to push you through the season isn’t enough because numbers will only tell you where you’ve been and not where you’re going.

For MLB betting news, MLB odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.


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