MLB Tuesday Recap Analysis: Losses by Massive Favorites Bury Public

Book Wins Four Biggest Decisions With Tigers, Red Sox, Reds, and Nationals

Our MLB Tuesday recap reveals one of the biggest nights for our monitored sportsbooks with 12 of the 15 games going the way of the books. Based on moneyline money wagered, the books won 1287 units, using a flat $100 wager to represent each game where the money wagered percentage was higher.

So far in 2023, sportsbooks are still down 1070 units (218-133 public record) but that deficit has been cut into over the last three days (players -649 units) as the numbers get sharper. Let’s continue our MLB Tuesday recap by breaking down the biggest winners and losers from both sides of the counter.

Losses by Massive Favorites Bury Public

We don’t have the exact numbers, but you can bet that MLB parlays today and straight wagers were crushed when four of the seven teams favored by -175 or more lost. That includes two -210 favorites (Mets and Guardians) ripping cash from the public’s hand. 97% of the public moneyline money was on the Milwaukee Brewers, 91% on the Baltimore Orioles, 85% bet on the Texas Rangers, and 81% backing the New York Mets.

All four turned out to be losers. The heaviest bet game was the New York Yankees and Minnesota Twins. The Twinkies had not taken a series from the New York Yankees since 2001, Joe Ryan made sure that streak would be broken after winning his league-leading fifth game after throwing seven innings while allowing just one earned run in the Twins’ 6-2 victory.

With it being 22 years since the Twins took a series from the Bombers, you would think that the public would be all over the Yankees, but they were sharp and took the Twins (-127) over Nasty Nestor in one of the few bright spots for bettors.

Tuesday’s Run-Line Results Produce More Profit for Book

We don’t talk about run-lines much, but last night’s results compelled us to bring it up. The books won 11 of the 15 decisions, good for another 691 units of profit for the bad guys. Their biggest win was on the Washington Nationals (+1.5, -120) who shut out the New York Mets (-210), 5-0.

Nat’s starter Josiah Gray came into the game a loser of four straight, but that was a bit deceiving considering Gray was given five runs of total support in those starts. The New York native was given five runs, and the right-hander made it stand up with six innings of four-hit ball. Gray has now given up four runs in his last four starts.

This a case of MLB stats not telling the complete story. 93% of the run-line money was on the Mets. The Boston Red Sox hung on for an 8-6 win at Camden Yards. It was the second biggest run-line win for the books after 93% of the money flowed in on Baltimore (-1.5, +127). Bettors ripped up their tickets early after the Sox put up seven runs in the first three innings to take a 7-0 lead.

Starter Corey Kluber (1-4) found his form to give Boston six strong innings of five-hit ball. It was the 27-year-olds first win as a Red Sox after signing a free-agent deal in January. After last night’s results, the public is now 170-179 (-1053 units) betting $100 units on the run-line.

Run-Line Dogs Continue as Losing Wager

We thought we’d continue to give run-line betting some love with an update on the 2023 season overall and what teams are best to have on your ticket both this season and historically. After MLB Tuesday recap, taking the 1 ½ runs is costing the public dearly even though they’ve produced a winning record (189-168). If you would have bet a blind $100 on the dog, you would be down 3,019 units. That doesn’t mean bet the favorites who are 168-189, you’d still come out a loser of 208 units.

Like moneyline bets, this comes down to being smart with the number. Underdogs have done extremely well when the number is between -110 and -140. That guideline has given the public 978 units of profit behind a 63-69 record that proves plus money is king. It’s no surprise but the Tampa Bay Rays (17-7) lead all of baseball with 934 units won on the run line, followed by Chicago Cubs (14-8) +556, and the Cincinnati Reds (15-9) +433.

To wind down our MLB Tuesday recap, we thought it would be interesting to know who the best club against the run line has been over the last five seasons. That distinction goes to the Los Angeles Dodgers who are 307-263 (+3104 units), almost 1,000 units ahead of the Tampa Bay Rays (300-269) +2186, and the Cleveland Guardians (299-270) +1780. We wish you all the best with your selections, Wednesday.

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