MLB Weather: Key Factors to Keep in Mind

It might not be the first thing you look at when deciding to bet on a baseball game but, considering how many MLB teams play outdoors and how influential things like heat or wind can be on offensive production, MLB weather is incredibly important for betting purposes. To be sure, there are tons of factors that go into whether the over is the right move for a certain game or if one team is a surefire bet but the weather is one that can’t be forgotten.

So, let’s run through some of the more common weather effects in baseball that have a big effect on how you should address games, from certain stadiums to keep an eye on more general trends:

Summer Overs

Maybe the most by-the-book MLB weather effect is how early-season cold weather in northern cities depresses run totals and, as the calendar turns to May and June, the warmer air increases ball flight and spurs run scoring.

In March and April, colder weather tends to make the ball heavier so it doesn’t carry as far which results in lots of flyouts that may be home runs had they been hit two months later.

Part of this effect may also be that it takes hitters a little more time each season to get into a groove after MLB Spring Training but most of it is the weather. Also, note that teams with retractable roof stadiums — such as the Miami Marlins and Arizona Diamondbacks — may decide on keeping their roofs closed (or opening them up) as weather conditions change and that’s also something to keep in mind.

[tieindex]Wrigley’s Wind[/tie_index]

Wrigley’s Wind

Chicago is called the Windy City for a reason and, if you catch a Cubs game on the right night, you’ll see why. It typically hasn’t helped the Cubs’ MLB playoff odds much over the years but it certainly has led to memorable games, whether it’s ludicrously high-scoring games — a 23-22 win by the Phillies over the Cubs in 1979 stands out — or games where anything in the air gets pushed back far short of the outfield fences.

Because of Wrigley Field’s close proximity to Lake Michigan, Wrigley Field is especially prone to the swirling winds that Chicago is famous for. It works in both ways, though, and the direction of the wind (as well as the speed) can completely change how a game is played.

If it’s blowing out, then you can see Glenallen Hill hit a home run into the next zip code. If it’s blowing in, then you can see pop ups go from being over 2nd base to behind the visiting dugout on the 1st base side.

If you happen to catch a Cubs game where the wind is blowing out at over 20 MPH, then you almost have to take the over on principle. The same is true in reverse when the wind is blowing in at a high speed.

Rain Could be Good for The Under

A unique quirk of MLB weather is that it can actually affect the length of the game itself. While heavy rain or snow can certainly change how an NFL game is played, the NFL won’t limit games to 40 minutes due to adverse weather conditions. Of course, that isn’t true in baseball.

MLB rules state that a game becomes “official” when 4.5 innings are played (if the home team is winning) or when five innings are played (if the road team is winning).

Typically, this rule only comes into play when rain — or other weather conditions — gets so bad that the game cannot be resumed that day/night, usually after a lengthy delay. The betting angle here is that even if only half the game is played, full-game under bets still cash out.

Granted, it’s nearly impossible to predict from a pregame forecast if a game will be able to get through 4.5 or 5 to become official before entering a delay and then being called. But, the downside here is pretty low: If the game is postponed (or suspended), then your bet will push and it was like taking a free flier.

That’s not to mention how rain in a forecast tends to limit run production because it’s just hard to see the ball (as a batter) through the rain. It’s also not easy to grip the ball as a pitcher, to be sure, but the offensive downsides outweigh the defensive/pitching downsides.

Check On Humidity

Humidity might not be at the top of your mind when making bets, nor will it wind up factoring into the MLB divisional standings over the course of a long season, but it should be something to keep an eye on. The effect is simple: The higher the humidity, the denser the air and wetter the ball which limits lift. There’s a reason that MLB uses a humidor at Coors Field to combat the pro-offense effects of high elevation.

Dry air is great for fly balls as evidenced, in part, by the pro-offense atmospheres in Colorado and Arizona. It’s worth looking at humidity, just like you would the game time temperature and weather forecast, before placing your bets. A high-humidity day might be good for the under and vice versa.

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