MLB: Weekly Faves/Dogs Midseason Report

Favorites & Underdogs Separated by Only 6.09 Units at 2024 Season Break

July 16, 2024 142 3 minutes readMLB Picks & Parlays

MLB: Weekly Faves/Dogs Midseason Report — HEATHER BARRY / GETTY IMAGES

The Cleveland Guardians Lead Winnings By A Mile
Bettors Finding Success Betting Underdogs
July Has Been the Month for Dogs

It’s been another difficult season for bettors because it’s been difficult to find a clear path to winning. In 2024, favorites are 833-616 (.575) costing the public 36.52 units while betting straight underdogs are -30.43 units. That seems right considering over the last three seasons favorites are 3700-2600 (.587, -210.85) and underdogs are -246.50.

Of course that is not how we wager, let’s take our MLB Weekly Faves/Dogs Midseason Report to another level by digging deeper to find the wagering silver lining in what looks like a difficult path for betters.

The Cleveland Guardians Lead Winnings By A Mile

When it comes to betting, the public tends to lean on favorites and there is no better favorite to wager on than the Cleveland Guardians who are 42-18 (70%) winning 13.44 units. They’re almost seven units ahead of the Philadelphia Phillies (54-26) with 6.77 units and the Kansas City Royals (26-12) 6.60 units.

If Cleveland turns a profit in 2024, it will be the fourth in five seasons that the Guardians have finished in the black. On the back side of those numbers are the Detroit Tigers who are last in units won as a favorite (-10.19). They’re followed by the Miami Marlins (4-12, -9.15) and the Houston Astros (38-33, +8.28). Let’s break it down a little further.

Home favorites are 542-389 (.582) in 2024, but not good enough to turn a profit with 25.68 units lost. Home underdogs are down 9.91 units. The Guardians (28-9) are once again on top with 11.18 units won as a home favorite followed by the Kansas City Royals (18-4, 8.63 units) and Philadelphia Phillies (36-13, +7.60 units).

The Miami Marlins are on the bottom of the list with a 4-12 record (-9.15) with the Detroit Tigers (13-17, -7.84) and the Red Sox (16-18, -6.69). Our mid-season MLB power rankings have the Philadelphia Phillies (62-34) on top of the list followed by the New York Yankees (58-40), Los Angeles Dodgers (56-41), Cleveland Guardians (58-37), and Baltimore Orioles (58-38).

Bettors Finding Success Betting Underdogs

When bettors are on underdogs this season, they are cashing tickets. When underdogs are receiving the majority of money (50%+) bettors are 60-59 (+3.15). That’s a lot better than when the public was on the favorite, losing -21.18 units behind a record of 485-389 (.555).

If bettors finish the season with a winning record when betting dogs, it will be the first time in five years that a profit has been turned. When the public backs the home underdog they’ve fared better with a 28-24 record (+4.19 units) but just 494-344 (.590, -19.22) when backing home favorites.

There was a sweet pocket for bettors and were betting on MLB teams that were between -130 to +130, handing bettors a record of 322-271 (.543) +1301. Something to think about moving forward.

July Has Been the Month for Dogs

The 2024 season hasn’t been great for underdogs, but July is turning out to be a different story with an 87-101 record, pushing out 13.41 units of profit. That’s been a massive contrast to June when dogs lost -41.94 units. So far this season, underdogs have dropped 30.43 units.

Road dogs in July experienced quite the turnaround with 16.85 units won, after producing a 203-322 (.387) record in May and June with -49.40 units lost. The Cubs go into the break with a 5-2 record as a dog (+5.18) followed by the Cincinnati Reds (3-0) +5.02 units, and Arizona Diamondbacks (4-1) +4.35 units.

During the MLB all-star break we won’t have the best MLB bets today but if you must play this would be a good time to get down on some of your MLB prop bets today to make the all-star game more fun don’t play seriously until the MLB regular season begins again.

That does it for the MLB Weekly Faves/Dogs Midseason Report, all the best until the season starts back up on Friday.

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