MLB: Weekly Home/Road Report for August 7th
When Road Teams have Winning Records, Bet on Big returns
Weekly Home/Road Report for August 7th
Road teams continued their rebound this past week with an incredible 10.35 units of profit behind a record of 45-41. That added to a two-week record of 95-87, producing 18.89 units. Overall in 2024, home teams are 892-804 (.526, -55.53) while road teams inch closer to the even mark, down 16.51 units.
- The Miami Marlins were the top money maker on the road with a 3-2 record (+4.65), followed by the Boston Red Sox at 4-1 (+3.74) and the Arizona Diamondbacks who finished 3-1 (+2.22). At home, the Cubs led the way with 1.72 units won (4-2), barely sneaking past the Washington Nationals (3-2, +1.49) and the Colorado Rockies (1-0, +1.44).
Let’s start our weekly home/road report for August 7th by going deeper into the numbers so you can cash more tickets.
Books Experience Another Perfect Week
Sportsbooks will tell you that if they come out a winner with the public winning the majority of the decisions, that would make for the perfect Summer. That’s exactly what happened last week with bettors cashing 49 of 86 decisions (.570) but that wasn’t enough to overcome large moneylines (-0.18 units).
This MLB season the public has won 57% of their wagers, but is still in the red with 37.05 units lost, adding to a 20-year run of the public winning the majority of their wagers but not enough to produce a winning season. The closest the books came to a losing season was in 2016 when they squeezed out a profit of 11.75 units while the Joes were 1362-1030 (.569).
Last year, the public had its worst season with 150.28 units lost behind a win percentage of .554 (1321-1062). Bettors were all over the road teams with a 23-15 (.605) record when receiving the majority of money wagered, while home teams cost your bankroll -4.43 units.
The Arizona Diamondbacks were a friend to your money with a perfect 3-0 (+2.37) record when getting more than 50% of the MLB betting odds money, followed by the San Francisco Giants (4-1, +2.23) and the San Diego Padres (4-1, +1.61).
New Customers Only. Visit BETMGM.COM for Terms & Conditions. 21+ Years of Age or Olders. MI, NJ, PA OR WV Only. Excludes Michigan DISASSOCIATED PERSONS. Please Gamble Responsibly, Gambling Problem? CALL 1-800-270-7117 FOR CONFIDENTIAL HELP (MI). 1-800-GAMBLER (MI, NJ, PA, WV)
Betting The Sweet Spot With Road Teams
This week we wanted to see how home teams fared when the total was eight or more. Did home MLB teams perform better when the oddsmakers anticipate a high-scoring game? Using this filter we see home teams winning just 33 of the 72 match-ups (.458) over the previous seven days (-9.28 units) when the total was eight or more.
Home clubs were much better when the total was below 8 with an 8-6 record (-0.22), but has this been the case for the entire season or has this week been a one-off? After adjusting the filter to home team records when the total is nine or more the outcome requires more thought.
Although the road teams still don’t have a winning record, it’s closer than you may think at 240-226 (.515, -11.53) in favor of home teams. Home records when the total is less than nine are 652-578 (.530, -44.00 units).
Although the home team wins percentage is better when the totals are lower, the public is getting burned by high-priced home favorites when the total indicates a close pitching match-up or two offenses that may be struggling by setting the number less than nine.
Our MLB predictions for the rest of the season are to look for the road teams involving high totals,l but the key is to lay less than -130. If you stayed between +110 and -130, your bankroll would have added 11.53 units behind a sparkling record of 92-75 (.551) in 2024.
First Game Of Road Trip Results In Strong Returns
This section examines how successful a bettor would be if he wagered on or against teams coming off different lengths of road or home games. For instance, what record would a bettor have if they wagered against a team on the road after playing three straight home games?
We start with this example because the public would have done extremely well, winning 25.10 units in 2024 with a record of 140-126. That success does a complete turnaround if a team plays their first game on the road after playing four straight at home. Betting against these clubs would cost your bankroll 8.10 units.
For some reason, the extra game at home helped these teams, but the reality is, it’s probably just how the numbers fell rather than being a formidable trend. We widened the gap to find that betting against teams that have played six straight at home would take 32.89 units out of your bankroll with a record of 95-124.
- When we combined the total record when wagering against teams with a previous homestand of three or more, we found it’s not profitable with 14.38 units lost and a record of 552-585, but it does beat betting against teams coming off a road trip of three or more (-34.80 units).
This may fly in the face of what many think is a good betting strategy but there is a clean solution. We’ve already uncovered a profitable trend when betting on road teams coming off three games at home but wagering on teams playing an opponent coming off a streak of seven or more MLB games at home has been incredible with a record of 95-78 (+15.39 units).
That’s a lot to digest but once you do it should help with your MLB parlays today. That does it for your Weekly Home/Road Report for August 7th, all the best to your bankrolls this week.
For MLB betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
