MLB-Worst White Sox Seek Upset of Astros

The Houston Astros, finally playing like the team everyone expected, take an eight-game winning streak into a weekend series with the lowly Chicago White Sox. The White Sox recently lost a franchise-record 21 straight games and may challenge the 1962 New York Mets for the worst record in MLB history.

For your White Sox vs Astros picks, Houston is a -182 moneyline favorite in Friday’s opener and +110 run line favorite. The total is 8.5 runs.

The Astros hold a three-game lead in the AL West over the Seattle Mariners and will look build on that cushion this weekend. Houston’s pitching staff has been incredible during this run, allowing a total of just 20 runs. It has given up two runs or fewer in each of the past four wins, the last three of which were against the Tampa Bay Rays. When Houston is getting good starts from up and down its rotation — don’t sleep on the AL Cy Young odds for Framber Valdez or Ronel Blanco — it’s hard to beat.

The White Sox, on the other hand, are terrible across the board. There’s no way to sugarcoat it. They’re basically last in every offensive category and are close to the bottom in pitching as well. So, this is a series the Astros really need to take full advantage of.

Astros’ Rotation Locked In

If you are making White Sox vs Astros picks, it’ll be hard not to focus in on how good Houston’s pitching has been lately versus how terrible Chicago’s lineup is.

The Astros have three of their better arms lined up in this series: Spencer Arrighetti, Hunter Brown and Valdez. Arrighetti and Brown have really turned their seasons around after tough starts and Valdez is as consistent as they come.

The Astros’ rotation is third in strikeout rate and second in hit rate but it does walk a lot of guys. However, that effect is negated a bit by the fact that the White Sox don’t walk much and really struggle to get on base.

Houston’s starters should shine against Chicago’s makeshift lineup, which is even worse now that Tommy Pham, Paul DeJong and Eloy Jiménez have all been traded.

Houston’s odds to win the World Series have been slowly creeping up, in large part because of its starting pitching. With Justin Verlander due back soon, the Astros could choose to move to a six-man rotation. After having hardly any rotation depth due to injuries, they may soon have a plethora of effective options.

It’s Ugly After Crochet

The only good news here for the Chicago side of the White Sox vs Astros picks is that Garrett Crochet is starting on Friday against Arrighetti. Somewhat surprisingly, Crochet — as Chicago’s best starter — was not traded at the deadline, and while he has been so-so over the past month and a half as the White Sox have dialed back his workload, he still has some of the best pure stuff in baseball. Even a good lineup like Houston’s could have some trouble.

The White Sox are at a pretty big disadvantage for Saturday and Sunday’s games, though, because Chris Flexon and rookie Ky Bush have been rather unimpressive this season. Flexen has a 5.34 ERA and 1.50 WHIP across 25 appearances, while Bush has just made two starts as a big-leaguer and neither were particularly good. He held the Yankees to two runs over 4 2/3 innings this week but walked seven batters, two more than his debut.

While Houston is only 10th in baseball in on-base percentage, it’s not wise to give an offense of its caliber so many free base-runners. That’s a recipe for disaster for a team like the White Sox, who are already behind the eight-ball in pretty much every game.

Astros Should Roll

The MLB standings tell all you really need to know about this matchup. It’s not great value, but for Friday’s game, take the Astros as +110 run line favorites. They should easily beat up on the White Sox, and while that’s far from a guarantee because baseball is baseball, this bet offers strong value.

Arrighetti has given up three runs or fewer in five of his last six starts and is coming off consecutive outings with 12-plus strikeouts.

Because he’ll be opposing Crochet, consider also betting on the under 8.5 runs at -115. Houston may beat up Chicago’s bullpen, but this could be a relatively low-scoring affair with two good starters on the mound.

For MLB betting news, odds, analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine

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