Monday’s Major League Baseball Recap

Public Betting Produced An 8-3 result, Pirates Help Books

MLB Monday results show the public with another winning day on the diamond after the higher percentage of money wagered won eight of 11 games (+439 units) won. However, it could have been worse with over 55,000 tickets written on the Pittsburgh Pirates and Colorado Rockies match-up.

Over 89% of the moneyline money was on the Rockies who were demolished by the Pirates, 14-3. The betting public used underdogs to pad their success when the New York Mets (+115) and St. Louis Cardinals (+122) finished the night off. Let’s go through a few of last night’s impactful MLB betting odds and peek at the MLB standings.

Brewers, Burns Win Big for Bettors

With Corbin Burns on the mound, the professionals ran to the window to back the Brewers. When it was all said and done, 94% of the moneyline money was on Milwaukee, despite 51% of the overall tickets betting on the Seattle Mariners. The Brew Crew opened as -140 favorites, pushed up to -145 before the first pitch.

The pro’s got just enough from Burns before leaving in the sixth inning with a pectoral strain. It appears as if the injury just needs some rest, but Burns told reporters that he wasn’t taking any chances. Maybe something to watch when he makes his next scheduled start. The California native allowed two earned runs on three hits, helping the Brewers and bettors to a 7-3 win.

With Ohtani on The Hill, Under Bets Flowed In

MLB Monday results started with the annual Patriots Day game from Boston where Angels starter Shohei Ohtani opposed Brayan Bello for the Red Sox. As predicted, any time we see Ohtani on the mound, you can bet that the public and professionals will be on the over. 91% of the money wagered did just that, while 66% of the overall tickets followed suit.

If you watched the game you would know that neither starter was a factor in the end because of inclement weather. Ohtani threw just two innings, allowing one earned run and no hits, while Bello worked into the third giving up five earned in 2.2 innings of work. Bettors were ripping up their under tickets (8 under -105) when six runs were scored in the first inning and a half.

The game slowed down after a 56-minute rain delay, giving bettors some hope until the bottom of the ninth with the score 5-3. Unfortunately, Rafael Devers singled home Alex Verdugo with one out to push the game over the total. That ninth-inning single was also bad for the Angels‘ run-line bettors who at one point owned a 5-1 lead.

Favorites Continue to Dominate Early

We’ve written about this before but it’s a little different story almost three weeks into the season. Favorites are 152-95 (.615) but instead of the books sitting in the black because players can’t lay off large favorites, the players find themselves up a little (+56 units).

The obvious issue is, favorite bettors know they have to win 62% of their wagers to cover their wagers. This is why betting on baseball is the most difficult of all sports. Not only do you have to have to pick the favorites that present the best value, but you also need to have a healthy mix of underdogs on your card.

To help cut out some of the guesswork, eliminate the home favorites who are 90-63 this season but have cost bettors 853 units of profit. Look for road favorites for two reasons.

One, you’re still getting the better of the two teams with a pitching advantage, and second, the books won’t ask the public for as much juice as they would at home. Road favorites are 62-32 (.653) +909 units in 2023.

If you just have to wager on teams who are large favorites, consider chasing the teams that have dominated the MLB standings thus far. Taking all six division leaders you would be a cool 69-31 (69%) +2590 units.

When all six division leaders are favored bettors would be an incredible 49-10 (.831) +1961 units overall and 29-5 (.853) +1164 units at home. Today’s current leaders are killing it on the road (20-5, +797 units) as well, so like any good stock, let it ride until you see a downturn in performance.

There are ways to get the better teams on your daily betting card, you just have to know which teams are best to pull the trigger on and in what situation will be best for your bankroll.

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