Nationals vs Diamondbacks Series Betting: Key Pitching Duel

The Washington Nationals (49-57) aren’t out of the wild card race yet, but they need to go on a winning streak that will catapult them over six other teams fighting for a spot in the National League after splitting their last 10 games. The Arizona Diamondbacks (55-51) took two of three from the Pittsburgh Pirates this weekend but dropped game three to break their four-game winning streak (6-5).

• Oddsmakers have opened Arizona as a -165 favorite with a total of nine.

Monday’s first pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET / 6:40 p.m. PT and can be seen on MSN2 and the Arizona Diamondback Network (ARID). We analyze and predicate all three games in our Nationals vs Diamondbacks series betting preview.

Game One

Mitchell Parker (Wash) 5-6, 4.34 vs Jordan Montgomery (AZ) 7-5, 6.11

Early MLB betting patterns show that the public is all over the Arizona Diamondbacks, with 97% of the money and 90% of the tickets on the Snakes. It hasn’t been enough to push the moneyline off the opening -165, but it does give you an idea of where the number could go as the day progresses.

We haven’t had any large MLB wagers on the side but there was a steam move on the over.

Now that you know where the public is going, here’s where we recommend your money should be. Mitchell Parker is looking to break an ugly two-game streak where the rookie allowed 11 earned runs in his last 3.2 innings ( 26.98 era).

A look at the bigger picture shows the 24-year-old with an era of 7.89 over Parker’s previous five starts. Montgomery has a winning record with a poor ERA, meaning the Diamondbacks have scored plenty of runs for Montgomery (6.45 per game).

In Montgomery’s 14 starts, the Diamondbacks have scored four or more runs 10 times and six or more eight times. It’s safe to say that very few people had either of these teams at the top of their 2024 MLB predictions, but the Nationals have been among the MLB leaders 2024 against the moneyline with 8.87 units of profit based on a one-unit wager.

Only the Cleveland Guardians (+14.11) and Milwaukee Brewers (+9.86) have been better in 2024. With the Diamondbacks being one of the higher-scoring teams in the league, it seems like everything is pointing to an easy over, but you know what to do when it all looks obvious. We’re going under in game one.

Game Two

Patrick Corbin (Wash) 2-10, 5.26 vs Ryne Nelson (AZ) 7-6, 4.85

Patrick Corbin has not had a great MLB season but over his last two starts, the 35-year-old has allowed just four earned runs in their previous 13 innings ( 2.77 era). Corbin has averaged a strikeout and an inning while walking just three. Corbin has hit double-digit losses for the fourth straight season, compiling a four-year mark of 27-60. This season, opponents have hit .290 against Corbin.

It hasn’t been smooth sailing for Ryne Nelson, allowing seven runs in his last 18.2 innings (3.37 era), and is coming off a less-than-stellar performance in an 8-6 loss to the Kansas City Royals after allowing nine hits and two homers in six innings.

Teams have hit .292 against Nelson with a .810 OPS. It’s hard for us to see a low-scoring game, we recommend jumping on the over in game two.

Game Three

MacKenzie Gore (Wash) 6-8, 4.51 vs Zac Gallen (AZ) 8-5. 3.70

To end our Nationals vs Diamondbacks series betting preview, we have a decent pitching match-up to conclude the 3-game clash.

MacKenzie Gore has been getting smashed of late with 18 earned runs allowed in his last 15 innings (10.80 era), but that was good enough to help the Nationals to three wins in those four games. To make those numbers worse, opponents have hit .298 against Gore in his last five starts.

Zac Gallen’s recent form numbers aren’t much better, with 16 earned over the veteran’s last 24 innings (6.00). In his previous five starts, opponents have hit .283 with 28 hits allowed.

The price may be high, but we favor the Diamondbacks in game three. The MLB 2024 schedule is getting shorter by the day with each series becoming more critical by the week, all the best with your wagers this week as we head into the final two months.

Nationals vs Diamondbacks Betting Lines

For MLB picks and parlays, betting analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine

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