New York Mets at Miami Marlins Series Preview and Odds

Mets Look To Stay Hot

No team has been able to turn its fortunes around during this 2024 season more than the New York Mets who looked like they were dead in the water in late May and are now in sole possession of the third and final Wild Card spot in the National League.

They’ll try to bank some more wins this weekend against the Miami Marlins in a four-game wraparound series starting on Friday night in South Florida.

If you’re making Mets vs Marlins predictions, the Mets are -130 moneyline favorites and are +120 runline favorites. The total is eight runs.

New York has lost just one series since the end of May and is 25-11 since June 2nd. The starting rotation has been solid, yet unremarkable, and the bullpen has been really bad so it’s the resurgent lineup that is carrying the Mets as they continue to improve their MLB odds to make the postseason again after missing out in 2023.

Led by Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo at the top, the Mets’ lineup has been one of the best in baseball over the past six weeks.

Unfortunately for Miami, there has been no redemption in what has turned into a lost season. The Marlins are 30 games under .500, mired in the cellar of the NL East, and have won just three of their last 13 games.

Offense and starting pitching have doomed the Marlins. They didn’t necessarily expect to put up a ton of runs but, as a team built on starting pitching, the rotation issues — largely due to tons of injuries — have been particularly disappointing.

Mets logo New York Mets at Miami Marlins Marlins logo

📅 Day/Time: Friday, July 19th, 7:10 PM ET
📍 Location: LoanDepot Park; Miami, Florida

Mets logoMets Hit Tons Of Home Runs

A key thing to remember for any Mets vs Marlins predictions you may be making is that, during their great play in June and July, New York has heavily relied on the longball.

Even though Pete Alonso has had a relatively down year (by his standards), he’s leading a Mets squad that is fifth in the Majors in home runs and has five players with 10+ dingers. Lindor and Nimmo have hit for surprising power while the young Mark Vientos has burst onto the scene as one of the more dangerous hitters in the NL.

The Mets are in the top ten in pretty much every offensive category but they can go cold from time to time when their fly balls don’t leave the yard.

The key to stopping this team is to keep the ball on the ground and to keep Lindor and Nimmo in check because, once they moved to the No. 1 and No. 2 spots in the lineup, respectively, New York took off as a team.

Now, the Mets are far from expected World Series winners as they’re just three games over .500. However, they have played as one of the best teams in baseball since the start of June with a surprisingly balanced lineup. Miami will struggle to keep New York off the board, especially with their rotation still unsettled for this series.

Marlins logoMarlins’ Offense Is A Rough Watch

Another key component of Mets vs Marlins predictions is that Miami has one of the worst offenses in baseball and things, understandably, have continued to be a struggle after the Luis Arráez trade.

Miami has hit the fewest home runs in the Majors, has scored the second-fewest runs and has the second-lowest on-base percentage and OPS. They don’t even steal many bases or hit for a high average either. Any way you slice it, scratching across runs is very difficult for them.

  • So, even though the Mets’ pitching staff is far from dominant, they should be able to hold the Marlins in check. The only Miami regular with at least a 100 OPS+ is Jazz Chisholm Jr. and even he is likely to be moved within the next two weeks.

Guys like Chisholm Jr., Jake Burger, Bryan De La Cruz and Jesús Sánchez have some pop but they’re so inconsistent — and aren’t getting on base nearly enough even when they’re hot — that it’s hard for the Marlins to have sustained stretches of competent run-scoring.

There’s a reason why they’ve been toward the bottom of the Majors offensively all year.

Go With Mets To Win Big

  • Take the Mets on the runline to cover the 1.5-run spread at +120.

They’ll have Sean Manaea — who have given up just five runs (four earned) in his last four starts — on the mound against a Marlins starter to be determined but who will likely be Edward Cabrera or Trevor Rogers. Neither guy has been particularly good this season and, against the red-hot Mets, that could be a recipe for disaster.

  • One of the best MLB prop bets today is that the over eight runs at -110 will hit. The Mets hit a lot of home runs and the Marlins (especially Cabrera) give up a lot of home runs.

There should be a lot of scoring in this one, both by New York against Miami’s starter and even the Marlins against the Mets’ shaky bullpen.


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