NL Rookie of the Year Betting Odds: Cardinals’ Walker Favored

Arizona's Carroll, Dodgers' Vargas Next in Odds

Every Major League Baseball season sees a few rookies have a big impact with their respective teams. Some are prized prospects who great things are expected from. But others are players who fell through the cracks a bit on draft day and were taken in the late stages. These are the players with the lowest NL Rookie of the Year betting odds heading into the 2023 MLB season.

The Favorites

Cardinals logo Jordan Walker (St. Louis Cardinals) +400

Walker won’t turn 21 until May, but is coming off a strong spring training with the Cardinals. He hit .277 with three home runs and 9 RBI in just 65 at bats. In two minor league seasons he’s hit .310 with 33 home runs and 36 stolen bases.

He’s a big guy, listed at 6-foot-6 and 250 pounds, but has solid speed. He was taken in the first round of the 2020 draft by St. Louis. Walker is bypassing AAA and making the jump from AA, where he batted .306 with 19 homers and 22 stolen bases last season.

Diamondbacks logo Corbin Carroll (Arizona Diamondbacks) +450

Carroll showed a bit of what he could do last year, hitting .260 in 104 at-bats, just staying under the rookie guidelines. He was even better in spring training, where he hit .370 in 17 games. Carroll did show some power in the minors and hit a combined .310 over three seasons with 28 home runs and 52 stolen bases.

He was taken in the first round of the 2019 draft. With the Diamondbacks not expected to do well in the National League standings, he could see a lot of playing time. Carroll could be the most MLB-ready player of the bunch and is a decent pick with NL Rookie of the Year betting odds of +450.

Dodgers logo Miguel Vargas (Los Angeles Dodgers) +650

Vargas has tore up minor league pitching in his four years in the Dodgers’ farm system but hasn’t had the same success in the majors. He hit .170 in a brief stint with the team last year and hit .244 in spring training. Still, his minor league average of .313 shows he can hit the ball. He’s shown fair power and can steal some bases. The Dodgers are high on Vargas and that’s worth paying attention to.

The Contenders

Rockies logo Ezequiel Tovar (Colorado Rockies) +750

Tovar had a brief stint with the Rockies last season, hitting .212 in nine games. But he did hit .308 in spring training. Tovar has a high of 15 home runs in the minor leagues, although Coors Field could bring those numbers up a bit. His minor league career started a bit slow with the bat. But he did hit a combined .319 between AA and AAA last season. He’s another player who can steal a base, finishing with 17 last year.

Nationals logo Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals) +850

Cavalli is the first pitcher on the list, but not a player you want to put your money on. An injury that will require Tommy John surgery is likely to cost him all of the 2023 season. He was slated to be Washington’s No. 5 starter this season.

Brewers logo Sal Frelick (Milwaukee Brewers) +1000

Frelick has done about everything he can, but it wasn’t quite good enough for the Brewers. Despite a .385 batting average in spring training, Milwaukee decided to send Frelick to AAA to start the season. It’s unlikely that he’ll be there too long.

He hit .365 in 46 games for AAA Nashville last season. It’s not as though he has much to prove at that level. With his NL Rookie of the Year betting odds at +1000, Frelick is intriguing. But you hate to see him miss some time at the beginning of the season in the minor leagues.

Mets logo Francisco Alvarez (New York Mets) +1000

Alvarez is a solid catcher but his hitting at the Major League level causes a bit of concern. Even with the MLB betting lines showing him at +1000, it’s hard to pull the trigger on somebody who hit just .107 in spring training.

He was 2 for 12 in limited duty at the end of last season, so it wasn’t a huge surprise the Mets send him back down to AAA, for a little bit, at least. New York was happy with his defensive improvement over the spring, but if the batting average was higher he’d likely be in the big leagues.

The Longshots

Reds logo Spencer Steer (Cincinnati Reds) +1200

The NL Rookie of the Year betting odds on Steer seem a bit low. He’s unlikely to hit for a high average. His lifetime minor league batting average is 268 and he hit .211 in 28 games for the Reds last year. He did hit .271 in spring training, so he shouldn’t be overmatched.

Steer did struggle a bit in the field in the spring but has some power. He hit 23 and 24 home runs in his last two seasons in the minor leagues. Playing for the Reds should give him a bit more playing time.

Cubs logo Matt Mervis (Chicago Cubs) +1200

Mervis is another player who will begin the season in the minor leagues. He could be recalled soon depending on how Eric Hosmer starts the season. Mervis has big league power, hitting 36 home runs in the minors last year.

But he did struggle in spring training, hitting just .179. The Chicago Cubs have high hopes this season so are taking the safe route with the experienced player in Hosmer. But a fast start by Mervis could cause Chicago to change plans quickly.

Reds logo Elly De La Cruz (Cincinnati Reds) +1400

De La Cruz is one of the top prospects in baseball. But he was dealt a double blow – the Reds decided to send him to the minors. He also was injured and will be out until mid-April. He showed a bit of his potential last year with 28 homers and 47 stolen bases.

But that didn’t carry over to the spring. De La Cruz hit .200 in 25 at bats. In time, he’ll be a good player. But this wager is just focused on 2023 and it’s unlikely he’ll make a big enough splash to outdo a few of the others on this list.

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