Overachieving Royals Maintain Sights on AL Wild Card

Royals vs Reds MLB Odds Favor Cincinnati (-130)

The Cincinnati Reds, winners of four straight, look to stay hot when they host the Kansas City Royals for a three-game weekend set. Nick Martinez is slated to square off against Michael Lorenzen in Friday’s opener (6:40 p.m. ET) at Great American Ballpark.

Cincinnati is a -130 moneyline favorite for the opener, with Kansas City +110 to win outright. The projected total is 9.5, with the Under -120. Bettors can get the Over at +100.

What can bettors expect? Read on as we break down both teams and assess the Royals vs Reds MLB odds in our series preview.

Reds logo Cincinnati Reds vs Kansas City Royals Royals logo

Day/Time:
Location: Great American Ballpark
Streaming: MLB

Royals vs Reds Betting Trends

The Kansas City Royals are 65-55 against the run line, although they’ve covered in just three of their last 10 games. As for Over/Under, Kansas City is just 55-63-3.

The Cincinnati Reds, meanwhile, have been the most profitable team for bettors, going 69-52 against the run line for a cover rate of 57%. They’ve covered in five straight and eight of their last 10. Their record against the Over/Under is 55-61-5. It’s important to remember these betting trends when analyzing the Royals vs Reds MLB odds.

Royals? Playoffs?

The playoff chase continues for the Royals (66-55), who are clinging to the last American League wild card spot after dropping two of three at Minnesota. The Royals (projected for just 74.5 wins) have a 2.0 game lead on Boston, making them one of the most pleasant surprises in the majors.

Oddsmakers seem confident in their ability to hold off the Red Sox, pricing them -130 to make the postseason. They haven’t been a playoff team since 2015, when they won the World Series.

The underlying metrics are certainly encouraging. Kansas City’s plus-84 run differential leads the AL Central and is third in the AL behind New York (plus-118) and Baltimore (plus-90). The Royals also have a 54.6% cover rate against the run line, tied for the AL’s best.

The Royals are 14-10 in the second half, having done much of that damage (6-0) against the last-place White Sox.

Shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. has had a big hand in that success, hitting an MLB-leading .349 with 24 homers and 89 RBI. He’s been in the conversation for AL MVP all season, though outfielder Aaron Judge now looks like the prohibitive favorite across MLB starting lineups today.

Cincy Trending Up

Cincinnati has heated up of late, winning four straight to climb back to within a game of .500 at 60-61. The Reds haven’t had a winning record since May 1, when they were 16-15. This is where many expected them to be when they were projected for 81.5 wins.

Their three-game sweep of St. Louis pulled them within 4.5 games of the National League wild card. Three other clubs are either tied or behind them for the final spot. They’re still a longshot to make the playoffs, as some sportsbooks have even taken them off the MLB futures board.

The Reds outscored the Cardinals 19-5 and have allowed only 13 runs over their last five games. Their run differential is now plus-55, second to Milwaukee (plus-99) in the NL Central. They also own baseball’s best record against the run line, having covered in nine of their last 12 games.

Shortstop Elly De La Cruz is in midst of a breakout season, slugging 21 homers to go with an .840 OPS. He also leads baseball with 59 stolen bases, 24 more than anyone else.

Series Probables

Game 1

Friday, 6:40 p.m. ET

Michael Lorenzen vs Nick Martinez:

Lorenzen, acquired from Texas prior to the July 30 trade deadline, has a 3.60 ERA in two starts with his new team. The right-hander struggled against Cincinnati earlier this year, allowing five runs over six innings. MLB player props project him for 4.5 strikeouts, with the Over juiced to +130.

Martinez, meanwhile, owns a 3.16 ERA across 33 appearances, including seven starts. The right-hander has thrown 12 scoreless innings since being shifted back to the rotation on Aug. 5.

Be sure to keep that in mind when assessing the Royals vs Reds MLB odds.

Game 2

Saturday, 6:40 p.m. ET

Michael Wacha vs Nick Lodolo:

Wacha has allowed two or fewer runs in four of his last five starts, including a seven-inning gem against St. Louis last Saturday. The veteran right-hander is third on Kansas City with nine wins and has a respectable 3.50 ERA.

He faces Lodolo, who is 9-4 with a 3.99 ERA. The left-hander has shown impressive swing-and-miss stuff (9.2 K/9 innings), though walks remain a slight issue.

Game 3

Sunday, 1:40 p.m. ET

Brady Singer vs Andrew Abbott:

Singer allowed six runs over five innings in his last start against Minnesota, one shy of his season high, and has an 8.44 ERA in August. Despite that, Singer still has decent overall numbers (8-8, 3.32 ERA).

The Reds counter with Abbott, who is 10-9 with a 3.59 ERA. The southpaw bounced back from a difficult start against Miami to stymie St. Louis last Monday, allowing just one run in 6.2 frames.

For MLB betting news, odds, analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine


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